Climate Fresk - User contributions [en]

En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing

2021-12-15T15:01:47Z

X4resilience: updated reference 4

== Card #15: Radiative Forcing ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_15_front.png|400px]]

Radiative forcing represents the difference between the energy that reaches the Earth each second and the energy that is released. It is rated at 2.8 W/m² (Watt per square meter), 3.8 W/m² from the greenhouse effect and -1 W/m² from aerosols.

</center>

==Explanation==
Together with the coccolithophores, this card is the one that impresses the players the most. It is important to explain it well. One way to play it down is to say that Radiative Forcing is just a measurement.

The Earth receives energy from the Sun and radiates it back to space in the form of infrared rays. It should be in a state of in thermal equilibrium and the average temperature should be constant.

Anything that causes the Earth to move away from this thermal equilibrium, whether natural (sun, volcanoes) or anthropogenic (aerosols, GHGs), is called radiative forcing.

Caution: the definition has been simplified for educational purposes. A rigorous definition would be as follows: "Radiative forcing is the measure of the imbalance between the energy that arrives every second on Earth and the energy that would leave if the temperature had remained fixed since 1750". As the earth's temperature has risen in the meantime, the delta between instantaneous heat exchanges has decreased. Similarly, in 2050, in the [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing#RCP|RCP]]2.6 scenario, the forcing will be 2.6 W/m2, but the temperature will have stabilised, meaning that the delta between incoming and outgoing energy will be zero.

On the main graph, we can see the different components of the radiative forcing :

*in the upper part, the warming effects
* in the lower part, the cooling effects

The greenhouse effect (CO2 + Other WMGHG + Trop O3) represents a positive forcing of 3.1 W/m2 . It is therefore in the upper part of the graph.

Aerosols (Aer - Rad Int. + Aer - Cld Int.) have a cooling effect and are therefore in the lower part of the graph.

For more details on this graph, see the Radiative Forcing fact sheet.

The secondary graph represents the radiative forcing over two and a half centuries (history and projections). In the 5th IPCC report, the radiative forcing is 2.3 W/m2. The values of the forcing in 2100 gave their name to the IPCC scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 etc.). The colours of these scenarios can be found in the graphs of maps n°5, 11, 15, 21, 22 and 24.

For more details on this graph, see the fact sheet on PCR scenarios.

==To go further ==

=== Key points===

*Card 15 suggests that 2.3 W/m2 more energy is coming in than is going out, at any given moment. This is not the case! This is the definition of the "radiation balance" and its value is almost zero: as much energy enters as leaves (or 1 W/m2 maximum to take into account the time it takes to reach equilibrium due to warming). In the IPCC report, radiative forcing is the imbalance of the energy flux that would exist if the Earth's surface (or the oceans) had been prevented from warming compared to the values that existed in 1750. But the Earth's surface has warmed (by about 1°C) and the "radiative balance", not to be confused with radiative forcing, is almost zero. The legend in Figure 8.18 on page 699 of the IPCC report, on the back of Map 15, should be understood as the flow of energy that would not be returned to space if the Earth's surface had remained stuck at its 1750 temperature. Since the radiation balance is zero, this flow of energy, called "radiative forcing", is the one that has warmed the Earth.
*There is a simple and graphic way to explain the radiative forcing using the image of the greenhouse effect map. Note the arrows on the map from 1 to 4 (1 for reflection, 2 for insolation, 3 for infrared, and 4 for the greenhouse effect arrow). Let's also add a value 5 which is the amount of energy emitted by infrared radiation on the Earth's surface. First of all, it must be said that every warm body emits radiation. The hotter the body is, the more energy it radiates and returns. The amount of energy that reaches the earth is 2-1. The amount of energy leaving the Earth is 3. The amount of energy emitted by the earth in infrared radiation is 5. In 1750, what came in was worth what went out, so 2-1 = 3. We are in equilibrium. As the greenhouse effect increases, arrow 4 grows. This is the contribution of 3.1W/m2. On the other hand, aerosols increase the size of arrow 1. This is the -0.8 W/m2 because it is the amount of energy that does not reach the Earth.
*To understand the previous diagram, we can look at the values directly. Here is a table showing the radiation balance values:

{| class="wikitable"
!
!Source
!1750
!2020
|-
| rowspan="3" |Recep
|ESun
|341
|341
|-
| ERefl
|181
| 181.8
|-
|ESurf
|160
|159.2
|-
| rowspan="3" |Emis
| EEmisSurf
|490
|492
|-
|EGreenH
|330
|333.1
|-
|ESpace
|160
|158.9
|-
| rowspan="2" |Total
|EWarm
|490
|492.3
|-
|ECool
|490
|492
|}
The values presented in the table in W/m2 are as follows:

*ESun the energy emitted by the sun that reaches the Earth
*ERefl the energy reflected from Earth back into space
*ESurf the energy that reaches the earth's surface
*EEmisSurf the energy emitted by the Earth's surface
*EGreenH the energy that remains on Earth because of the greenhouse effect.
*ESpace the energy that goes back into space
*EWarm the energy that heats the Earth
*ECool that cools the Earth

So we have EWarm = ESurf + EGreenH, and ECool = EEmisSurf . The current radiative balance is EWarm-2020 - ECool2020 which is therefore 0.3 W/m2, and the radiative forcing is EWarm-2020 - ECool1750 which is therefore 2.3 W/m2.

This card should be removed for the simplified version.

===Detail item by item===

====Warming effects====

*Solar: the intensity of solar spots varies over time, with a period of 11 years. Hence the small bumps.
*BC [Black Carbon] on snow: Black carbon is soot (see map 10 Aerosols) that is deposited on snow that is white, and by albedo effect, it warms up.
*Contrails: Contrails are the streaks in aeroplanes due to aerosols and water vapour present and emitted. These trails are like artificial clouds (cirrus clouds, in this case, given their altitude and shape). At this altitude, the warming effect of the clouds (greenhouse effect) outweighs the cooling effect (albedo).
*Strat H2O [stratospheric water vapor]: Aircraft burn kerosene to propel themselves. This combustion, like all combustions, releases CO2 and water vapour. Water vapour is usually not counted in the carbon footprint of hydrocarbons because these water molecules are intended to remain in the atmosphere for only one to three weeks before being washed away by rain. As far as aeroplanes are concerned, it's a bit different because they fly at an altitude, close to the stratosphere, where, as the name suggests, the air is stratified. There are no vertical convective movements, almost no clouds and no rain. When water vapour is emitted by aeroplanes, it can stay there for several years and at that point we can start to take into account its greenhouse effect.
*Trop. O3 [Tropospheric Ozone]: Tropospheric ozone. Ozone is like cholesterol, it can be good and bad. The "good ozone" is stratospheric ozone, i.e. the ozone layer, which is very high in the atmosphere. It protects us from the sun's ultraviolet rays. The "bad ozone" is ground-level ozone, the ozone that is at ground level in "ozone pollution", especially in cities in hot weather. Ozone is a greenhouse gas, so as our activities produce it, its presence causes a positive radiative forcing. However, ozone is not included in carbon budgets. This is because we do not produce it directly. On the other hand, we do produce ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO).
*Other WMGHG [Well Mixed GreenHouse Gases]: Other WMGHG [Well Mixed GreenHouse Gases]: Other well mixed GHGs, or long-lived GHGs (synonymous because if they are long-lived, then they have time to mix well) are mainly methane, nitrous oxide and some other gases such as HFCs.
*CO2: We can see here that this is quantitatively the main element.

====Cooling effects====

*Aer - Rad Int. Aerosols - Radiation Interaction]: Aerosols-Radiation Interaction. This is the interaction of aerosols with the sun's rays. Clearly, it is the occulting effect. They prevent the sun's rays from reaching the ground. It is also said to be their direct effect<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=209 Definition of aerosol-radiation interaction, glossary of report 5, working group 1]</ref>.
* Aer - Cld Int. [Aerosols - Clouds Interaction] : Aerosols-Cloud interaction. Aerosols are a condensation nucleus of clouds which allows their manufacture.<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=209 Definition of aerosol-cloud interaction, glossary of report 5, working group 1]</ref> This is the indirect effect of aerosols.
*Land Use] : Land use. For example, when deforestation, a dark green surface is replaced by a light beige surface. The albedo effect cools the earth.
*Stat. O3 [stratospheric Ozone]: Stratospheric ozone. The ozone in the stratosphere, the "good ozone", which protects us from ultraviolet radiation. As the amount of ozone has decreased because of CFCs (the hole in the ozone layer), the greenhouse effect of this ozone has logically decreased. This is what you can see on this part of the graph.
*Volcanic: Large volcanic eruptions send ash into the stratosphere. The ash in the troposphere is washed away by rain in one to three weeks, but the ash that reaches the stratosphere stays much longer. This is because, as the name suggests, the air in the stratosphere is stratified, i.e. vertically stable. There are no vertical convective movements, but there are very powerful horizontal currents, the jetstreams, which mix these ashes over the entire surface of the earth. The result is a cooling of the earth for a few months to a few years. The phenomenon is similar to that of aerosols, it's just that the origin of aerosols is not the same.

===SSP ===

RCP is an acronym for [[wikipedia:Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways|'''S'''hared '''S'''ocioeconomic '''P'''athways]] as introduced in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 of the IPCC<ref name=":0">Definition of Shared Socio-economic Pathways, full report 6, working group 1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report_smaller.pdf p1-100]</ref>. These are the different scenarios proposed by the IPCC. SSPs are “pathways” that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. The new SSPs offer five pathways that the world could take. The SSPs’ quantitative projections of 15 socio-economic drivers include population, gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization<ref name=":0" />. Compared to previous scenarios, these offer a broader view of a “business as usual” world without future climate policy, with global warming in 2100 ranging from a low of 3.1°C to a high of 5.1°C above pre-industrial levels.

Overview of the five different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways<ref>The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681]</ref>:
{| class="wikitable"
|SSP1
|Sustainability – Taking the Green Road (Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
|-
|SSP2
|Middle of the Road (Medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
|-
|SSP3
|Regional Rivalry – A Rocky Road (High challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
|-
|SSP4
|Inequality – A Road Divided (Low challenges to mitigation, high challenges to adaptation)
|-
|SSP5
|Fossil-fuel intesive Development – Taking the Highway (High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation)
|}

===Popularisation content of the subject===

*Article: [https://bonpote.com/forcage-radiatif-a-la-base-du-changement-climatique/ Radiative forcing: at the root of climate change - by Bonpote (Fench)]
*Video: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj2uT2kzY4Q#t=46m56s LIVE Climate, energy and nuclear with Le Réveilleur, 47th minute]

==Facilitation advice==

*To explain this card, we can use the metaphor of the "Greenhouse Effect" card. On the one hand, the cover around the Earth is thickening, this is the greenhouse effect, so we are accumulating energy. On the other hand, the room cools down, it's the aerosols, we lose energy. What happens? Should it be warmer or cooler under the blanket? Radiative forcing is simply a measure of the impact of both. We can see that the greenhouse effect is more important, so overall, the energy accumulates under the blanket.
*The name of the card may sound scary, but it simply shows radiation that has been altered. Renaming the card makes it simpler. It could be called "Man-made radiation on Earth" or "Forced radiation".

==Correction ==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_13_additional_greenhouse_effect|Additional Greenhouse Effect]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_10_aerosols|Aerosols]]
===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
==Other possible links ==

===Other causes===

*[[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] When the forest is cut down and replaced by a meadow, it is the opposite, a dark surface (the foliage) is replaced by a light surface (the meadow). All in all, the artificialization of the soil has a cooling effect on the climate.
*[[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting of Sea Ice]] When sea ice melts, a white surface is replaced by a navy blue surface, which has a lower albedo and therefore absorbs more energy.

==References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_15_forçage_radiatif]]

En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing

2021-12-15T14:59:41Z

X4resilience: Changed chapter on RCP to SSP to reflect V8.1 update

== Card #15: Radiative Forcing ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_15_front.png|400px]]

Radiative forcing represents the difference between the energy that reaches the Earth each second and the energy that is released. It is rated at 2.8 W/m² (Watt per square meter), 3.8 W/m² from the greenhouse effect and -1 W/m² from aerosols.

</center>

==Explanation==
Together with the coccolithophores, this card is the one that impresses the players the most. It is important to explain it well. One way to play it down is to say that Radiative Forcing is just a measurement.

The Earth receives energy from the Sun and radiates it back to space in the form of infrared rays. It should be in a state of in thermal equilibrium and the average temperature should be constant.

Anything that causes the Earth to move away from this thermal equilibrium, whether natural (sun, volcanoes) or anthropogenic (aerosols, GHGs), is called radiative forcing.

Caution: the definition has been simplified for educational purposes. A rigorous definition would be as follows: "Radiative forcing is the measure of the imbalance between the energy that arrives every second on Earth and the energy that would leave if the temperature had remained fixed since 1750". As the earth's temperature has risen in the meantime, the delta between instantaneous heat exchanges has decreased. Similarly, in 2050, in the [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing#RCP|RCP]]2.6 scenario, the forcing will be 2.6 W/m2, but the temperature will have stabilised, meaning that the delta between incoming and outgoing energy will be zero.

On the main graph, we can see the different components of the radiative forcing :

*in the upper part, the warming effects
* in the lower part, the cooling effects

The greenhouse effect (CO2 + Other WMGHG + Trop O3) represents a positive forcing of 3.1 W/m2 . It is therefore in the upper part of the graph.

Aerosols (Aer - Rad Int. + Aer - Cld Int.) have a cooling effect and are therefore in the lower part of the graph.

For more details on this graph, see the Radiative Forcing fact sheet.

The secondary graph represents the radiative forcing over two and a half centuries (history and projections). In the 5th IPCC report, the radiative forcing is 2.3 W/m2. The values of the forcing in 2100 gave their name to the IPCC scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 etc.). The colours of these scenarios can be found in the graphs of maps n°5, 11, 15, 21, 22 and 24.

For more details on this graph, see the fact sheet on PCR scenarios.

==To go further ==

=== Key points===

*Card 15 suggests that 2.3 W/m2 more energy is coming in than is going out, at any given moment. This is not the case! This is the definition of the "radiation balance" and its value is almost zero: as much energy enters as leaves (or 1 W/m2 maximum to take into account the time it takes to reach equilibrium due to warming). In the IPCC report, radiative forcing is the imbalance of the energy flux that would exist if the Earth's surface (or the oceans) had been prevented from warming compared to the values that existed in 1750. But the Earth's surface has warmed (by about 1°C) and the "radiative balance", not to be confused with radiative forcing, is almost zero. The legend in Figure 8.18 on page 699 of the IPCC report, on the back of Map 15, should be understood as the flow of energy that would not be returned to space if the Earth's surface had remained stuck at its 1750 temperature. Since the radiation balance is zero, this flow of energy, called "radiative forcing", is the one that has warmed the Earth.
*There is a simple and graphic way to explain the radiative forcing using the image of the greenhouse effect map. Note the arrows on the map from 1 to 4 (1 for reflection, 2 for insolation, 3 for infrared, and 4 for the greenhouse effect arrow). Let's also add a value 5 which is the amount of energy emitted by infrared radiation on the Earth's surface. First of all, it must be said that every warm body emits radiation. The hotter the body is, the more energy it radiates and returns. The amount of energy that reaches the earth is 2-1. The amount of energy leaving the Earth is 3. The amount of energy emitted by the earth in infrared radiation is 5. In 1750, what came in was worth what went out, so 2-1 = 3. We are in equilibrium. As the greenhouse effect increases, arrow 4 grows. This is the contribution of 3.1W/m2. On the other hand, aerosols increase the size of arrow 1. This is the -0.8 W/m2 because it is the amount of energy that does not reach the Earth.
*To understand the previous diagram, we can look at the values directly. Here is a table showing the radiation balance values:

{| class="wikitable"
!
!Source
!1750
!2020
|-
| rowspan="3" |Recep
|ESun
|341
|341
|-
| ERefl
|181
| 181.8
|-
|ESurf
|160
|159.2
|-
| rowspan="3" |Emis
| EEmisSurf
|490
|492
|-
|EGreenH
|330
|333.1
|-
|ESpace
|160
|158.9
|-
| rowspan="2" |Total
|EWarm
|490
|492.3
|-
|ECool
|490
|492
|}
The values presented in the table in W/m2 are as follows:

*ESun the energy emitted by the sun that reaches the Earth
*ERefl the energy reflected from Earth back into space
*ESurf the energy that reaches the earth's surface
*EEmisSurf the energy emitted by the Earth's surface
*EGreenH the energy that remains on Earth because of the greenhouse effect.
*ESpace the energy that goes back into space
*EWarm the energy that heats the Earth
*ECool that cools the Earth

So we have EWarm = ESurf + EGreenH, and ECool = EEmisSurf . The current radiative balance is EWarm-2020 - ECool2020 which is therefore 0.3 W/m2, and the radiative forcing is EWarm-2020 - ECool1750 which is therefore 2.3 W/m2.

This card should be removed for the simplified version.

===Detail item by item===

====Warming effects====

*Solar: the intensity of solar spots varies over time, with a period of 11 years. Hence the small bumps.
*BC [Black Carbon] on snow: Black carbon is soot (see map 10 Aerosols) that is deposited on snow that is white, and by albedo effect, it warms up.
*Contrails: Contrails are the streaks in aeroplanes due to aerosols and water vapour present and emitted. These trails are like artificial clouds (cirrus clouds, in this case, given their altitude and shape). At this altitude, the warming effect of the clouds (greenhouse effect) outweighs the cooling effect (albedo).
*Strat H2O [stratospheric water vapor]: Aircraft burn kerosene to propel themselves. This combustion, like all combustions, releases CO2 and water vapour. Water vapour is usually not counted in the carbon footprint of hydrocarbons because these water molecules are intended to remain in the atmosphere for only one to three weeks before being washed away by rain. As far as aeroplanes are concerned, it's a bit different because they fly at an altitude, close to the stratosphere, where, as the name suggests, the air is stratified. There are no vertical convective movements, almost no clouds and no rain. When water vapour is emitted by aeroplanes, it can stay there for several years and at that point we can start to take into account its greenhouse effect.
*Trop. O3 [Tropospheric Ozone]: Tropospheric ozone. Ozone is like cholesterol, it can be good and bad. The "good ozone" is stratospheric ozone, i.e. the ozone layer, which is very high in the atmosphere. It protects us from the sun's ultraviolet rays. The "bad ozone" is ground-level ozone, the ozone that is at ground level in "ozone pollution", especially in cities in hot weather. Ozone is a greenhouse gas, so as our activities produce it, its presence causes a positive radiative forcing. However, ozone is not included in carbon budgets. This is because we do not produce it directly. On the other hand, we do produce ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO).
*Other WMGHG [Well Mixed GreenHouse Gases]: Other WMGHG [Well Mixed GreenHouse Gases]: Other well mixed GHGs, or long-lived GHGs (synonymous because if they are long-lived, then they have time to mix well) are mainly methane, nitrous oxide and some other gases such as HFCs.
*CO2: We can see here that this is quantitatively the main element.

====Cooling effects====

*Aer - Rad Int. Aerosols - Radiation Interaction]: Aerosols-Radiation Interaction. This is the interaction of aerosols with the sun's rays. Clearly, it is the occulting effect. They prevent the sun's rays from reaching the ground. It is also said to be their direct effect<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=209 Definition of aerosol-radiation interaction, glossary of report 5, working group 1]</ref>.
* Aer - Cld Int. [Aerosols - Clouds Interaction] : Aerosols-Cloud interaction. Aerosols are a condensation nucleus of clouds which allows their manufacture.<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=209 Definition of aerosol-cloud interaction, glossary of report 5, working group 1]</ref> This is the indirect effect of aerosols.
*Land Use] : Land use. For example, when deforestation, a dark green surface is replaced by a light beige surface. The albedo effect cools the earth.
*Stat. O3 [stratospheric Ozone]: Stratospheric ozone. The ozone in the stratosphere, the "good ozone", which protects us from ultraviolet radiation. As the amount of ozone has decreased because of CFCs (the hole in the ozone layer), the greenhouse effect of this ozone has logically decreased. This is what you can see on this part of the graph.
*Volcanic: Large volcanic eruptions send ash into the stratosphere. The ash in the troposphere is washed away by rain in one to three weeks, but the ash that reaches the stratosphere stays much longer. This is because, as the name suggests, the air in the stratosphere is stratified, i.e. vertically stable. There are no vertical convective movements, but there are very powerful horizontal currents, the jetstreams, which mix these ashes over the entire surface of the earth. The result is a cooling of the earth for a few months to a few years. The phenomenon is similar to that of aerosols, it's just that the origin of aerosols is not the same.

===SSP ===

RCP is an acronym for [[wikipedia:Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways|'''S'''hared '''S'''ocioeconomic '''P'''athways]] as introduced in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 of the IPCC<ref name=":0">Definition of Shared Socio-economic Pathways, full report 6, working group 1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report_smaller.pdf p1-100]</ref>. These are the different scenarios proposed by the IPCC. SSPs are “pathways” that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. The new SSPs offer five pathways that the world could take. The SSPs’ quantitative projections of 15 socio-economic drivers include population, gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization<ref name=":0" />. Compared to previous scenarios, these offer a broader view of a “business as usual” world without future climate policy, with global warming in 2100 ranging from a low of 3.1°C to a high of 5.1°C above pre-industrial levels.

Overview of the five different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways<ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681]</ref>:
{| class="wikitable"
|SSP1
|Sustainability – Taking the Green Road (Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
|-
|SSP2
|Middle of the Road (Medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
|-
|SSP3
|Regional Rivalry – A Rocky Road (High challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
|-
|SSP4
|Inequality – A Road Divided (Low challenges to mitigation, high challenges to adaptation)
|-
|SSP5
|Fossil-fuel intesive Development – Taking the Highway (High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation)
|}

===Popularisation content of the subject===

*Article: [https://bonpote.com/forcage-radiatif-a-la-base-du-changement-climatique/ Radiative forcing: at the root of climate change - by Bonpote (Fench)]
*Video: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj2uT2kzY4Q#t=46m56s LIVE Climate, energy and nuclear with Le Réveilleur, 47th minute]

==Facilitation advice==

*To explain this card, we can use the metaphor of the "Greenhouse Effect" card. On the one hand, the cover around the Earth is thickening, this is the greenhouse effect, so we are accumulating energy. On the other hand, the room cools down, it's the aerosols, we lose energy. What happens? Should it be warmer or cooler under the blanket? Radiative forcing is simply a measure of the impact of both. We can see that the greenhouse effect is more important, so overall, the energy accumulates under the blanket.
*The name of the card may sound scary, but it simply shows radiation that has been altered. Renaming the card makes it simpler. It could be called "Man-made radiation on Earth" or "Forced radiation".

==Correction ==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_13_additional_greenhouse_effect|Additional Greenhouse Effect]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_10_aerosols|Aerosols]]
===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
==Other possible links ==

===Other causes===

*[[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] When the forest is cut down and replaced by a meadow, it is the opposite, a dark surface (the foliage) is replaced by a light surface (the meadow). All in all, the artificialization of the soil has a cooling effect on the climate.
*[[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting of Sea Ice]] When sea ice melts, a white surface is replaced by a navy blue surface, which has a lower albedo and therefore absorbs more energy.

==References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_15_forçage_radiatif]]

En-en adult card 14 energy budget

2021-12-15T13:49:42Z

X4resilience: corrected all the links to the right URL

== Card #14: Energy Budget ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_14_front.png|400px]]

This graph explains where the energy accumulated on Earth due to radiative forcing goes. It warms up the ocean, melts ice, dissipates into the ground and warms up the atmosphere.

</center>

== Explanation ==
On the graph, you can see several colours that represent, from top to bottom:

* In light blue, the upper layer of the ocean, between 0 and 700m
* In dark blue, the lower layer of the ocean, between 700m and 2000m
* In white, the different types of ice
* In orange, the soil
* In purple, the atmosphere.

The dotted lines represent uncertainty.

== Facilitation advice ==

=== Simplified version ===
This card can be removed for the simplified version, at the same time as the [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing|radiative forcing]] and [[En-en adult card 10 aerosols|aerosols]].

=== Full version ===
If you choose to keep this card, you need to remember the first principle of thermodynamics: energy is conserved. Players may draw links from Energy budget to [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]] and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Rising Air Temperatures]], then links from [[Rising Air Temperatures]] to [[En-en adult card 16 melting of glaciers|Melting glaciers]] and [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]] to [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting Sea Ice]] and [[En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]. By doing this, they consider that the air and water warm up, and then they melt the pack ice, glaciers and ice caps. But if a calorie has passed through the water and finally contributes to melting the pack ice from below, then it is no longer in the water.

=== Explanation advice ===
A tip to simplify the explanation of this card is to rename the following cards. An increase in temperature is an increase in energy, and melting is also an increase in energy. The five cards then become Increase in the energy level of water, air, sea ice... And the players will understand that these five cards have to be put at the same level. So if a calorie that is in the water contributes to melting the pack ice, once the pack ice has melted, this calorie is no longer in the water. The water has cooled down. In this case, should the calorie be counted in the "ocean" or "melting ice" part? Answer: in the melting part of the ice. You can't count this calorie twice.

== Correction==
===Causes===
*[[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing|Radiative forcing]]
* [[En-en adult card 42 weakening gulf stream|Weakening Gulf Stream]]

=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting glaciers]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures|Rising Water Temperatures]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_18_melting_of_sea_ice|Melting Sea Ice]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 41 permafrost|Permafrost]] If we take the idea of energy conservation all the way, we can link the energy budget to the thawing of permafrost.

== To go further ==

=== Figures ===
Oceans cover 71% of the earth's surface, with an average depth of 4 km. If air were reduced to the same density as water, its height would be 10m. The ocean has a very high density, which explains why it absorbs most of the energy related to GHGs emitted by man.

=== Videos ===
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFT5Mx0eK3U&feature=youtu.be Video presentation of the map by Rodolphe Meyer (French)]

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_14_budget_énergétique]]

En-en adult card 10 aerosols

2021-12-15T13:39:11Z

X4resilience: added reference to deaths from fossil fuel burning as Consequeces

== Card #10: Aerosols ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_10_front.png|400px]]

Nothing to do with aerosol spray cans. Aerosols are a type of local pollution that comes from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels. They are bad for human health and they negatively contribute to radiative forcing, meaning that they have a cooling effect on the climate.

</center>

== Definitions ==
Aerosols are solid or liquid particles suspended in the air, generally ranging in size from a few nanometres to 10 micrometres and which remain in the atmosphere for at least several hours. Aerosols can be of natural or human origin (through [[En-en adult card 4 transportation|transportation]] or [[En-en adult card 2 industry|industry]]). They can affect the climate in a variety of ways: [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing#Cooling effects|directly]], by scattering or absorbing radiation, and [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing#Cooling effects|indirectly]] by acting as condensation nuclei of clouds or glaciogenic cores, by modifying the optical properties and lifetime of clouds.

== Correction==

===Causes===

*[[En-en_adult_card_2_industry|Industry]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_4_transportation|Transportation]]
*[[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil fuels]]

===Consequences===

*[[En-en_adult_card_15_radiative_forcing|Radiative forcing]] Aerosols cool down the climate.
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human health]] Although aerosols are not alone in the "fine particle" category, every year 391,000 people in EU countries die from air pollution<ref>[https://www.eea.europa.eu/fr/highlights/la-pollution-atmospherique-reste-trop Air pollution remains too high throughout Europe (French)]</ref>, and it causes 1.1 million premature deaths in India and China<ref>[https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/nature-environnement/l-inde-rattrape-la-chine-en-nombre-de-morts-de-la-pollution_110560 India catches up with China in the number of deaths from pollution (French)]</ref>. Air pollution such as soot caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil was responsible for 8.7m deaths globally in 2018. <ref>Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths [https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change/news/fossil-fuel-air-pollution-responsible-for-1-in-5-deaths-worldwide/ worldwide]</ref><ref>'Invisible killer': fossil fuels caused 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, research finds [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/fossil-fuels-pollution-deaths-research]</ref>

==Other possible links==

=== Other causes===
[[En-en adult card 3 building|Building usage]] Buildings emit few aerosols directly. The only significant emissions are chimney fires. In Chamonix, 85% of the fine particles present in the atmosphere come from wood heating<ref>[https://www.lemonde.fr/pollution/article/2016/12/08/dans-la-vallee-de-chamonix-le-chauffage-au-bois-est-le-principal-coupable-de-la-pollution_5045636_1652666.html In the Chamonix valley, wood heating is the main culprit of pollution (French).]</ref>.

==Facilitation advice==
This card can be removed most of the time, unless the players are likely to understand it, have the time and the facilitator has a good grasp of the subject.

[[En-en adult card 13 additional greenhouse effect|Card 13]] can be used to explain this: Aerosols mainly play on the orange arrows (they increase the size of the "Reflection" arrow, while the additional greenhouse effect plays on the red arrows (it increases the size of the "Greenhouse Effect" arrow which returns to the earth).

==To go further==

===Origins of anthropogenic aerosols===
Aerosols are a form of local pollution caused by the incomplete combustion of hydrocarbons. When we burn fossil fuels, a perfect and complete combustion produces only CO2 and water vapour. However, the hydrocarbons we burn are not pure and the combustion is not complete. Therefore, polluting gases such as NOx or carbon monoxide and aerosols such as black carbon (soot) or hydrogen sulphide are also emitted.

===Natural Aerosols===
If clouds already existed before the industrial era, it is because aerosols exist in their natural state. They are for example microscopic grains of sand, salt crystals, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as microorganisms blown by the wind from the leaves of trees. The micro-droplets of water that make up clouds can only form on a condensation core such as an aerosol.

===Uncertainty related to the calculation of the influence of aerosols===
Although aerosols are thought to cool the climate on average, their total contribution is the result of warming and cooling effects with great uncertainty. The sum of the two is therefore highly subject to uncertainty. The Futura Science article [https://www.futura-sciences.com/planete/dossiers/climatologie-tant-incertitudes-previsions-climatiques-638/ Why so many uncertainties in climate predictions?] (in French) provides a good understanding of the origin of these uncertainties.

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_10_aérosols]]

En-en scientific part

2021-07-07T14:01:33Z

X4resilience: use of lower case 'collage' to refer to the english noun

This part takes between an hour and an hour and a half, and sees the players place the 42 game cards.
==Gameplay==
During this phase, the players need to connect the cards from causes to consequences. The cards are uncovered in batches, once the facilitator has ensured that the cards of the previous batch are correctly placed. There are five batches of cards:
*The [[En-en adult batch 1|first batch]] starts off the game with a very simple and almost linear sequence showing the origin of global heating, in order to demonstrate how the game works and, also, to make clear that mistakes are beneficial to the learning process, if the players fall in the melting sea ice trap.
*The [[En-en adult batch 2|second batch]] illustrates the different types of human activity and briefly covers carbon sink
*The [[En-en adult batch 3|third batch]] contains the physics part of the collage. This batch can be the most difficult for new facilitators and is much easier in the [[En-en simplified version|simplified version]].
*The [[En-en adult batch 4|fourth batch]] highlights observable climate-related natural disasters and consequences on the oceans.
*The [[En-en adult batch 5|last batch]] shows other climate-related natural disasters, as well as the four human impact cards.
==Facilitation advice==
===Facilitating several tables at once===
When the workshop is spread over several tables, the facilitator needs to move from one table to the next. Staggering the kick-off for each table is a way to ensure that when the facilitator is explaining to one table, the others are busy thinking and not waiting.
===Helping the players find the answers===
The players often have questions, but even more often the answers are on the cards. In this cas, invite the group to reread certain cards, rather than give them the answer. This will help them memorise the answer. If the answer is not on the cards, you can explain, but be careful not to fall into a long discussion and remind them that there will be a debate later on and that they can bring up their questions then.
===Placing the cards===
The 42 cards take up a lot of space on the table. One way to get things right is to ensure that the five cards [[En-en adult card 16 melting of glaciers|Melting of glaciers]], [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]], [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Temperature Rise]], [[En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets|Melting of Ice Sheets]] and [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting of sea ice]] are aligned in the middle.
===If a player is getting bored ===
If a player is showing strong signs of boredom during the fourth or the fifth batch, suggest that they start the creative part. This will reengage them, and also motivate the rest of the team to take part in the [[En-en creative part|creative part]].
===If a player is very shy===
If a player is showing interest but is struggling to be heard within the group, it can be a good idea to ask them the explain between batches. This will give them the opportunity to speak and should reengage them.
==Common mistakes==
===An over-present facilitator===
Sometimes the facilitator is too present. The facilitator should leave the players to think about the on-going batch and only come back when requested. This also makes it easier for the players to speak freely.

[[fr:Partie_intellectuelle]]

En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle

2021-07-07T14:00:35Z

X4resilience: use of lower case 'collage' to refer to the english noun

{{Card
|number=20
|version=adult
|title=Disruption Water Cycle
}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=106 Page 91 of the Technical Summary of the 5th IPCC Report (French)]</ref>

== Explanation ==
This card is important. It alone shows why we used to talk about global warming and now about climate change.

Temperature increase is in itself a problem, but you can see on the collage at the end that disruption of the water cycle has much more effect.

== Facilitation advice ==
To illustrate that evaporation takes place at the surface of the water, place cards [[En-en_adult_card 17_increase_in water_temperature|17]] and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|21]] on the table, place the lower edge of card 21 against the upper edge of card 17, then place card 20 at the boundary of the two, perpendicularly, to mark the surface of the water (between water and air).

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Temperature Rise]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_26_river_flooding|River Flooding]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] Vegetation retains water. When it is cut down, the risk of flooding increases.

=== Other consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets|Melting of ice sheets]] It's a bit technical, but the blue part of the map of Antarctica on card 19 represents a gain in mass due to an increase of precipitations. The red part represents a loss in mass. In total, Antarctica is losing mass.
* [[En-en adult card 28 vectors of disease|Vectors of disease]] The Vectors of disease card is generally linked to the [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]] card because disease vectors are a sub-part of biodiversity, but it can also be linked to the same causes as the biodiversity card, i.e. Disruption of the Water Cycle and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Temperature Rise]].

== Wrong links==
=== Wrong causes===

* [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting of Sea Ice]] The melting of the Arctic ice pack, but also the melting of Greenland's glaciers may lead, in the distant future, to a disruption of the thermohaline circulation (which gives rise to the Gulf Stream). But the "Water Cycle" card does not refer at all to the thermohaline circulation.

=== Wrong consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 22 sea level rise|Sea level rise]] No, more rain is not going to cause the oceans to overflow! This is a rare mistake to be made, but if it happens to you, ask the players where rainclouds come from...

== To go further ==

=== El Niño===
[https://www.oce.global/en/resources/videos/clim-el-nino Explanatory video from OCE on El Niño]

===Popularisation===
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqMmRdsK5WM The Mystery of the Expansion of the Tropics (French)]

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_20_perturbation_cycle_eau]]

En-en adult card 40 armed conflicts

2021-07-07T13:59:59Z

X4resilience: use of lower case 'collage' to refer to the english noun

{{Card
|number=40
|version=adult
|title=Armed Conflicts
}}

==Explanation==
This card is intended to be placed last, as the text suggests.

It can already be said that climate change has been one of the causes of some conflicts, such as in Rwanda or Syria.

In a world that is suffering from all the consequences described in the game, it is hard to imagine that armed conflicts can be avoided.

In 2007, when the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Prize, it was the Nobel Peace Prize. And there are very good reasons for that.

==Other possible links==
==Correction ==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
==Other possible links==
===Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil fuels]] Armed conflicts linked to fossil energies are more a geopolitical consequence than a direct climatic one. But it may still be interesting to mention this relationship.

===Other consequences===

* [[En-en adult card 1 human activities|Human activities]] It's the final loop of the Club of Rome. All this will eventually regulate itself, but not necessarily peacefully. The players often make this link and sometimes propose to roll up the collage to connect the beginning and ending edges. Moreover, it is noteworthy that humankind appears in the first and last cards, but not in the middle of the collage.
* [[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil Fuels]] Conflicts are often linked to fossil fuels, but the link is more the other way round.

==Examples of conflicts related to climate change==

''"Is there evidence that it will end in armed conflict?"'' Although this card comes as a logical follow-up to all the previous ones, some players may say that there is no evidence that climate change will lead to armed conflict. However, a study condensing 55 others showed that for every degree of temperature increase, there will be an increase of 2.4% in interpersonal conflicts (domestic violence, aggression, murders...) and 11.3% in intercultural conflicts (riots, ethnic violence, invasions, civil wars or other forms of political instability)<ref>[https://www.nber.org/papers/w20598.pdf Burke, Miguel, Hsiang ''Climate and conflict'']</ref>.

===Situation in Sudan===
Numerous interactions between factors (freshwater resources, disruption of the water cycle, armed conflict): in 2007, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon described the conflict in Darfur (Sudan region) as the "first armed conflict linked to climate change". Water scarcity and changes in the rainfall cycle have contributed to fuelling this conflict. ("the world's first climate change conflict.") The conflict in Sudan has been marked by a particularly high number of civilian casualties, particularly through the poisoning of wells<ref>[https://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf UNEP ''Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment'']</ref>.

===Syria===
It is also multidimensional here (drought, armed conflict, agricultural yield, fresh water resources, climate refugees): the civil war in Syria has been aggravated by the multiple droughts of the last 5 years. Climate models suggest that the severity of the drought is at least partially caused by climate change<ref>[https://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 National Academy of Sciences of the USA ''Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought'']</ref>.

The decisions of previous governments, corruption, mismanagement of natural resources and drought have destroyed the living conditions of Syrians. Particularly through the issue of access to water, because for several consecutive years between 2006 and 2011, disastrous harvests have affected between 2 and 3 million farmers, endangering the food security of one million people through reduced access to wheat, barley and meat. In addition, Syria itself had already hosted refugees from Iraq in the same period. These events have led to almost 1.5 million Syrians having to leave their country.

=== Mali===
The situation in Mali is influenced by the links between armed conflict and drought<ref>[https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076815603234 Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine (2015) ''Climate change, conflict and health, Devin C Bowles, Colin D Butler, Neil Moris'']''etti''</ref>.

Mali has been experiencing droughts since the 1960s. At the same time, nomadic Tuaregs have turned into mercenaries to form an alliance with Libyan President Gaddafi.

The particularly severe drought of 2009 was an aggravating factor in the country's high food and economic instability. Three years later, a rebellion led by the Tuaregs broke out. The latter organised a coup d'état against the Malian government, allowing the Jihadists to take power and at the same time leading to the intervention of the French army, notably because of the various links between the Jihadists of the Islamic state and Boko Haram.

===Analysis of the link between climate change and armed conflict===
Compiling historical data on sub-Saharan conflicts and variations in rainfall, there has been a substantial increase in armed conflicts during warmer years. For example, a 1% increase in temperature leads to a 4.5% increase in the number of civil wars in the same year<ref>[https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/does-climate-change-cause-conflict United Nations University ''Does Climate Change Cause Conflict?'']</ref>. By 2030, according to the study of average data from the 18 climate models used, this will result in a 54% increase in armed conflicts in the region. A compilation of several studies shows that over the last 100 years global warming has been an aggravating factor in armed conflicts in a range between 3% and 20% of cases<ref>[https://news.stanford.edu/2019/06/12/climate-change-cause-armed-conflict/ Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment ''Stanford-led study investigates how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict'']</ref>.

In a multi-factorial analysis of the causes of armed conflicts to date, under a +2°C scenario, the study estimates that the number of armed conflicts would be twice as high; under a +4°C scenario, it would be 5 times higher<ref>[https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31189956/ Nature ''Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict'']</ref>.

The increase in the frequency of famines is strongly linked to the increase in the frequency of wars<ref>[https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30018-2/fulltext THE LANCET VOLUME 393, ISSUE 10175, P981-982, MARCH 09, 2019 ''Back to the root causes of war: food shortages'']</ref>.

Between 1950 and 2001 it is estimated that civil wars were twice as likely to occur in the years corresponding to El Nino compared to the cooler years of La Nina. El Nino could have contributed to 21% of the conflicts during this period<ref>[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4622275/#sec7-0141076815603234title Journal of the Royal Society of Medecine ''Climate change, conflict and health'']</ref>.

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_40_conflits_armés]]

En-en adult card 41 permafrost

2021-07-07T13:58:22Z

X4resilience: use of lower case 'collage' to refer to the english noun

{{Card
|number=41
|version=adult
|title=Permafrost
}}

==Explanation==
Permafrost is soil that is permanently frozen for at least two consecutive years<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=212 Glossary, Report 5, Working Group 1 (French)]</ref>.

The two last cards to be added to the collage after card 40 are potentially violent [[wikipedia:Climate_change_feedback|feedback]] loops or "climate bombs" which, if triggered, would cause us to lose control over the climate for good.

Thermokarst are veritable bioreactors at the heart of the process of releasing frozen carbon: when the permafrost thaws, pieces of soil detach and fall into the water, bringing nutrients and carbon to the bacteria and plankton present in the sea, which degrade them into CO2 (in the water layers near the surface) and methane (CH4 -- in the oxygen-deprived bottom)<ref>[https://lejournal.cnrs.fr/articles/pergelisol-le-piege-climatique CNRS The newspaper Permafrost, the climate trap (French)]</ref>.

==Correction ==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_21_temperaturet_rise|Temperature Rise]]
===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_9_other_ghgs|Other GHGs]]
==Other possible links==
===Other causes===
*[[En-en adult card 14 energy budget|Energy budget]] If we take the idea of energy conservation all the way, we can link the thawing of permafrost and [[En-en adult card 42 methane hydrates|methane hydrates]] back to the energy budget.

===Other consequences===
* [[En-en adult card 13 additional greenhouse effect|Additional greenhouse effect]] The permafrost card can be linked either to Other GHGs or to Additional Greenhouse Effect. The Other GHGs card is about GHGs emitted by human activities, while the methane in permafrost is not of human origin.
*[[En-en adult card 28 vectors of disease|Vectors of disease]] Permafrost contains billions of buried bacteria and viruses. If it melts, diseases might contaminate humans and animals. In 2016, there was an [https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36951542 outbreak of anthrax] caused by a melted reindeer carcass.

==To go further==
For online murals, you can show this [https://youtu.be/YegdEOSQotE?t=82 video] from the University of Alaska Fairbanks showing the flammable methane stored in the permafrost.

Climate Action Network France: [https://reseauactionclimat.org/carbone-degel-pergelisol-rechauffement-climatique/ Thawing permafrost carbon will increase global warming], 2018 (French)

RT France documentary: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUIYnuoD8To The mystery of permafrost] (French)

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_41_permafrost]]

En-en adult introduction

2021-07-07T13:57:59Z

X4resilience: use of lower case 'collage' to refer to the english noun

This phase is about presenting how the three-hour workshop will proceed and creating comfortable and trustful environment for the players. There are no definite rules about the introduction, but there are some important points to cover nonetheless.

==Icebreaker==
It is recommended to start with an icebreaker, before even presenting the collage. This gives the players the opportunity to get to know each other, while ensuring that everyone gets to speak, not only the facilitators and the most assertive players. Here are a few examples of icebreakers:
*asking the players to introduce themselves briefly
*organising an [https://www.ladauphinelle.fr/s-emerveiller/animation-nature/shifoumi-de-l-%C3%A9volution/ <nowiki>evolutionary rock-paper-scissors game [FR]</nowiki>]
*"if you were an animal, what would you be?"
*"tell us one beautiful thing you have seen/experienced today"

==Presentation of the workshop==
To start with, telling the players that they need to connect the cards from causes to consequences is enough. Each card presents a concept that can cause or be caused by another card. If necessary, use two cards as an example.

It is recommended to ask the players not to read the text in the back of the card (or in the caption in Mural) for the first batch, in order for them to fall for the [[En-en melting sea ice rising sea level|melting sea ice trap]] and, also, to work together as a team.

Make it clear that collaboration is essential. You can then present the timescale by introducing the different phases of the workshop and the batches of cards.

==The facilitator's posture==
The facilitator has several responsibilities:
*'''Facilitating''' the workshop
*'''Leaving''' the players think by themselves
*'''Encouraging''' the players to cooperate and correct connections that could be wrong
*But not '''being an expert'''

==The origins of the game==
===Scientific basis ===
The facilitator should make clear that the game is based on the IPCC reports, which are overwhelmingly accepted by the scientific community. Therefore the content of the game is not open to criticism from a scientific point of view.

===The creator===
The facilitator should also state that the game was created by Cédric Ringenbach in order to explain climate change to his engineering degree students. 

Once the introduction is over, move on to the [[En-en scientific part|scientific part]].

[[fr:Introduction]]

En-en debrief

2021-07-07T13:57:23Z

X4resilience: use of lower case 'collage' to refer to the english noun

This is the last phase of the collage. It follows the [[En-en pitch|pitch]] and should take at least 45 minutes. It focusses on emotions and solutions.

==Gameplay==
This phase plays out in two parts:
*A first part for players to explore their emotions
*A second part about solutions.

===The emotions part===
Because climate change is so deeply tragic, it is important to put words on whatever feelings it generates and not keep them inside. Without obliging any player to speak about their feelings, here are some ways to support the discussion:
*Asking the players to form pairs and practise active listening pairs
*Asking the players, one after the other, to say one word, then to explain why they have chosen it
**Some emotions: anger, fear, disgust, joy, sadness, surprise, anticipation, anxiety, love, depression, trust, pride, shame, envy...
*Asking the players to choose a character on Pip Wilson's blob tree test<ref>https://themindsjournal.com/choose-a-blob-figure/</ref> or an emotion on the wheel of emotions<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emotion_classification#/media/File:Plutchik-wheel.svg</ref>.

===The solutions part===
This part is to emphasise the solutions that the players can propose, and to discuss how change can be brought. Generally it goes as follows:
*The players bring up ideas of individual solutions
*These are challenged by the facilitator or by a player
*The players discuss solutions that have more impact than individual solutions.

==Facilitation advice==
===The role of the facilitator===
====Creating a safe space====
The facilitator must make sure that all the players feel at ease, whether they wish to talk to about their emotions or not. This can be done explicitly by sharing rules (showing kindness, letting everyone speak...) or using techniques of non-violent communication.
====Centring the debate====
When we talk about climate change, we often veer off into other subjects like the hole in the ozone layer, plastic pollutions or pesticides. Although these issues are important, they are not directly linked to climate change, and it can be necessary to bring the players back to our subject by asking them to concentrate on solutions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
====Numerical values====
Players often state incorrect numbers. If the order of magnitude is right and it doesn't skew the debate, a correction can be brought in the post-collage email. But if the numbers are so far off that they have a negative impact on the discussion, it is better to correct them on the spot.
====Individual actions====
Our society makes private people believe that individual action is necessary and sufficient to resolve these environmental crises. This is not the case, and the facilitator should make that clear. For example, it can be said that "heroic" individual behaviour only achieves 50% of the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions required, and 25% in the case of “realistic” behaviour<ref>[http://www.carbone4.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Publication-Carbone-4-Faire-sa-part-pouvoir-responsabilite-climat.pdf Carbone 4, ''Faire sa part'']</ref>. Questions that may call into question individual action may be:

* What do we do if other people refuse to change their behaviour by themselves?
* Only 51% of French people think that we must "significantly modify our lifestyles to prevent climate change".<ref>[https://www.ademe.fr/representations-sociales-changement-climatique-20-eme-vague ADEME, ''Représentations sociales du changement climatique : 20 ème vague'', question 11b]</ref>

===How can we feel OK?===
A recurring question at the end of the collage is "How can we not sink into eco-anxiety knowing what we know now?". There are several ways to answer it. The players have just learned that our civilisation is self-destroying and taking all living things with it, and it is therefore normal to feel overwhelmed. It may be a good idea to introduce the players to Kübler-Ross's grief curve<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_stages_of_grief#/media/File:K%C3%BCbler_Ross's_stages_of_grief.png</ref> and to explain that it is quite normal to feel sadness, anger, fear, and that this is a phase.

Another way to feel better is to turn around our understanding of what prompts us to act. Instead of saying to yourself "I am taking action to lessen my impact on the world", you can say to yourself "I am taking action to prepare for a more frugal and resilient world". It must also be said that the best way to feel better is to get involved in associations, to act individually, or to implement any other solutions proposed during the debate.

===Exemple de domaine de solution===
In the rare case that the players cannot think of any solutions, the facilitator can ask them to take another look at the four types of human activity highlighted by the collage and to suggest some individual suggestions linked to each one:
*[[En-en adult card 2 industry|Industry]]: buying less consumer products, digital sobriety, repairing things instead of buying new, the five Rs (Refuse, Reduce, Reuse, Repurpose, Recycle)
*[[En-en adult card 3 building|Building usage]]: heating less, living in a smaller house/flat, insulating your home, changing your heating system
*[[En-en adult card 4 transportation|Transportation]]: stopping flying, avoiding driving, using the train for long trips, cycling for short trips
*[[En-en adult card 8 agriculture|Agriculture]]: avoiding animal products, preferring locally produced foods (NB the type of product has a much greater influence than its provenance<ref>[https://ourworldindata.org/food-choice-vs-eating-local Our World in Data, ''Food : Greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain'']</ref>).
*
*

===Post-workshop email===
Once the workshop is over, it is important to send an email to the players. The purpose of this email is to:
*Remind them what was said during the debate
*Clarify some points if necessary
*Provide other resources for the players to learn more
*Invite the players to become facilitators
*Provide the players with the means to contact the facilitator in the future.

==Sources==
<references />

[[fr:Débrief]]

En-en adult card 42 methane hydrates

2021-07-07T13:56:24Z

X4resilience: lower case collage to refer to the english noun

{{Card
|number=42
|version=adult
|title=Methane Hydrates
}}

== Explanation ==
The two last cards to be added to the collage after card 40 are potentially violent feedback loops or "climate bombs" which, if triggered, would cause us to lose control over the climate for good.

Thermokarst are veritable bioreactors at the heart of the process of releasing frozen carbon: when the permafrost thaws, pieces of soil detach and fall into the water, bringing nutrients and carbon to the bacteria and plankton present in the sea, which degrade them into CO2 (in the water layers near the surface) and methane (CH4 -- in the oxygen-deprived bottom).

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_9_other_ghgs|Other GHGs]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 14 energy budget|Energy budget]] If we take the idea of energy conservation all the way, we can link the thawing of [[En-en adult card 41 permafrost|permafrost]] and methane hydrates back to the energy budget.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_42_hydrates_de_méthane]]

En-en pitch

2021-07-07T13:55:17Z

X4resilience: lower case 'collage' to refer to the english noun

This phase takes about ten minutes. The aim is to help the players memorise what they have learned, process it and make conclusions. It follows the [[En-en creative part|creative part]] and precedes the [[En-en debrief|debrief]].

==Gameplay==
This phase has two parts:
*A summary of the collage
*A focus on a link or a card that has particularly touched the players.

==Facilitation advice==
===Who summarises the collage?===
To continue in the spirit of group intelligence and to make sure they have understood the collage, a player can summarise it. However, it is difficult for someone who has just done the collage to summarise and they tend to read out the connections without necessarily highlighting the overall dynamics and getting to the point. Most of time, it is more advisable for the facilitator to summarise the collage.

===Examples of pitches===
====Complete pitch====

* Human activities that use fossil fuels - industry, building usage, transport - emit {{CO2}}.

*Part of the CO2 will be absorbed by carbon sinks, in particular the oceans. This acidifies the ocean waters, making it more difficult for pteropods and coccolithophores, at the base of marine food chains, to build calcified shells, thus jeopardising marine biodiversity.
* The CO2 that is not absorbed by the oceans or by photosynthesis (because trees absorb all the more CO2 if there is more of it in the air) stays in the atmosphere. Half of the CO2 stays in the atmosphere, taking its concentration from 280 ppm (parts per million) before the industrial revolution to 410 ppm today. This CO2 plus the other greenhouse gases coming from agriculture cause an increase in global warming.
*This causes radiative forcing and an imbalance of the planet's energy budget. The oceans absorb 93% of the surplus energy received by the Earth, pushing up the water temperature. 3% of the energy goes to melting ice, whether sea ice, glaciers or ice sheets. The rising water temperature and the melting of the glaciers and ice sheets make the sea level rise. Only 1% of the energy goes into the atmosphere and has already caused a 1°C atmospheric temperature rise. Projections forecast in increase between 2°C and 5°C towards the end of the century.
*Rising air and ocean temperatures increase evaporation, disrupting the water cycle. This causes stronger cyclones, flooding, droughts and diminishes on freshwater resources, impacting agricultural yields. Add heatwaves, forest fires and impacts of terrestrial biodiversity, in particular on potential vectors of disease, and we have a recipe for disastrous effects on human health and wellbeing. It will become necessary for many to migrate away for their safety, causing armed conflicts and geopolitical turmoil.
====Shorter pitch====

Human activities emit CO2 and other greenhouse gases. These disrupt the CO2 cycle, acidifying the oceans and endangering marine biodiversity. They also skew the energy balance of the Earth, cause ice to melt and temperatures to rise. This disrupts the water cycle and contributes to rising sea levels. All this causes extreme weather events such as forest fires and cyclones that have direct consequences on human populations, causing them to migrate or to die of hunger or diseases.

[[fr:Pitch]]

En-en creative part

2021-07-07T13:54:08Z

X4resilience: use lower case 'collage' as it is no longer referring to 'climate collage' but to the English noun .

This phase takes about 30 minutes and gives the players the opportunity to customise their collage and make it look great. It follows the [[En-en scientific part|scientific part]] and is before the [[En-en pitch|pitch]].

==Gameplay==
This phase is pretty free. The players use pens, pencils, chalk, etc., to decorate the collage and they choose how they want to do that. For online versions, Mural and similar platforms have functions to import pictures, to place shapes and use different colours. The basic instructions are:
*To find a '''title''' for their collage
*To '''reposition''' the cards to make the collage easier to read
*To '''trace over the lines''' with permanent pens.

==Why a creative phase?==
Quite often, the players, and sometimes even the facilitators, do not immediately understand the purpose of this phase and find it difficult to find that this phase is of no interest and have difficulty launching it. However, the creative phase allows the group:

* Over a few minutes, to walk through the collage again and emphasize certain aspects by drawing thicker lines or different coloured arrows

* To take a step back: during an hour and a half, the players were immersed in science. The creative phase calls upon a different part of the brain and enables them the see their collage through a different lens.
* To create something unique and beautiful that they can take away with them (either the collage itself or a photo of it).
* To memorise certain aspects: if a participant spends time adding a drawing relating to a card (e.g. a chimney for industry, a bee for transport), they will much better memorize the facts around this card.

==Facilitation advice==
===Facilitating several tables at once===
If you are facilitating several tables at once, you can choose to start a kind of competition for the best collage between the players. We sometimes hear the objection that bringing competition into the game is not in the spirit of the collage that encourages cooperation and solidarity to save the planet. This is up to you to decide.

===Getting the players started ===
Sometimes the players find it difficult to engage with the creative phase, although it provides the opportunity to take a step back. They can be shocked by the final cards of the collage and can need a moment to process what they have seen. Once they have had a few minutes, do not hesitate to give them a pen and ask them to fill in some arrows. This should get them started.

===Choosing a title===
The choice of a title is a crucial moment of the workshop. It occurs during the creative phase, but you need to warn the players so that they remember to leave space at the top to write it. The choice of title is often the moment when the players will put words for the first time on how they feel about what they have learned. The first title ideas are often very dark (e.g. "The End of the World", "Destruction of Man by Man", etc.). Do not dissuade them from doing so, it is important that everyone expresses their feelings at this precise moment. The team will surely decide for themselves, collectively, to choose a more positive title.

[[fr:Partie_creative]]

Portal:Home/Footer

2021-07-06T18:19:56Z

X4resilience: changed 'Climate Collage' into 'Climate Fresk'

<div class="portail-bloc bloc-ligne">

The Climate wiki is an emanation of the Climate Fresk.
 
La Fresque du Climat is an association under the French 1901 law. The game is distributed under license CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 FR.
 
The association is based in Paris 17th, 64 rue de Sauffroy.

</div>

En-en adult card 12 carbon sinks

2021-07-06T18:18:14Z

X4resilience: replaced 'Climate Collage" by "Climate Fresk" throughout this page

{{Card
|number=12
|version=adult
|title=Carbon Sinks
}}

== Explanation ==
The original IPCC graph represents both CO2 emissions and carbon sinks. The Climate Fresk has chosen to split it in two to show where CO2 comes from and where it goes. This is why the two cards are symmetrical: every year, the CO2 emitted by humankind has to go somewhere. Any CO2 that is not absorbed by the other carbon sinks remains in the atmosphere.

The text at the back of the card gives approximate absorption rates. The more detailed percentages are:

* 27.9% for the ocean
* 28.8% for photosynthesis<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5+SummaryVolume+FINAL+FRENCH.pdf Page 51 of IPCC's fifth technical summary report (French)]</ref>.

== Facilitation tips ==
This card is to be mirrored with the [[En-en adult card 7 co2 emissions|CO2 emissions]] card. To help the players figure this out, we can show them the card and ask "Can you see anything weird about this card?". Very often they notice that the legend is written upside-down. We can then tell them that it is a puzzle to be solved and that the answer is on the table. If the players do not figure it out, they can be given some clues:

* What is the type of representation? A graph
* What type of graph? A "filled" curve
* What is the legend? The same as for CO2 emissions.
==Correction==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_7_co2_emissions|CO2 Emissions]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_11_concentration_of_co2|Concentration of CO2]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_24_ocean_acidification|Ocean Acidification]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
*[[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] Players often think that deforestation reduces carbon sinks. In reality, the impact is minimal because deforested areas represent a very small part of the total forest area. On the other hand, the CO2 emitted is very important.
*[[En-en adult card 8 agriculture|Agriculture]] It doesn't matter if this link is not made, but it is true that agriculture can improve storage capacity through photosynthesis. This is the 0.4% principle (if we increased the soil's capacity to sequester carbon by even 0.4%, we would have a significant impact on CO2).

=== Other consequences ===
*[[En-en adult card 32 decline agricultural yields|Decline in agricultural yields]] Studies have shown that yields increase with increased CO2, but that the nutrient content of vegetables is reduced as a result, because trace elements are not more abundant when yields increase.

== Wrong links==
===Wrong consequences===
*[[En-en adult card 14 energy budget|Energy budget]] The idea here is not to say there is no link between these two cards, but to make sure they are not mixed up. The carbon sinks card tells us where the carbon goes. The energy budget card tells us where the excess energy goes. Both distribute something, but not the same thing. To make it even more confusing, the atmosphere and the ocean are present in both.

==To go further==

===Variation in photosynthesis===
On this card, we can see that in some years photosynthesis drops to 0, and varies greatly from one year to another. The explanation comes from the fact that the residual carbon sink is calculated from the remaining value of the other variables<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=66 Page 66 of IPCC's Fifth report summary - Working group #1 (French)]</ref>. This is why negative values are sometimes found. In this graph, emissions and their distribution only include flows that have varied since 1750, without the natural CO2 flows, such as CO2 degassing from lakes, rivers and oceans. However, the IPCC does not clearly explain why such a variation can be read on the graph.

It can be added that the atmospheric concentration has increased sharply in years with an El Niño phenomenon because it makes it difficult for vegetation to absorb carbon<ref>[https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/19/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2019.pdf#page=48 The Global Carbon Project, 2019]</ref>.

===Carbon sinks capacity===
[https://jancovici.com/changement-climatique/gaz-a-effet-de-serre-et-cycle-du-carbone/les-puits-de-carbone-ne-vont-ils-pas-absorber-le-surplus-de-co2/ Jean-Marc Jancovici’s web site - Won't "carbon sinks" absorb excess CO2? (French)]

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_12_puits_de_carbone]]

Facilitation

2021-07-06T18:17:09Z

X4resilience: replaced 'Climate Collage" by "Climate Fresk" throughout this page

'''Warning''': This page has been automatically translated from french and needs to be reviewed

Each facilitator will run the workshop in their own way of course, but here is the framework for Climate Fresk facilitation.

=Introduction=

==Ice-breaker==

It can be useful to start with an introduction that relaxes the atmosphere: do a first name round, introduce yourself briefly, ask players to name their favourite animal, etc.

==Briefing and start-up==

Briefing the teams is quick as you only need to explain that you need to put the cards back in the order of cause and effect. Also emphasis the importance of team collaboration: everyone must participate (it is up to you to make sure this is the case, too). Finally, give them some timing elements. To start with, it is advisable to shuffle the cards of batch 1 on the table (otherwise they are almost in order) and not to give instructions to read the back of the cards. This way, teams will more easily fall into the trap of the ice pack not raising the water level. Once all the cards in set 1 are placed (usually in a row), and not before, tell them to read the back. Getting it wrong and correcting yourself is very effective for learning, that's why there is a trap at the beginning.
=Intellectual part=
The first phase consists of placing all 42 cards and drawing the arrows between the cards. Distribute the lots as the cards of the previous lot are correctly positioned. From batch 3 or 4 onward, start drawing the arrows. In order to have a reference point, the "line" composed of cards 21 (temperature), 17 (water temperature), 16 (glaciers) 18 (ice pack) and 19 (ice caps) should be about half the length of the table. If this is not the case, the team will have difficulty putting all the other cards downstream. It is therefore time, around batch 3 or 4, to suggest that they compact the cards on the front of the mural.

'''It is advisable to intervene as little as possible during this phase.''' All the information is on the back of the cards, so they have something to work with. All the information is on the back of the cards, so they have plenty to work with. You may want to suggest that participants read a card again when you guess that they obviously haven't and read it out loud so that everyone in the group can hear the explanation. Important: spend as little time as possible on each table. Quickly identify where things go wrong, offer to read one to three cards again and move on to the next table.

A tip if they get bogged down: "read the back of the cards and see if you can find the headings on another card. If you do, there is a link. "

If some participants get bored with the game, suggest that they start the next game.

=Creative part=

==Presentation==

At one third of the time limit (you have room to slip to half time), it is time for the artistic phase. This phase is important in the learning process because it allows you to take ownership of the work you have done, to make another part of your brain work, to let other profiles express themselves (some are more at ease in this exercise than in the previous one). It is therefore up to you to motivate them and make them take this stage seriously.

==Competition==

===Principle===

To motivate the participants to play the game of the creative phase, a good solution is to put them in competition and to make a contest between the tables. It is up to the table to make the most beautiful Climate Fresk (the theory, in this case, is irrelevant). The jury can be the facilitator(s) or the participants themselves. In the latter case, ask them to draw a frame on their mural so that the other participants can vote with a cross. Each person has only one vote and you cannot vote for your own mural.

Tips to make the vote real: everyone puts their hand on a mural and you count (this prevents cheating!). The winners get the right to... make a pitch in front of everyone!
===Objection===
It is sometimes objected that it is not congruent to use the competitive mode to animate the mural when, on the other hand, we advocate collaboration and mutual aid to try to save the world. The association has no position on this point. One can be against the idea of using the competitive mode, but one can also consider that the competition is a strong emulation between the teams and that it serves the playful character. When it takes place in a playful or sporting context, it has nothing to do with the competition we are talking about in the economic field. To conclude, and to be consistent with the 'Swarmwise' organization, it is up to the facilitator to decide on the mode of facilitation. In the case of an event with several facilitators, the coordinator's opinion prevails. He/she can decide to impose the contest, to forbid it or to let each moderator choose.

===Choice of title===

The choice of title is a crucial moment in the development of the Climate Fresk. It comes during the creative phase, but it is important to remember to tell the participants from the beginning so that they leave a free space to write it. The choice of the title is often the moment when participants will put into words for the first time what they felt when they learned about the climate. The first ideas for titles are often very dark ("the end of the world", "the destruction of Man by Man", etc.). Don't discourage them, it's important that everyone expresses their feelings at this point. The team will surely decide on its own, in collective intelligence, to choose a more "positive" title.
=Pitch=
The pitch consists of making a presentation on climate change using the freshly painted mural hanging on a wall. If there is a competition between the teams, the winners make the pitch. Otherwise, the team should do it. Avoid having each team make a pitch, otherwise it will be long and boring as it may be the same thing N times. If all the teams really want to participate, then ask them to talk about one card/link that stood out for them more than the others, or about their title.

=Debriefing=

==Presentation==

The debriefing is the most important part of the facilitation. In the end, the beginning was just to make sure that the debate that follows takes place, that it is interesting, that the participants have the right information and that they are in a good mood.

It is complicated to give advice on how to facilitate the debate, because it is the talent of the facilitator who will do everything, his knowledge, sensitivity and experience of facilitation on these subjects. Here are a few elements, however:
*Do not intervene too much and let the participants speak. The debate must not become a question and answer session with the expert. If we are heading towards that, why not for 10 minutes, but then we need to go around the table so that participants become more active and speak in turn.
*Circulate the floor and pay attention to who has raised their hand and in what order. If the facilitator simply distributes the floor, that is already very good. Eventually, rules of non-verbal communication should be established, as shown in the image below.

[[File:Hands signals-Occupy-A4.png|alt=hand signals image from the Occupy movement wikipage|border|frameless]]

==Solution==

Some players express the regret of not addressing the solutions after such a heavy, even depressing report. It is a conscious choice of the author not to propose a solution in the Climate Fresk. There are many reasons for this:

The first is that the solutions are not of the same nature as the scientific findings. All the data in the Climate Fresk come from the IPCC reports and are indisputable. The solutions, on the other hand, are political, subjective and must be debated. It would be completely artificial to add solution maps and it would undermine the credibility of the tool, whose highest praise is that it is "non-partisan".

The second is that the solutions that come to mind depend very much on our level of awareness of environmental issues. First we think of renewable energies, then we read Philippe Bihouix and realise that there won't be enough minerals to make wind turbines and photovoltaic panels to replace fossil fuels. So we understand that we will have to invest in energy efficiency instead. But here again, if you read William Stanley Jevons (Jevons' Paradox or the Rebound Effect) or François Roddier (Thermodynamics of Evolution), you will understand that all the gains in efficiency will only speed up the economy and will not prevent us from going into the wall. And above all, we have only gained 1% per year in energy efficiency for decades and this is not up to the challenge. We then start to question economic growth, the notion of GDP, and even the growth of the world population. Finally, when you have read the report to the Club of Rome or the books of Pablo Servigne, you are ready to talk about collapse.

Here, in a few steps, is the path taken by many climate activists. It's an individual journey and it's important to respect each person's pace. Talking about de-growth to someone who is only at the beginning of their awareness is premature and counterproductive. It can trigger reactions of rejection. It is therefore up to the facilitator to guide the participants during the debriefing, adapting to their level of awareness and their sensitivities.

==Tip for starting the debate==

Most of the time, the hardest part is to start the debate. After that, the participants respond to each other. Here are some methods to get the debate going:
*Ask which card made the biggest impression on them, and why.
*Ask what information they got from it and what their next action should be
*Assess the group's optimism on the climate issue by raising their hands higher or lower, and then ask some of the extremes to present their idea.

[[fr:Animation]]