En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing - Revision history

Lukas.Birn: Removed duplicate entry

2022-06-18T13:43:23Z

Removed duplicate entry

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:43, 18 June 2022
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	*Strat H<sub>2</sub>O [stratospheric water vapor]: Aircraft burn kerosene to propel themselves. This combustion, like all combustions, releases CO<sub>2</sub> and water vapour. Water vapour is usually not counted in the carbon footprint of hydrocarbons because these water molecules are intended to remain in the atmosphere for only one to three weeks before being washed away by rain. As far as aeroplanes are concerned, it's a bit different because they fly at an altitude, close to the stratosphere, where, as the name suggests, the air is stratified. There are no vertical convective movements, almost no clouds and no rain. When water vapour is emitted by aeroplanes, it can stay there for several years and at that point we can start to take into account its greenhouse effect.		*Strat H<sub>2</sub>O [stratospheric water vapor]: Aircraft burn kerosene to propel themselves. This combustion, like all combustions, releases CO<sub>2</sub> and water vapour. Water vapour is usually not counted in the carbon footprint of hydrocarbons because these water molecules are intended to remain in the atmosphere for only one to three weeks before being washed away by rain. As far as aeroplanes are concerned, it's a bit different because they fly at an altitude, close to the stratosphere, where, as the name suggests, the air is stratified. There are no vertical convective movements, almost no clouds and no rain. When water vapour is emitted by aeroplanes, it can stay there for several years and at that point we can start to take into account its greenhouse effect.
	*Trop. O<sub>3</sub> [Tropospheric Ozone]: Tropospheric ozone. Ozone is like cholesterol, it can be good and bad. The "good ozone" is stratospheric ozone, i.e. the ozone layer, which is very high in the atmosphere. It protects us from the sun's ultraviolet rays. The "bad ozone" is ground-level ozone, the ozone that is at ground level in "ozone pollution", especially in cities in hot weather. Ozone is a greenhouse gas, so as our activities produce it, its presence causes a positive radiative forcing. However, ozone is not included in carbon budgets. This is because we do not produce it directly. On the other hand, we do produce ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides (NO<sub>x</sub>), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) and carbon monoxide (CO).		*Trop. O<sub>3</sub> [Tropospheric Ozone]: Tropospheric ozone. Ozone is like cholesterol, it can be good and bad. The "good ozone" is stratospheric ozone, i.e. the ozone layer, which is very high in the atmosphere. It protects us from the sun's ultraviolet rays. The "bad ozone" is ground-level ozone, the ozone that is at ground level in "ozone pollution", especially in cities in hot weather. Ozone is a greenhouse gas, so as our activities produce it, its presence causes a positive radiative forcing. However, ozone is not included in carbon budgets. This is because we do not produce it directly. On the other hand, we do produce ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides (NO<sub>x</sub>), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) and carbon monoxide (CO).
	*Other WMGHG [Well Mixed ~~GreenHouse Gases]: Other WMGHG [Well Mixed GreenHouse~~ Gases]: Other well mixed GHGs, or long-lived GHGs (synonymous because if they are long-lived, then they have time to mix well) are mainly methane, nitrous oxide and some other gases such as HFCs.		*Other WMGHG [Well Mixed Greenhouse Gases]: Other well mixed GHGs, or long-lived GHGs (synonymous because if they are long-lived, then they have time to mix well) are mainly methane, nitrous oxide and some other gases such as HFCs.
	*CO<sub>2</sub>: We can see here that this is quantitatively the main element.		*CO<sub>2</sub>: We can see here that this is quantitatively the main element.

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	*Land Use] : Land use. For example, when deforestation, a dark green surface is replaced by a light beige surface. The albedo effect cools the earth.		*Land Use] : Land use. For example, when deforestation, a dark green surface is replaced by a light beige surface. The albedo effect cools the earth.
	*Stat. O<sub>3</sub> [stratospheric Ozone]: Stratospheric ozone. The ozone in the stratosphere, the "good ozone", which protects us from ultraviolet radiation. As the amount of ozone has decreased because of CFCs (the hole in the ozone layer), the greenhouse effect of this ozone has logically decreased. This is what you can see on this part of the graph.		*Stat. O<sub>3</sub> [stratospheric Ozone]: Stratospheric ozone. The ozone in the stratosphere, the "good ozone", which protects us from ultraviolet radiation. As the amount of ozone has decreased because of CFCs (the hole in the ozone layer), the greenhouse effect of this ozone has logically decreased. This is what you can see on this part of the graph.
	*Volcanic: Large volcanic eruptions send ash into the stratosphere. The ash in the troposphere is washed away by rain in one to three weeks, but the ash that reaches the stratosphere stays much longer. This is because, as the name suggests, the air in the stratosphere is stratified, i.e. vertically stable. There are no vertical convective movements, but there are very powerful horizontal currents, the ~~jetstreams~~, which mix these ashes over the entire surface of the earth. The result is a cooling of the earth for a few months to a few years. The phenomenon is similar to that of aerosols, it's just that the origin of aerosols is not the same.		*Volcanic: Large volcanic eruptions send ash into the stratosphere. The ash in the troposphere is washed away by rain in one to three weeks, but the ash that reaches the stratosphere stays much longer. This is because, as the name suggests, the air in the stratosphere is stratified, i.e. vertically stable. There are no vertical convective movements, but there are very powerful horizontal currents, the jet-streams, which mix these ashes over the entire surface of the earth. The result is a cooling of the earth for a few months to a few years. The phenomenon is similar to that of aerosols, it's just that the origin of aerosols is not the same.

	===SSP ===		===SSP ===

Lukas.Birn: Replaced RCP by SSP for consistency

2022-06-18T13:32:40Z

Replaced RCP by SSP for consistency

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:32, 18 June 2022
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	For more details on this graph, see the Radiative Forcing fact sheet.		For more details on this graph, see the Radiative Forcing fact sheet.

	The secondary graph represents the radiative forcing over two and a half centuries (history and projections). In the 5th IPCC report, the radiative forcing is 2.3 W/m<sup>2</sup>. The values of the forcing in 2100 gave their name to the IPCC scenarios (~~RCP~~ 2.6, ~~RCP~~ 4.5 etc.). The colours of these scenarios can be found in the graphs of maps n°5, 11, 15, 21, 22 and 24.		The secondary graph represents the radiative forcing over two and a half centuries (history and projections). In the 5th IPCC report, the radiative forcing is 2.3 W/m<sup>2</sup>. The values of the forcing in 2100 gave their name to the IPCC scenarios (SSP 2.6, SSP 4.5 etc.). The colours of these scenarios can be found in the graphs of maps n°5, 11, 15, 21, 22 and 24.

	For more details on this graph, see the fact sheet on ~~PCR~~ scenarios.		For more details on this graph, see the fact sheet on SSP scenarios.

	==To go further ==		==To go further ==
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	===SSP ===		===SSP ===

	~~RCP~~ is an acronym for [[wikipedia:Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways\|'''S'''hared '''S'''ocioeconomic '''P'''athways]] as introduced in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 of the IPCC<ref name=":0">Definition of Shared Socio-economic Pathways, full report 6, working group 1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report_smaller.pdf p1-100]</ref>. These are the different scenarios proposed by the IPCC. SSPs are “pathways” that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. The new SSPs offer five pathways that the world could take. The SSPs’ quantitative projections of 15 socio-economic drivers include population, gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization<ref name=":0" />. Compared to previous scenarios, these offer a broader view of a “business as usual” world without future climate policy, with global warming in 2100 ranging from a low of 3.1°C to a high of 5.1°C above pre-industrial levels.		SSP is an acronym for [[wikipedia:Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways\|'''S'''hared '''S'''ocioeconomic '''P'''athways]] as introduced in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 of the IPCC<ref name=":0">Definition of Shared Socio-economic Pathways, full report 6, working group 1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report_smaller.pdf p1-100]</ref>. These are the different scenarios proposed by the IPCC. SSPs are “pathways” that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. The new SSPs offer five pathways that the world could take. The SSPs’ quantitative projections of 15 socio-economic drivers include population, gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization<ref name=":0" />. Compared to previous scenarios, these offer a broader view of a “business as usual” world without future climate policy, with global warming in 2100 ranging from a low of 3.1°C to a high of 5.1°C above pre-industrial levels.

	Overview of the five different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways<ref>The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681]</ref>:		Overview of the five different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways<ref>The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681]</ref>:

X4resilience: updated reference 4

2021-12-15T15:01:47Z

updated reference 4

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:01, 15 December 2021
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	RCP is an acronym for [[wikipedia:Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways\|'''S'''hared '''S'''ocioeconomic '''P'''athways]] as introduced in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 of the IPCC<ref name=":0">Definition of Shared Socio-economic Pathways, full report 6, working group 1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report_smaller.pdf p1-100]</ref>. These are the different scenarios proposed by the IPCC. SSPs are “pathways” that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. The new SSPs offer five pathways that the world could take. The SSPs’ quantitative projections of 15 socio-economic drivers include population, gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization<ref name=":0" />. Compared to previous scenarios, these offer a broader view of a “business as usual” world without future climate policy, with global warming in 2100 ranging from a low of 3.1°C to a high of 5.1°C above pre-industrial levels.		RCP is an acronym for [[wikipedia:Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways\|'''S'''hared '''S'''ocioeconomic '''P'''athways]] as introduced in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 of the IPCC<ref name=":0">Definition of Shared Socio-economic Pathways, full report 6, working group 1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report_smaller.pdf p1-100]</ref>. These are the different scenarios proposed by the IPCC. SSPs are “pathways” that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. The new SSPs offer five pathways that the world could take. The SSPs’ quantitative projections of 15 socio-economic drivers include population, gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization<ref name=":0" />. Compared to previous scenarios, these offer a broader view of a “business as usual” world without future climate policy, with global warming in 2100 ranging from a low of 3.1°C to a high of 5.1°C above pre-industrial levels.

	Overview of the five different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways<ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681]</ref>:		Overview of the five different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways<ref>The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681]</ref>:
	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
	\|SSP1		\|SSP1

X4resilience: Changed chapter on RCP to SSP to reflect V8.1 update

2021-12-15T14:59:41Z

Changed chapter on RCP to SSP to reflect V8.1 update

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:59, 15 December 2021
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	[[File:En-en_adult_card_15_front.png\|400px]]		[[File:En-en_adult_card_15_front.png\|400px]]

	Radiative forcing represents the difference between the energy that reaches the Earth each second and the energy that is released. It is rated at 2.8 W/m² (Watt per square ~~metre~~), 3.8 W/m² from the greenhouse effect and -1 W/m² from aerosols.		Radiative forcing represents the difference between the energy that reaches the Earth each second and the energy that is released. It is rated at 2.8 W/m² (Watt per square meter), 3.8 W/m² from the greenhouse effect and -1 W/m² from aerosols.

	</center>		</center>
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	*Volcanic: Large volcanic eruptions send ash into the stratosphere. The ash in the troposphere is washed away by rain in one to three weeks, but the ash that reaches the stratosphere stays much longer. This is because, as the name suggests, the air in the stratosphere is stratified, i.e. vertically stable. There are no vertical convective movements, but there are very powerful horizontal currents, the jetstreams, which mix these ashes over the entire surface of the earth. The result is a cooling of the earth for a few months to a few years. The phenomenon is similar to that of aerosols, it's just that the origin of aerosols is not the same.		*Volcanic: Large volcanic eruptions send ash into the stratosphere. The ash in the troposphere is washed away by rain in one to three weeks, but the ash that reaches the stratosphere stays much longer. This is because, as the name suggests, the air in the stratosphere is stratified, i.e. vertically stable. There are no vertical convective movements, but there are very powerful horizontal currents, the jetstreams, which mix these ashes over the entire surface of the earth. The result is a cooling of the earth for a few months to a few years. The phenomenon is similar to that of aerosols, it's just that the origin of aerosols is not the same.

	===RCP ===		===SSP ===

			RCP is an acronym for [[wikipedia:Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways\|'''S'''hared '''S'''ocioeconomic '''P'''athways]] as introduced in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 of the IPCC<ref name=":0">Definition of Shared Socio-economic Pathways, full report 6, working group 1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report_smaller.pdf p1-100]</ref>. These are the different scenarios proposed by the IPCC. SSPs are “pathways” that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. The new SSPs offer five pathways that the world could take. The SSPs’ quantitative projections of 15 socio-economic drivers include population, gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization<ref name=":0" />. Compared to previous scenarios, these offer a broader view of a “business as usual” world without future climate policy, with global warming in 2100 ranging from a low of 3.1°C to a high of 5.1°C above pre-industrial levels.

			Overview of the five different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways<ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681]</ref>:
			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|SSP1
			\|Sustainability – Taking the Green Road (Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
			\|-
			\|SSP2
			\|Middle of the Road (Medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
			\|-
			\|SSP3
			\|Regional Rivalry – A Rocky Road (High challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
			\|-
			\|SSP4
			\|Inequality – A Road Divided (Low challenges to mitigation, high challenges to adaptation)
			\|-
			\|SSP5
			\|Fossil-fuel intesive Development – Taking the Highway (High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation)
			\|}

	RCP is an acronym for '''R'''epresentative '''C'''oncentration '''P'''athways. These are the different scenarios proposed by the IPCC. RCPs allow the estimation of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations that can be converted approximately into W/m<sup>2</sup>. Approximate equations to do this exist for CO<sub>2</sub> (log), CH<sub>4</sub> (quadratic) etc. Forcing is not prescribed to climate models, they are imposed either an evolution of concentrations (when they do not represent the carbon cycle) or an evolution of emissions (in this case they also calculate the feedbacks of the carbon cycle). The forcing is the result of the calculation of the atmospheric radiative code specific to each model, which is not a perfect calculation (line by line) but simplified (band by band).
	===Popularisation content of the subject===		===Popularisation content of the subject===

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	==Facilitation advice==		==Facilitation advice==

	*To explain this card, we can use the metaphor of the "Greenhouse Effect" card. On the one hand, the cover around the Earth is thickening, this is the greenhouse effect, so we are accumulating energy. On the other hand, the room cools down, it's the aerosols, we lose energy. What happens? Should it be warmer or cooler under the ~~blanklet~~? Radiative forcing is simply a measure of the impact of both. We can see that the greenhouse effect is more important, so overall, the energy accumulates under the ~~blanklet~~.		*To explain this card, we can use the metaphor of the "Greenhouse Effect" card. On the one hand, the cover around the Earth is thickening, this is the greenhouse effect, so we are accumulating energy. On the other hand, the room cools down, it's the aerosols, we lose energy. What happens? Should it be warmer or cooler under the blanket? Radiative forcing is simply a measure of the impact of both. We can see that the greenhouse effect is more important, so overall, the energy accumulates under the blanket.
	*The name of the card may sound scary, but it simply shows radiation that has been altered. Renaming the card makes it simpler. It could be called "Man-made radiation on Earth" or "Forced radiation".		*The name of the card may sound scary, but it simply shows radiation that has been altered. Renaming the card makes it simpler. It could be called "Man-made radiation on Earth" or "Forced radiation".

Karen Schmitt at 13:18, 30 October 2021

2021-10-30T13:18:04Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:18, 30 October 2021
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	[[File:En-en_adult_card_15_front.png\|400px]]		[[File:En-en_adult_card_15_front.png\|400px]]

	Radiative forcing represents the difference between the energy that reaches the Earth each second and the energy that is released. It is rated at 2.8 W/m² (Watt per square metre), 3.8 W/m² from the greenhouse effect and -1 W/m² from aerosols		Radiative forcing represents the difference between the energy that reaches the Earth each second and the energy that is released. It is rated at 2.8 W/m² (Watt per square metre), 3.8 W/m² from the greenhouse effect and -1 W/m² from aerosols.

	</center>		</center>

Karen Schmitt: Structure change

2021-10-30T13:12:14Z

Structure change

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:12, 30 October 2021
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	{{Card		== Card #15: Radiative Forcing ==
	~~\|number=~~15		<center>
	~~\|version~~=~~adult~~
	~~\|title~~=~~Radiative forcing~~		[[File:En-en_adult_card_15_front.png\|400px]]
	}}<~~ref~~>[~~https~~:~~//www~~.~~ipcc~~.ch/~~site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final~~.~~pdf#page=715 Figure~~ 8~~.18, Report 5 Working Group~~ 1]</~~ref~~>
			Radiative forcing represents the difference between the energy that reaches the Earth each second and the energy that is released. It is rated at 2.8 W/m² (Watt per square metre), 3.8 W/m² from the greenhouse effect and -1 W/m² from aerosols

			</center>

	==Explanation==		==Explanation==
	Together with the coccolithophores, this card is the one that impresses the players the most. It is important to explain it well. One way to play it down is to say that Radiative Forcing is just a measurement.		Together with the coccolithophores, this card is the one that impresses the players the most. It is important to explain it well. One way to play it down is to say that Radiative Forcing is just a measurement.

JulienR: /* Other possible links */ link 6->15 and 18->15 were the other way around (consequences instead of causes)

2021-04-08T09:25:34Z

Other possible links: link 6->15 and 18->15 were the other way around (consequences instead of causes)

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:25, 8 April 2021
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	==Other possible links ==		==Other possible links ==

	===Other ~~consequences~~===		===Other causes===

			*[[En-en adult card 6 deforestation\|Deforestation]] When the forest is cut down and replaced by a meadow, it is the opposite, a dark surface (the foliage) is replaced by a light surface (the meadow). All in all, the artificialization of the soil has a cooling effect on the climate.
	*[[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice\|Melting of Sea Ice]] When sea ice melts, a white surface is replaced by a navy blue surface, which has a lower albedo and therefore absorbs more energy.		*[[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice\|Melting of Sea Ice]] When sea ice melts, a white surface is replaced by a navy blue surface, which has a lower albedo and therefore absorbs more energy.
	*[[En-en adult card 6 deforestation\|Deforestation]] When the forest is cut down and replaced by a meadow, it is the opposite, a dark surface (the foliage) is replaced by a light surface (the meadow). All in all, the artificialization of the soil has a cooling effect on the climate.
	==References ==		==References ==
	<references />		<references />

	[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_15_forçage_radiatif]]		[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_15_forçage_radiatif]]

Karen Schmitt: Minor corrections

2021-04-05T14:32:17Z

Minor corrections

Show changes

Ouahcene at 11:05, 5 April 2021

2021-04-05T11:05:49Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:05, 5 April 2021
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	\|title=Radiative forcing		\|title=Radiative forcing
	}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf#page=715 Figure 8.18, Report 5 Working Group 1]</ref>		}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf#page=715 Figure 8.18, Report 5 Working Group 1]</ref>

			== Correction==
			===Causes===
			* [[En-en_adult_card_13_additional_greenhouse_effect\|Additional Greenhouse Effect]]
			* [[En-en_adult_card_10_aerosols\|Aerosols]]
			=== Consequences ===
			* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget\|Energy Budget]]


	== Explanation ==		== Explanation ==
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	== Other possible links ==		== Other possible links ==

	=== ~~Consequences~~ ===		=== Other consequences ===

	* [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice\|Melting of Sea Ice]] pack and [[En-en adult card 6 deforestation\|Deforestation]] When sea ice melts, a white surface is replaced by a navy blue surface, which has a lower [https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo albedo] and therefore absorbs more energy. When the forest is cut down and replaced by a meadow, it is the opposite, a dark surface (the foliage) is replaced by a light surface (the meadow). All in all, the artificialization of the soil has a cooling effect on the climate.		* [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice\|Melting of Sea Ice]] pack and [[En-en adult card 6 deforestation\|Deforestation]] When sea ice melts, a white surface is replaced by a navy blue surface, which has a lower [https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo albedo] and therefore absorbs more energy. When the forest is cut down and replaced by a meadow, it is the opposite, a dark surface (the foliage) is replaced by a light surface (the meadow). All in all, the artificialization of the soil has a cooling effect on the climate.

Karen Schmitt: Minor corrections

2021-02-13T14:14:39Z

Minor corrections

Show changes