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En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing: Difference between revisions
En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing (view source)
Revision as of 15:59, 15 December 2021
, 15 December 2021Changed chapter on RCP to SSP to reflect V8.1 update
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Radiative forcing represents the difference between the energy that reaches the Earth each second and the energy that is released. It is rated at 2.8 W/m² (Watt per square | Radiative forcing represents the difference between the energy that reaches the Earth each second and the energy that is released. It is rated at 2.8 W/m² (Watt per square meter), 3.8 W/m² from the greenhouse effect and -1 W/m² from aerosols. | ||
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*Volcanic: Large volcanic eruptions send ash into the stratosphere. The ash in the troposphere is washed away by rain in one to three weeks, but the ash that reaches the stratosphere stays much longer. This is because, as the name suggests, the air in the stratosphere is stratified, i.e. vertically stable. There are no vertical convective movements, but there are very powerful horizontal currents, the jetstreams, which mix these ashes over the entire surface of the earth. The result is a cooling of the earth for a few months to a few years. The phenomenon is similar to that of aerosols, it's just that the origin of aerosols is not the same. | *Volcanic: Large volcanic eruptions send ash into the stratosphere. The ash in the troposphere is washed away by rain in one to three weeks, but the ash that reaches the stratosphere stays much longer. This is because, as the name suggests, the air in the stratosphere is stratified, i.e. vertically stable. There are no vertical convective movements, but there are very powerful horizontal currents, the jetstreams, which mix these ashes over the entire surface of the earth. The result is a cooling of the earth for a few months to a few years. The phenomenon is similar to that of aerosols, it's just that the origin of aerosols is not the same. | ||
===RCP === | ===SSP === | ||
RCP is an acronym for [[wikipedia:Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways|'''S'''hared '''S'''ocioeconomic '''P'''athways]] as introduced in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 of the IPCC<ref name=":0">Definition of Shared Socio-economic Pathways, full report 6, working group 1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report_smaller.pdf p1-100]</ref>. These are the different scenarios proposed by the IPCC. SSPs are “pathways” that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. The new SSPs offer five pathways that the world could take. The SSPs’ quantitative projections of 15 socio-economic drivers include population, gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization<ref name=":0" />. Compared to previous scenarios, these offer a broader view of a “business as usual” world without future climate policy, with global warming in 2100 ranging from a low of 3.1°C to a high of 5.1°C above pre-industrial levels. | |||
Overview of the five different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways<ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681]</ref>: | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|SSP1 | |||
|Sustainability – Taking the Green Road (Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation) | |||
|- | |||
|SSP2 | |||
|Middle of the Road (Medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation) | |||
|- | |||
|SSP3 | |||
|Regional Rivalry – A Rocky Road (High challenges to mitigation and adaptation) | |||
|- | |||
|SSP4 | |||
|Inequality – A Road Divided (Low challenges to mitigation, high challenges to adaptation) | |||
|- | |||
|SSP5 | |||
|Fossil-fuel intesive Development – Taking the Highway (High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation) | |||
|} | |||
===Popularisation content of the subject=== | ===Popularisation content of the subject=== | ||
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==Facilitation advice== | ==Facilitation advice== | ||
*To explain this card, we can use the metaphor of the "Greenhouse Effect" card. On the one hand, the cover around the Earth is thickening, this is the greenhouse effect, so we are accumulating energy. On the other hand, the room cools down, it's the aerosols, we lose energy. What happens? Should it be warmer or cooler under the | *To explain this card, we can use the metaphor of the "Greenhouse Effect" card. On the one hand, the cover around the Earth is thickening, this is the greenhouse effect, so we are accumulating energy. On the other hand, the room cools down, it's the aerosols, we lose energy. What happens? Should it be warmer or cooler under the blanket? Radiative forcing is simply a measure of the impact of both. We can see that the greenhouse effect is more important, so overall, the energy accumulates under the blanket. | ||
*The name of the card may sound scary, but it simply shows radiation that has been altered. Renaming the card makes it simpler. It could be called "Man-made radiation on Earth" or "Forced radiation". | *The name of the card may sound scary, but it simply shows radiation that has been altered. Renaming the card makes it simpler. It could be called "Man-made radiation on Earth" or "Forced radiation". | ||