Climate Fresk - User contributions [en]

En-en adult batch 5

2021-10-31T20:22:07Z

Ouahcene:

{{Batch
|num=5
|game=Adult
}}

This batch presents other climate-related disasters, as well as the consequences for humankind. The last two cards introduce a climatic feedback loop. The recommended duration is '''15 minutes'''.

==Cards==
*[[En-en adult card 28 vectors of disease|Vectors of Disease]]
*[[En-en adult card 31 freshwater resources|Freshwater Resources]]
*[[En-en adult card 32 decline agricultural yields|Decline in Agricultural Yields]]
*[[En-en adult card 35 forest fires|Forest Fires]]
*[[En-en adult card 36 heat waves|Heat Waves]]
*[[En-en adult card 37 famines|Famines]]
*[[En-en adult card 38 human health|Human Health]]
*[[En-en adult card 39 climate refugees|Climate Refugees]]
*[[En-en adult card 40 armed conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]
*[[En-en adult card 41 permafrost|Permafrost]]
*[[En-en adult card 42 weakening gulf stream|Weakening Gulf Stream]]

==Correction==

[[File:En_en_Adult_Batch_5 Oct 2021.png|1000px]]

Once the batch is finished and any questions have been answered, move on to the [[En-en creative part|creative part]].

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_lot_5]]

File:En en Adult Batch 5 Oct 2021.png

2021-10-31T20:21:47Z

Ouahcene: Includes updated cards (Oct 2021)

== Summary ==
Includes updated cards (Oct 2021)

En-en adult batch 4

2021-10-31T20:21:30Z

Ouahcene:

{{Batch
|num=4
|game=Adult
}}

This batch highlights observable climate-related natural disasters, as well as consequences on the oceans. The recommended duration for this batch is '''15 minutes'''.

==Cards==
*[[En-en adult card 23 hindered calcification process|Calcification Difficulties]]
*[[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
*[[En-en adult card 26 river flooding|River Flooding]]
*[[En-en adult card 27 marine biodiversity|Marine Biodiversity]]
*[[En-en adult card 29 pteropods and coccolithophores|Pteropods and Coccolithophores]]
*[[En-en adult card 30 droughts|Droughts]]
*[[En-en adult card 33 marine submersion|Marine Submersion]]
*[[En-en adult card 34 cyclones|Cyclones]]

==Facilitation advice==
*If there are false connections around [[En-en adult card 30 droughts|Droughts]] and [[En-en adult card 33 marine submersion|Marine Submersion]], it can be useful to ask the players what the difference is between these two cards. The correction will follow easily.

==Correction==

[[File:En_en_Adult_Batch_4 Oct 2021.png|1000px]]

Once the batch is finished and any questions have been answered, move on to [[En-en adult batch 5|batch 5]].

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_lot_4]]

File:En en Adult Batch 4 Oct 2021.png

2021-10-31T20:21:14Z

Ouahcene: Includes updated cards (Oct 2021)

== Summary ==
Includes updated cards (Oct 2021)

En-en adult batch 3

2021-10-31T20:20:41Z

Ouahcene:

{{Batch
|num=3
|game=Adult
}}

This batch is about the physics behind climate change. It's the most complicated batch and takes the most time. The recommended duration is '''20 minutes''' for the full version of the game.

==Cards==
*[[En-en adult card 10 aerosols|Aerosols]]
*[[En-en adult card 14 energy budget|Energy Budget]]
*[[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing|Radiative Forcing]]
*[[En-en adult card 16 melting of glaciers|Melting Glaciers]]
*[[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]]
*[[En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]
*[[En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle|Disruption of the Water Cycle]]

==Facilitation advice==
*For the [[En-en simplified version|simplified version]], don't forget to remove the [[En-en adult card 10 aerosols|Aerosols]], [[En-en adult card 14 energy budget|Energy Budget]] and [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing|Radiative Forcing]] cards.
*The cards following the energy budget should be near the middle of the sheet. Don't hesitate to ask the players to move the cards around to make space.
*It is often useful to ask the players what the differences are between the three types of ice.
*Once this batch has been corrected, you can ask the players to draw in arrows in pencil.

==Correction advice==
Most of the time, batch 3 will be wrong. The connection between [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Rising Air Temperatures]] and [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting Sea Ice]] established in batch 1 does not help to understand how the [[En-en adult card 14 energy budget|Energy Budget]] leads to the five other cards. Very often, the temperature rises of water and air are seen as consequences of the energy budget. To correct this, the following is a good method:
*Ask the players to define radiative forcing with their own words. If the definition is correct, move on. Otherwise, suggest a metaphore to illustrate it.
*Ask them what the consequence of radiative forcing is. The answer is the energy budget.
*Ask them how the excess energy is distributed. The players will realise that the ice melting are on the same plane as the temperature rises and therefore will make the connections.

==Correction==

[[File:En_en_Adult_Batch_3 Oct 2021.png|1000px]]

Once the batch is finished and any questions have been answered, move on to [[En-en adult batch 4|batch 4]].

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_lot_3]]

File:En en Adult Batch 3 Oct 2021.png

2021-10-31T20:20:17Z

Ouahcene: Includes updated cards (Oct 2021)

== Summary ==
Includes updated cards (Oct 2021)

En-en adult batch 2

2021-10-31T20:19:55Z

Ouahcene:

{{Batch
|num=2
|game=Adult
}}

This batch showcases the different types of human activity, and briefly explains carbon sinks. The recommended duration for this batch is '''20 minutes'''.

== Cards ==
* [[En-en adult card 2 industry|Industry]]
* [[En-en adult card 3 building|Building Usage]]
* [[En-en adult card 4 transportation|Transportation]]
* [[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]]
* [[En-en adult card 8 agriculture|Agriculture]]
* [[En-en adult card 9 other ghgs|Other GHGs]]
* [[En-en adult card 11 concentration of co2|Concentration of CO2 (ppm)]]
* [[En-en adult card 12 carbon sinks|Carbon sinks]]
* [[En-en adult card 24 ocean acidification|Ocean Acidification]]

== Facilitation advice ==
* When introducing this batch, you can reveal that it contains a small puzzle, the association between [[En-en adult card 7 co2 emissions|CO2 emissions]] and [[En-en adult card 12 carbon sinks|carbon sinks]].
* The consequences of the [[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] and [[En-en adult card 9 other ghgs|Other GHGs]] cards are often overlooked by facilitators. Be mindful to bring them to the attention of the group if necessary.

== Correction ==

[[File:En_en_Adult_Batch_2 Oct 2021.png|1000px]]

Once the batch is finished and any questions have been answered, move on to [[En-en adult batch 3|batch 3]].

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_lot_2]]

File:En en Adult Batch 2 Oct 2021.png

2021-10-31T20:19:15Z

Ouahcene: Includes updated cards (Oct 2021)

== Summary ==
Includes updated cards (Oct 2021)

En-en adult batch 1

2021-10-31T20:18:57Z

Ouahcene:

{{Batch
|num=1
|game=Adult
}}

The purpose of this batch is mainly to understand how the game works. The recommended duration is '''15 minutes'''.

==Cards==
*[[En-en adult card 1 human activities|Human activities]]
*[[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil fuels]]
*[[En-en adult card 7 co2 emissions|CO2 emissions]]
*[[En-en adult card 13 additional greenhouse effect|Additional Greenhouse Effect]]
*[[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting sea ice]]
*[[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]
*[[En-en adult card 22 sea level rise|Rising Sea Levels]]

== Facilitation advice ==
* Make sure that the participants understand what the greenhouse effect is, and what "additional" means here.
* Make sure that the participants understand why the melting of sea ice does not cause the water to rise. If a participant really doesn't understand, we can explain to them that it is because of the rules of physics, in the same way as when we drop an object, it falls.

==Correction==
[[File:En_en_Adult_Batch_1 Oct 2021.png|1000px]]

Once the batch is finished and any questions have been answered, move on to [[En-en adult batch 2|batch 2]].

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_lot_1]]

File:En en Adult Batch 1 Oct 2021.png

2021-10-31T20:17:17Z

Ouahcene: Includes updated cards (Oct 2021)

== Summary ==
Includes updated cards (Oct 2021)

En-en adult card 9 other ghgs

2021-04-05T12:21:28Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=9
|version=adult
|title=Other GHGs
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_8_agriculture|Agriculture]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_41_permafrost|Permafrost]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_42_methane_hydrates|Methane Hydrates]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_13_additional_greenhouse_effect|Additional Greenhouse Effect]]

== Explanation ==

=== Definition and origins ===
The other GHGs described here are methane and nitrous oxide. In fact, there are a few others such as HFCs (refrigerants).

Methane is released as soon as there is anaerobic decomposition (i.e. in the absence of oxygen):

*in a cow’s belly, also known as the rumen, which gives its name to ruminants (in the rumen, bacteria digest the cellulose that the cow cannot metabolise, then the cow regurgitates this grass to chew it again and swallow it for good)
*in rice fields because they are covered with water, and the organic matter underwater does not receive oxygen when it decomposes
*in waste dumps, when the piles are too deep for oxygen to reach the bottom of the pile.

Methane is also the main component of natural gas. Leaks on gas pipelines therefore also release methane into the atmosphere.

Emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) are mainly due to the use of agricultural nitrogen fertilizers, the production of animal feed and certain chemical processes, such as the production of nitric acid.

There are also fluorinated gases which are used as refrigerants (air conditioning and cold chains), fire extinguishers and in certain industrial processes and consumer goods (such as certain solvents). They are not naturally present in the atmosphere.

===Global warming potential===
When we talk about emissions of other GHGs, we measure them in CO2eq (CO2 equivalent). This allows us to equate the emissions of other GHGs to CO2 emissions on a comparable basis. We then define the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of a gas over a certain period of time.
{| class="wikitable"
|+Global warming potential of some GHGs<ref>Page 714 of IPCC fifth assessment report, working group #1</ref>
!GHG
!Life span (years)
!GWP20
!GWP100
|-
|CH4
|12.4
|84
|28
|-
|N2O
|121
|264
|265
|}

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_9_autres_ges]]

En-en adult card 11 concentration of co2

2021-04-05T12:14:18Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=11
|version=adult
|title=Concentration of {{CO2}}
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_12_carbon_sinks|Carbon Sinks]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_13_additional_greenhouse_effect|Additional Greenhouse Effect]]

== Explanation ==
CO2 measurements have been taken since 1958 in Hawaii, on Big Island, on the flanks of the Mauna Loa volcano. They were initiated by Charles Keeling. In the blue scenario (2°C) they increase until 2040-2050, then they decrease because emissions will have been reduced so much that natural sinks no longer absorb them.

== To go further ==

=== CO2 elimination ===
The surplus CO2 is permanently stored in the atmosphere (no chemical degradation process). There are only 2 physical processes: dissolution of CO2 in the oceans, and synthesis of CO2 via photosynthesis (in the presence of photons).

Therefore<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf#page=489 IPCC Climate Change 2013 Report]</ref>:

* in 100 years' time, 40% of the surplus CO2 released today will still remain in the atmosphere
* in 1000 years' time, 20% of the surplus CO2 emitted today will still remain in the atmosphere
* in 10,000 years' time, 10% of the surplus CO2 emitted today will still remain in the atmosphere.

It is an almost irreversible process.

=== French emission factors ===
In France, the main cause of CO2 emissions has shifted from industry to transportation in 150 years.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_11_concentration_en_co2]]

En-en adult card 12 carbon sinks

2021-04-05T12:12:13Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=12
|version=adult
|title=Carbon Sinks
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_7_co2_emissions|CO2 Emissions]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_11_concentration_of_co2|Concentration of CO2]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_24_ocean_acidification|Ocean Acidification]]

== Explanation ==
The original IPCC graph represents both CO2 emissions and carbon sinks. The Climate Collage has chosen to split it in two to show where CO2 comes from and where it goes. This is why the two cards are symmetrical: every year, the CO2 emitted by humankind has to go somewhere. Any CO2 that is not absorbed by the other carbon sinks remains in the atmosphere.

The text at the back of the card gives approximate absorption rates. The more detailed percentages are:

* 27.9% for the ocean
* 28.8% for photosynthesis<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5+SummaryVolume+FINAL+FRENCH.pdf Page 51 of IPCC's fifth technical summary report (French)]</ref>.

== Facilitation tips ==
This card is to be mirrored with the [[En-en adult card 7 co2 emissions|CO2 emissions]] card. To help the players figure this out, we can show them the card and ask "Can you see anything weird about this card?". Very often they notice that the legend is written upside-down. We can then tell them that it is a puzzle to be solved and that the answer is on the table. If the players do not figure it out, they can be given some clues:

* What is the type of representation? A graph
* What type of graph? A "filled" curve
* What is the legend? The same as for CO2 emissions.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] Players often think that deforestation reduces carbon sinks. In reality, the impact is minimal because deforested areas represent a very small part of the total forest area. On the other hand, the CO2 emitted is very important.

[[En-en adult card 8 agriculture|Agriculture]] It doesn't matter if this link is not made, but it is true that agriculture can improve storage capacity through photosynthesis. This is the 0.4% principle (if we increased the soil's capacity to sequester carbon by even 0.4%, we would have a significant impact on CO2).

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 32 decline agricultural yields|Decline in agricultural yields]] Studies have shown that yields increase with increased CO2, but that the nutrient content of vegetables is reduced as a result, because trace elements are not more abundant when yields increase.

== To go further ==

=== Variation in photosynthesis ===
On this card, we can see that in some years photosynthesis drops to 0, and varies greatly from one year to another. The explanation comes from the fact that the residual carbon sink is calculated from the remaining value of the other variables<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=66 Page 66 of IPCC's Fifth report summary - Working group #1 (French)]</ref>. This is why negative values are sometimes found. In this graph, emissions and their distribution only include flows that have varied since 1750, without the natural CO2 flows, such as CO2 degassing from lakes, rivers and oceans. However, the IPCC does not clearly explain why such a variation can be read on the graph.

It can be added that the atmospheric concentration has increased sharply in years with an El Niño phenomenon because it makes it difficult for vegetation to absorb carbon<ref>[https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/19/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2019.pdf#page=48 The Global Carbon Project, 2019]</ref>.

=== Carbon sinks capacity ===
[https://jancovici.com/changement-climatique/gaz-a-effet-de-serre-et-cycle-du-carbone/les-puits-de-carbone-ne-vont-ils-pas-absorber-le-surplus-de-co2/ Jean-Marc Jancovici’s web site - Won't "carbon sinks" absorb excess CO2? (French)]

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_12_puits_de_carbone]]

En-en adult card 13 additional greenhouse effect

2021-04-05T12:09:29Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=13
|version=adult
|title=Additional Greenhouse Effect
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_9_other_ghgs|Other GHGs]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_11_concentration_of_co2|Concentration of CO2]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_15_radiative_forcing|Radiative forcing]]

== Explanation ==

On this card, we can see arrows of two colours:

* The orange arrows represent the energy '''that comes from the sun''' (UV, visible light and high-frequency infrared) and that which is reflected by the albedo effect at the same frequency. Albedo is the ability of a body to reflect light (a black body has an albedo of 0, a mirror has an albedo of 1, the earth has an average albedo of 0.31).
* The red arrows represent low frequency infrared energy, '''emitted by the Earth''', which is less warm than the sun, or retained by the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect is based on the fact that it is not the same incoming radiation as outgoing radiation.

On the right, -18°C is the temperature we would have on Earth without the greenhouse effect and 15°C is the planet's average temperature today.

It was 14°C in 1850, i.e. before human activity produced this additional greenhouse effect.

== Facilitation advice ==
This card can be used to explain the greenhouse effect or radiative forcing.

The image of a blanket can be used to explain the additional greenhouse effect. Under the blanket, which symbolises natural greenhouse effect you are nice and warm. But the GHGs that humankind sends into the atmosphere thicken the blanket and it gets hotter and hotter.
[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_14_effet_de_serre_additionnel]]

En-en adult card 14 energy budget

2021-04-05T11:09:16Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=14
|version=adult
|title=Energy Budget
}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf#page=280 Figure 1 in Chapter 3, IPCC Working Group 1.5 report]</ref>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_15_radiative_forcing|Radiative forcing]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting of glaciers]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_18_melting_of_sea_ice|Melting of Sea Ice]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting of Ice Sheets]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Temperature Rise]]

== Explanation ==
On the graph, you can see several colours that represent, from top to bottom:

* In light blue, the upper layer of the ocean, between 0 and 700m
* In dark blue, the lower layer of the ocean, between 700m and 2000m
* In white, the different types of ice
* In orange, the soil
* In purple, the atmosphere.

The dotted lines represent uncertainty.

== Facilitation advice ==

=== Simplified version ===
This card can be removed for the simplified version, at the same time as the [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing|radiative forcing]] and [[En-en adult card 10 aerosols|aerosols]].

=== Full version ===
If you choose to keep this card, you need to remember the first principle of thermodynamics: energy is conserved. Players may draw links from Energy budget to [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]] and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Temperature Rise]], then links from [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Temperature Rise]] to [[En-en adult card 16 melting of glaciers|Melting of glaciers]] and [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]] to [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting of Sea Ice]] and [[En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets|Melting of Ice Sheets]]. By doing this, they consider that the air and water warm up, and then they melt the pack ice, glaciers and ice caps. But if a calorie has passed through the water and finally contributes to melting the pack ice from below, then it is no longer in the water.

=== Explanation advice ===
A tip to simplify the explanation of this card is to rename the following cards. An increase in temperature is an increase in energy, and melting is also an increase in energy. The five cards then become Increase in the energy level of water, air, sea ice... And the players will understand that these five cards have to be put at the same level. So if a calorie that is in the water contributes to melting the pack ice, once the pack ice has melted, this calorie is no longer in the water. The water has cooled down. In this case, should the calorie be counted in the "ocean" or "melting ice" part? Answer: in the melting part of the ice. You can't count this calorie twice.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 41 permafrost|Permafrost]] and [[En-en adult card 42 methane hydrates|Methane Hydrates]] If we want to stay within the same logic of energy conservation, we would have to make the melting link from the Energy budget.

== To go further ==

=== Figures ===
Oceans cover 71% of the earth's surface, with an average depth of 4 km. If air were reduced to the same density as water, its height would be 10m. The ocean has a very high density, which explains why it absorbs most of the energy related to GHGs emitted by man.

=== Videos ===
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFT5Mx0eK3U&feature=youtu.be Video presentation of the map by Rodolphe Meyer (French)]

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_14_budget_énergétique]]

En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing

2021-04-05T11:05:49Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=15
|version=adult
|title=Radiative forcing
}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf#page=715 Figure 8.18, Report 5 Working Group 1]</ref>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_13_additional_greenhouse_effect|Additional Greenhouse Effect]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_10_aerosols|Aerosols]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]

== Explanation ==
Together with the coccolithophores, this card is the one that impresses the players the most. It is important to explain it well. One way to play it down is to say that Radiative Forcing is just a measurement.

The Earth receives energy from the Sun and radiates it back to space in the form of infrared rays. It should be in a state of in thermal equilibrium and the average temperature should be constant.

Anything that causes the Earth to move away from this thermal equilibrium, whether natural (sun, volcanoes) or anthropogenic (aerosols, GHGs), is called radiative forcing.

Caution: the definition has been simplified for educational purposes. A rigorous definition would be as follows: "Radiative forcing is the measure of the imbalance between the energy that arrives every second on Earth and the energy that would leave if the temperature had remained fixed since 1750". As the earth's temperature has risen in the meantime, the delta between instantaneous heat exchanges has decreased. Similarly, in 2050, in the [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing#RCP|RCP]]2.6 scenario, the forcing will be 2.6 W/m2, but the temperature will have stabilised, meaning that the delta between incoming and outgoing energy will be zero.

On the main graph, we can see the different components of the radiative forcing :

* in the upper part, the warming effects
* in the lower part, the cooling effects

The greenhouse effect (CO2 + Other WMGHG + Trop O3) represents a positive forcing of 3.1 W/m2 . It is therefore in the upper part of the graph.

Aerosols (Aer - Rad Int. + Aer - Cld Int.) have a cooling effect and are therefore in the lower part of the graph.

For more details on this graph, see the Radiative Forcing fact sheet.

The secondary graph represents the radiative forcing over two and a half centuries (history and projections). In the 5th IPCC report, the radiative forcing is 2.3 W/m2. The values of the forcing in 2100 gave their name to the IPCC scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 etc.). The colours of these scenarios can be found in the graphs of maps n°5, 11, 15, 21, 22 and 24.

For more details on this graph, see the fact sheet on PCR scenarios.

== To go further ==

=== Key points ===

* Card 15 suggests that 2.3 W/m2 more energy is coming in than is going out, at any given moment. This is not the case! This is the definition of the "radiation balance" and its value is almost zero: as much energy enters as leaves (or 1 W/m2 maximum to take into account the time it takes to reach equilibrium due to warming). In the IPCC report, radiative forcing is the imbalance of the energy flux that would exist if the Earth's surface (or the oceans) had been prevented from warming compared to the values that existed in 1750. But the Earth's surface has warmed (by about 1°C) and the "radiative balance", not to be confused with radiative forcing, is almost zero. The legend in Figure 8.18 on page 699 of the IPCC report, on the back of Map 15, should be understood as the flow of energy that would not be returned to space if the Earth's surface had remained stuck at its 1750 temperature. Since the radiation balance is zero, this flow of energy, called "radiative forcing", is the one that has warmed the Earth.
* There is a simple and graphic way to explain the radiative forcing using the image of the greenhouse effect map. Note the arrows on the map from 1 to 4 (1 for reflection, 2 for insolation, 3 for infrared, and 4 for the greenhouse effect arrow). Let's also add a value 5 which is the amount of energy emitted by infrared radiation on the Earth's surface. First of all, it must be said that every warm body emits radiation. The hotter the body is, the more energy it radiates and returns. The amount of energy that reaches the earth is 2-1. The amount of energy leaving the Earth is 3. The amount of energy emitted by the earth in infrared radiation is 5. In 1750, what came in was worth what went out, so 2-1 = 3. We are in equilibrium. As the greenhouse effect increases, arrow 4 grows. This is the contribution of 3.1W/m2. On the other hand, aerosols increase the size of arrow 1. This is the -0.8 W/m2 because it is the amount of energy that does not reach the Earth.
* To understand the previous diagram, we can look at the values directly. Here is a table showing the radiation balance values:

{| class="wikitable"
!
!Source
!1750
!2020
|-
| rowspan="3" |Recep
|ESun
|341
|341
|-
|ERefl
|181
|181.8
|-
|ESurf
|160
|159.2
|-
| rowspan="3" |Emis
|EEmisSurf
|490
|492
|-
|EGreenH
|330
|333.1
|-
|ESpace
|160
|158.9
|-
| rowspan="2" |Total
|EWarm
|490
|492.3
|-
|ECool
|490
|492
|}
The values presented in the table in W/m2 are as follows:

* ESun the energy emitted by the sun that reaches the Earth
* ERefl the energy reflected from Earth back into space
* ESurf the energy that reaches the earth's surface
* EEmisSurf the energy emitted by the Earth's surface
* EGreenH the energy that remains on Earth because of the greenhouse effect.
* ESpace the energy that goes back into space
* EWarm the energy that heats the Earth
* ECool that cools the Earth

So we have EWarm = ESurf + EGreenH, and ECool = EEmisSurf . The current radiative balance is EWarm-2020 - ECool2020 which is therefore 0.3 W/m2, and the radiative forcing is EWarm-2020 - ECool1750 which is therefore 2.3 W/m2.

This card should be removed for the simplified version.

=== Detail item by item ===

==== Warming effects ====

* Solar: the intensity of solar spots varies over time, with a period of 11 years. Hence the small bumps.
* BC [Black Carbon] on snow: Black carbon is soot (see map 10 Aerosols) that is deposited on snow that is white, and by albedo effect, it warms up.
* Contrails: Contrails are the streaks in aeroplanes due to aerosols and water vapour present and emitted. These trails are like artificial clouds (cirrus clouds, in this case, given their altitude and shape). At this altitude, the warming effect of the clouds (greenhouse effect) outweighs the cooling effect (albedo).
* Strat H2O [stratospheric water vapor]: Aircraft burn kerosene to propel themselves. This combustion, like all combustions, releases CO2 and water vapour. Water vapour is usually not counted in the carbon footprint of hydrocarbons because these water molecules are intended to remain in the atmosphere for only one to three weeks before being washed away by rain. As far as aeroplanes are concerned, it's a bit different because they fly at an altitude, close to the stratosphere, where, as the name suggests, the air is stratified. There are no vertical convective movements, almost no clouds and no rain. When water vapour is emitted by aeroplanes, it can stay there for several years and at that point we can start to take into account its greenhouse effect.
* Trop. O3 [Tropospheric Ozone]: Tropospheric ozone. Ozone is like cholesterol, it can be good and bad. The "good ozone" is stratospheric ozone, i.e. the ozone layer, which is very high in the atmosphere. It protects us from the sun's ultraviolet rays. The "bad ozone" is ground-level ozone, the ozone that is at ground level in "ozone pollution", especially in cities in hot weather. Ozone is a greenhouse gas, so as our activities produce it, its presence causes a positive radiative forcing. However, ozone is not included in carbon budgets. This is because we do not produce it directly. On the other hand, we do produce ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO).
* Other WMGHG [Well Mixed GreenHouse Gases]: Other WMGHG [Well Mixed GreenHouse Gases]: Other well mixed GHGs, or long-lived GHGs (synonymous because if they are long-lived, then they have time to mix well) are mainly methane, nitrous oxide and some other gases such as HFCs.
* CO2: We can see here that this is quantitatively the main element.

==== Cooling effects ====

* Aer - Rad Int. Aerosols - Radiation Interaction]: Aerosols-Radiation Interaction. This is the interaction of aerosols with the sun's rays. Clearly, it is the occulting effect. They prevent the sun's rays from reaching the ground. It is also said to be their direct effect<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=209 Definition of aerosol-radiation interaction, glossary of report 5, working group 1]</ref>.
* Aer - Cld Int. [Aerosols - Clouds Interaction] : Aerosols-Cloud interaction. Aerosols are a condensation nucleus of clouds which allows their manufacture.<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=209 Definition of aerosol-cloud interaction, glossary of report 5, working group 1]</ref> This is the indirect effect of aerosols.
* Land Use] : Land use. For example, when deforestation, a dark green surface is replaced by a light beige surface. The albedo effect cools the earth.
* Stat. O3 [stratospheric Ozone]: Stratospheric ozone. The ozone in the stratosphere, the "good ozone", which protects us from ultraviolet radiation. As the amount of ozone has decreased because of CFCs (the hole in the ozone layer), the greenhouse effect of this ozone has logically decreased. This is what you can see on this part of the graph.
* Volcanic: Large volcanic eruptions send ash into the stratosphere. The ash in the troposphere is washed away by rain in one to three weeks, but the ash that reaches the stratosphere stays much longer. This is because, as the name suggests, the air in the stratosphere is stratified, i.e. vertically stable. There are no vertical convective movements, but there are very powerful horizontal currents, the jetstreams, which mix these ashes over the entire surface of the earth. The result is a cooling of the earth for a few months to a few years. The phenomenon is similar to that of aerosols, it's just that the origin of aerosols is not the same.

=== RCP ===

RCP is an acronym for '''R'''epresentative '''C'''oncentration '''P'''athways. These are the different scenarios proposed by the IPCC. RCPs allow the estimation of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations that can be converted approximately into W/m2. Approximate equations to do this exist for CO2 (log), CH4 (quadratic) etc. Forcing is not prescribed to climate models, they are imposed either an evolution of concentrations (when they do not represent the carbon cycle) or an evolution of emissions (in this case they also calculate the feedbacks of the carbon cycle). The forcing is the result of the calculation of the atmospheric radiative code specific to each model, which is not a perfect calculation (line by line) but simplified (band by band).
=== Popularisation content of the subject ===

* Article: [https://bonpote.com/forcage-radiatif-a-la-base-du-changement-climatique/ Radiative forcing: at the root of climate change - by Bonpote (Fench)]
* Video: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj2uT2kzY4Q#t=46m56s LIVE Climate, energy and nuclear with Le Réveilleur, 47th minute]

== Facilitation advice ==

* To explain this card, we can use the metaphor of the "Greenhouse Effect" card. On the one hand, the cover around the Earth is thickening, this is the greenhouse effect, so we are accumulating energy. On the other hand, the room cools down, it's the aerosols, we lose energy. What happens? Should it be warmer or cooler under the blanklet? Radiative forcing is simply a measure of the impact of both. We can see that the greenhouse effect is more important, so overall, the energy accumulates under the blanklet.
* The name of the card may sound scary, but it simply shows radiation that has been altered. Renaming the card makes it simpler. It could be called "Man-made radiation on Earth" or "Forced radiation".

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting of Sea Ice]] pack and [[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] When sea ice melts, a white surface is replaced by a navy blue surface, which has a lower [https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo albedo] and therefore absorbs more energy. When the forest is cut down and replaced by a meadow, it is the opposite, a dark surface (the foliage) is replaced by a light surface (the meadow). All in all, the artificialization of the soil has a cooling effect on the climate.
== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_15_forçage_radiatif]]

En-en adult card 16 melting of glaciers

2021-04-05T11:02:11Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=16
|version=adult
|title=Melting of glaciers
}}

== Definition==
A glacier is a large body of ice and snow. It forms because the snow in an area does not all melt in summer […] A glacier only moves about 50 metres (160 ft) per year. New snowfalls replace the parts that flow away<ref>[https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glacier Wikipedia simple definition]</ref>.

The melting of a glacier will be referred to here when the total mass of ice has decreased over the period under consideration, regardless of the processes involved.

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
=== Consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 22 sea level rise|Sea level rise]] A melting of 100 gigatons of ice per year is equivalent to about 0.28 mm per year of mean sea level rise<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SPM_brochure_fr.pdf IPCC Report 2013 - Summary for Policymakers p7 (French)]</ref>. Thus, 15 to 35% of sea level rise is linked to the melting of glaciers, according the IPCC scenarios. 30% to 35% is linked to the expansion of water. The remainder is linked to the melting of the ice caps.

[[En-en adult card 31 freshwater resources|Freshwater Resources]] Melting glaciers threaten water supplies. Indeed, the relative importance of glacier melt water in summer can be considerable, contributing for example to 25% of August flows in the basins draining the European Alps, with an area of about 105 km2 and only 1% glacial cover<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap3_FINAL.pdf Freshwater Report 3.4.3 Glaciers, p243]</ref>.

Their disappearance could be catastrophic for cities located in valleys watered by rivers flowing down from the surrounding mountains and for freshwater fauna. Glacier meltwater also increases in importance during [[En-en adult card 30 droughts|droughts]] and [[En-en adult card 36 heat waves|heat waves]].

== Explanation of the links ==

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 26 river flooding|River flooding]] It is possible, in certain circumstances of high heat, that very fast rapid melting of glaciers may cause flooding. But the real concern about these glaciers is that they are gradually disappearing, depriving downstream irrigation of a top-up in summer.

== To go further ==

=== Observation ===
According to the IPCC, glaciers around the world are losing mass: about 220 Gigatons per year between 2006 and 2015<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in the Context of Climate Change - Summary for Decision Makers - Observed Changes and Impacts]</ref>.

=== Projections ===
In the future, by 2100, glaciers could lose around 18 ± 7% (scenario RCP2.6) or even 36 ± 11% (scenario RCP8.5) (average confidence index). These average values conceal large regional disparities: again according to the CPR8.5 scenario, up to 80% of the ice mass could disappear in areas with "small glaciers" (Central Europe, Caucasus, North Asia, Scandinavia, tropical Andes, Mexico, East Africa, Indonesia, etc.). (average confidence index). In these regions, many glaciers are very likely to disappear regardless of future GHG emissions<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in the Context of Climate Change - Summary for Decision Makers - Projected Changes and Risks]</ref> (very high confidence index).

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_16_fonte_des_glaciers]]

En-en adult card 16 melting of glaciers

2021-04-05T10:59:00Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=16
|version=adult
|title=Melting of glaciers
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_22_sea_level_rise|Sea Level Rise]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_31_freshwater_resources|Freshwater Resources]]

== Definition ==
A glacier is a large body of ice and snow. It forms because the snow in an area does not all melt in summer […] A glacier only moves about 50 metres (160 ft) per year. New snowfalls replace the parts that flow away<ref>[https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glacier Wikipedia simple definition]</ref>.

The melting of a glacier will be referred to here when the total mass of ice has decreased over the period under consideration, regardless of the processes involved.

== Explanation of the links ==

=== Consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 22 sea level rise|Sea level rise]] A melting of 100 gigatons of ice per year is equivalent to about 0.28 mm per year of mean sea level rise<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SPM_brochure_fr.pdf IPCC Report 2013 - Summary for Policymakers p7 (French)]</ref>. Thus, 15 to 35% of sea level rise is linked to the melting of glaciers, according the IPCC scenarios. 30% to 35% is linked to the expansion of water. The remainder is linked to the melting of the ice caps.

[[En-en adult card 31 freshwater resources|Freshwater Resources]] Melting glaciers threaten water supplies. Indeed, the relative importance of glacier melt water in summer can be considerable, contributing for example to 25% of August flows in the basins draining the European Alps, with an area of about 105 km2 and only 1% glacial cover<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap3_FINAL.pdf Freshwater Report 3.4.3 Glaciers, p243]</ref>.

Their disappearance could be catastrophic for cities located in valleys watered by rivers flowing down from the surrounding mountains and for freshwater fauna. Glacier meltwater also increases in importance during [[En-en adult card 30 droughts|droughts]] and [[En-en adult card 36 heat waves|heat waves]].

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 26 river flooding|River flooding]] It is possible, in certain circumstances of high heat, that very fast rapid melting of glaciers may cause flooding. But the real concern about these glaciers is that they are gradually disappearing, depriving downstream irrigation of a top-up in summer.

== To go further ==

=== Observation ===
According to the IPCC, glaciers around the world are losing mass: about 220 Gigatons per year between 2006 and 2015<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in the Context of Climate Change - Summary for Decision Makers - Observed Changes and Impacts]</ref>.

=== Projections ===
In the future, by 2100, glaciers could lose around 18 ± 7% (scenario RCP2.6) or even 36 ± 11% (scenario RCP8.5) (average confidence index). These average values conceal large regional disparities: again according to the CPR8.5 scenario, up to 80% of the ice mass could disappear in areas with "small glaciers" (Central Europe, Caucasus, North Asia, Scandinavia, tropical Andes, Mexico, East Africa, Indonesia, etc.). (average confidence index). In these regions, many glaciers are very likely to disappear regardless of future GHG emissions<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in the Context of Climate Change - Summary for Decision Makers - Projected Changes and Risks]</ref> (very high confidence index).

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_16_fonte_des_glaciers]]

En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature

2021-04-05T10:57:10Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=17
|version=adult
|title=Increase in Water Temperature
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption Water Cycle]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_22_sea_level_rise|Sea Level Rise]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_27_marine_biodiversity|Marine Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_42_methane_hydrates|Methane Hydrates]]

== Explanation ==
The ocean is warming by only about a tenth of a degree at the surface and even less under water. Why so little when it absorbs 93% of the excess energy on Earth? This is because it is much larger than the atmosphere and it has a much greater calorific capacity.

To measure this, you need to remember that the ocean covers 71% of the Earth's surface and that it has a depth of 4000 m on average. The atmosphere extends over a greater height, but if brought it back to the same density as water, it would only be 10 m thick. (That's why we gain one atmosphere of pressure every 10 m when we dive.)

The water expands very little. How can warming the ocean by a tenth of a degree result in a rise in the water level? A first answer is that the ocean is 4000 m deep on average, so a very small expansion is enough to amount to a few centimeters. A more complete explanation is given in a practical sheet.

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_17_hausse_température_eau]]

En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice

2021-04-05T10:54:09Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=18
|version=adult
|title=Melting of Sea Ice
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
=== Consequences ===
No main consequences

== Explanation ==
For a further explanation of the why of the how, Archimedes and all and everything, see the [[Link Melting of sea ice Sea level rise|explanation page]].

== Facilitation advice ==
This is the trap in [[En-en adult batch 1|Batch 1]] which almost everyone falls into, unless they have read the cards from the start. For this reason, do not ask players to read the cards during batch 1. Instead, tell them that they can try to do it without explanations and once they have fallen into the trap, ask them to read the cards.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing|Radiative forcing]] When the ice pack melts, a white surface is replaced by a dark blue surface, which has a lower albedo and therefore absorbs more energy. This relationship is not essential but it does allow another feedback loop of the game to be put forward.

=== Links to be avoided ===
[[En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle|Disruption of the water cycle]] The melting of the Arctic ice pack, but also the melting of Greenland's glaciers may lead, in the distant future, to a disruption of the thermohaline circulation (which gives rise to the Gulf Stream). But beware, the "Water Cycle" card does not refer at all to the thermohaline circulation.

[[En-en adult card 22 sea level rise|Sea Level Rise]] The melting of the ice pack is not responsible for the Sea Level Rise.

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_18_fonte_de_la_banquise]]

En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets

2021-04-05T10:52:34Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=19
|version=adult
|title=Melting of Ice Sheets
}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=56 Page 41 of the Technical Summary of the 5th IPCC Report]</ref>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_22_sea_level_rise|Sea Level Rise]]

== Explanation ==
These illustrations represent the gain or loss of mass of the caps, indicated in centimetres of water per year (cm of water/year) and measured gravimetrically. In blue the mass gain (because it snows more) and in red the losses (glaciers flow faster towards the ocean).

== Definition ==
An ice cap (or ice sheet) is a continental-scale mass of land ice, thick enough (between 1,600 and 6 400 m thick<ref>[https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/ice-sheet/ National Geographic Resource Library]</ref>) that covers most of the underlying rock formations. There are currently only two major ice sheets, one in Greenland and one in Antarctica.<ref>[https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf IPCC, 2013: Glossary (Planton, S. (coord.)). P.196. (French)]</ref>

We will speak here of melting of the ice caps when the total mass of ice has decreased over the period under consideration, whatever the processes involved.

== To go further ==

=== Numbers ===
Between 2006 and 2015, the loss of ice from the ice caps is :

* 278 billion tonnes per year for Greenland
* 155 billion tonnes per year for the Antarctic<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/03_SROCC_SPM_FINAL.pdf#page=6 IPCC, Special report on cryosphere and oceans]</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_19_fonte_des_calottes_glaciaires]]

En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle

2021-04-05T10:50:10Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=20
|version=adult
|title=Disruption Water Cycle
}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=106 Page 91 of the Technical Summary of the 5th IPCC Report (French)]</ref>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Temperature Rise]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_26_river_flooding|River Flooding]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]

== Explanation ==
This card is important. It alone shows why we used to talk about global warming and now about climate change.

Temperature increase is in itself a problem, but you can see on the Collage at the end that disruption of the water cycle has much more effect.

== Facilitation advice ==
To illustrate that evaporation takes place at the surface of the water, place cards [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|17]] and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|21]] on the table, place the lower edge of card 21 against the upper edge of card 17, then place card 20 at the boundary of the two, perpendicularly, to mark the surface of the water (between water and air).

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] Vegetation retains water. When it is cut down, the risk of flooding increases.

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 28 vectors of disease|Vectors of disease]] The Vectors of disease card is generally linked to the [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]] card because disease vectors are a sub-part of biodiversity, but it can also be linked to the same causes as the biodiversity card, i.e. Disruption of the Water Cycle and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Temperature Rise]].

=== Links to be avoided ===
[[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting of Sea Ice]] The melting of the Arctic ice pack, but also the melting of Greenland's glaciers may lead, in the distant future, to a disruption of the thermohaline circulation (which gives rise to the Gulf Stream). But the "Water Cycle" card does not refer at all to the thermohaline circulation.

== To go further ==

=== Popularisation ===
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqMmRdsK5WM The Mystery of the Expansion of the Tropics (French)]

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_20_perturbation_cycle_eau]]

En-en adult card 21 temperature rise

2021-04-05T10:47:09Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=21
|version=adult
|title=Temperature Rise
}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=104 Page 89 of the Technical Summary of the 5th IPCC Report (French)]</ref>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption Water Cycle]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_36_heat_waves|Heat Waves]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_41_permafrost|Permafrost]]

== Explanation ==
This card can play two roles:

* Either it's the temperature of the air, and therefore of the atmosphere. This is how it should be interpreted when you have kept cards 10, 14 and 15. In this case, the previous card is 14.
* Either it represents the temperature of the Earth (and this is good because the definition of the temperature of the Earth is precisely the temperature of the air, at ground level, on average at the surface of the Earth). In this case, the previous card is 13 and we can link to cards 16, 17, 18 and 19.

At the current rate of warming, 0.2°C per decade, the warming will reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2050.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 28 vectors of disease|Vectors of disease]] The vectors of disease card is generally linked to the [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]] card because disease vectors are a sub-part of biodiversity, but it can also be linked to the same causes as the biodiversity card, i.e. Disruption of the Water Cycle and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Temperature Rise]].

== To go further ==

=== Additional data ===
The ocean absorbs 93% of the excess energy on earth. How is it that it only warms up by a tenth of a degree at the surface and even less under water? This is because it is much more massive than the atmosphere and has a much greater calorific capacity. To measure this, we have to remember that the ocean covers 71% of the earth's surface and that it has a depth of 4000m on average. The atmosphere has a greater thickness, but if we bring it back to the same density as water, it is only 10m thick (this is why we gain one atmosphere of pressure every 10 m when we dive).

At the current rate of warming, 0.2°C per decade, warming will reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2050.

The current level of ambition to slowly reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a global warming of more than 3°C by 2100 and would therefore not respect the objective of the Paris Agreement.

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C would imply reducing CO2 emissions by 25% by 2030 and reaching a net zero rate by 2070.

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would imply reducing CO2 emissions by 50% by 2030 and reaching a net zero level by 2050. This would require rapid, profound and unprecedented transitions in energy systems, land use, urban, industrial and infrastructure systems, using a range of technologies and behavioural changes.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_21_hausse_température]]

En-en adult card 21 temperature rise

2021-04-05T10:46:21Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=21
|version=adult
|title=Temperature Rise
}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=104 Page 89 of the Technical Summary of the 5th IPCC Report (French)]</ref>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption Water Cycle]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_36_heat_waves|Heat Waves]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_41_permafrost|Permafrost]]

== Explanation ==
This card can play two roles:

* Either it's the temperature of the air, and therefore of the atmosphere. This is how it should be interpreted when you have kept cards 10, 14 and 15. In this case, the previous card is 14.
* Either it represents the temperature of the Earth (and this is good because the definition of the temperature of the Earth is precisely the temperature of the air, at ground level, on average at the surface of the Earth). In this case, the previous card is 13 and we can link to cards 16, 17, 18 and 19.

At the current rate of warming, 0.2°C per decade, the warming will reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2050.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 28 vectors of disease|Vectors of disease]] The vectors of disease card is generally linked to the [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]] card because disease vectors are a sub-part of biodiversity, but it can also be linked to the same causes as the biodiversity card, i.e. Disruption of the Water Cycle and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Temperature Rise]].

== To go further ==

=== Additional data ===
The ocean absorbs 93% of the excess energy on earth. How is it that it only warms up by a tenth of a degree at the surface and even less under water? This is because it is much more massive than the atmosphere and has a much greater calorific capacity. To measure this, we have to remember that the ocean covers 71% of the earth's surface and that it has a depth of 4000m on average. The atmosphere has a greater thickness, but if we bring it back to the same density as water, it is only 10m thick (this is why we gain one atmosphere of pressure every 10 m when we dive).

At the current rate of warming, 0.2°C per decade, warming will reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2050.

The current level of ambition to slowly reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a global warming of more than 3°C by 2100 and would therefore not respect the objective of the Paris Agreement.

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C would imply reducing CO2 emissions by 25% by 2030 and reaching a net zero rate by 2070.

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would imply reducing CO2 emissions by 50% by 2030 and reaching a net zero level by 2050. This would require rapid, profound and unprecedented transitions in energy systems, land use, urban, industrial and infrastructure systems, using a range of technologies and behavioural changes.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_21_hausse_température]]

En-en adult card 22 sea level rise

2021-04-05T10:42:19Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=22
|version=adult
|title=Sea Level Rise
}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=115 Page 100 du Résumé Technique du 5ème rapport du GIEC (French)]</ref>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting of glaciers]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting of Ice Sheets]]

=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]

== Explanation ==
It is important to note that the forecasts for the rise in water levels are very conservative. Some phenomena, understood qualitatively but not quantitatively, are simply not quantified in the IPCC report.

This is the case for moulins, for example. Moulins, or glacier mills, are shafts that carry melted water from the surface of a glacier or an ice sheet down to the bedrock. Once the water enters these passages, it lubricates the contact between the bedrock and the ice sheet, making it easier for the glaciers to drift towards the sea.

The figures for sea level rise will therefore most likely be revised upwards in future reports.

== Other possible links ==

=== Links to be avoided ===
[[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting of Sea Ice]] is not responsible for the rise of sea levels.

More information on the [[Link Melting of sea ice Sea level rise|link explanation page]].

== To go further ==

=== Key points ===

* Water hardly expands. How can ocean warming of a tenth of a degree result in a rise of the water level? The quick answer is that the ocean is 4,000 metres deep on average, so a very slight expansion is enough to make it a few centimetres deeper. A more complete answer is to talk about water's expansion coefficient. It happens to depend on the temperature. Between 0 and 4°C, it is negative, i.e. the water contracts when it warms up. This value of 4°C is precisely the value of the temperature at the bottom of many lakes. This is logical because water that is either colder or warmer is lighter than water at 4°C. It is at 4°C that the water is the densest, so it ends up at the bottom. If we look at the temperature of the ocean, over all latitudes and at all depths, it varies for the most part between 0°C and 10°C, with an average value probably around 4°C. So in theory, around this value, the expansion coefficient is zero. So how much can the ocean expand? In reality, it is in areas where the water temperature is higher that the ocean expands. When the water reaches 20°C, or even much higher temperatures, several tens of metres deep, then there is reason to see water dilation in these areas. We can then imagine how difficult it is to calculate the rise in the water level: to do so, we need to know with great precision the distribution of water temperatures, including at depth, and also to know the temperature rise in certain areas.
* Another important point: the rise in water levels is due both to an increase in its mass (melting of glaciers and ice caps) and to an increase in volume (expansion of water). This increase in water volume is not homogenous: it takes place in areas where water expands, i.e. in warm areas. The water level is not horizontal! Hot water floats in relation to cold water, it's just that we rarely have the opportunity to check it.
* The melting of the cryosphere (ice caps and glaciers) has become the dominant factor in sea level rise<ref>Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Conference in Lyon, 58'51 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73qkhnhbyGI&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73qkhnhbyGI&feature=youtu.be (French)]</ref>.

=== Numbers ===
About 11% of the world's population lives below 10 metres, and these areas produce 14% of domestic products<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/11_SROCC_CCB9-LLIC_FINAL.pdf#page=2 IPCC, Special report on cryosphere and oceans]</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_22_montée_des_eaux]]

En-en adult card 23 hindered calcification process

2021-04-05T10:39:14Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=23
|version=adult
|title=Hindered Calcification Process
}}
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_24_ocean_acidification|Ocean Acidification]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_29_pteropods_and_coccolithophores|Pteropods and Coccolithophores]]

== Explanation ==
The formation of limestone (calcification) follows the chemical reaction Ca++ + 2HCO3- ⇔ CaCO3 + H2O + CO2

It requires the presence of bicarbonate ions (HCO3-). However, the quantity of these ions in water depends on the pH: in water, carbon dioxide, carbonic acid, bicarbonate ions and carbonates ion are in equilibrium, depending on the pH :

CO2 + H2O ⇔ H2CO3 ⇔ H+ + HCO3- ⇔ 2 H+ + CO32-.

The addition of an acid shifts the equilibrium towards the left of the equation. In other words, if the pH drops, there are fewer bicarbonate ions, making it more difficult for organisms to build their shells.

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_23_problèmes_de_calcification]]

En-en adult card 24 ocean acidification

2021-04-05T10:37:26Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=24
|version=adult
|title=Ocean Acidification
}}<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=110 Page 95 of the Technical Summary of the 5th IPCC Report (French)]</ref>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_12_carbon_sinks|Carbon Sinks]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_23_hindered_calcification_process|Hindered Calcification Process]]

== Explanation ==
Ocean acidification is sometimes referred to as "the other carbon problem". It is not strictly speaking a consequence of climate change, but another consequence of CO2 emissions.

== Facilitation advice ==

=== Frequently mentioned link ===
The card [[En-en adult card 11 concentration of co2|Concentration of CO2 (ppm)]] is often identified as the precursor of this card. However, not every molecule that is found in the ocean was previously in the atmosphere, and therefore the most logical link is with the [[En-en adult card 12 carbon sinks|carbon sinks]] card.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_24_acidification_océan]]

En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity

2021-04-05T10:33:59Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=25
|version=adult
|title=Terrestrial Biodiversity
}}
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption Water Cycle]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Temperature Rise]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_28_vectors_of_disease|Vectors of Disease]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]

== Explanation ==
Today, the Earth's biodiversity is being undermined above all by factors other than climate change, such as deforestation, disappearance of natural habitats, use of pesticides and various forms of pollution. However, climate change will largely contribute to the disappearance of species in the coming decades.

== Facilitation advice ==
Very often this card is equated with animal biodiversity. However, it refers to both plant and animal biodiversity. If the participants only talk about animal diversity, it may be interesting to ask them to define what they call biodiversity.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 8 agriculture|Agriculture]] Pesticides (especially Round-up or neonicotinoids) come to mind here. No link with the climate, but an interesting link to make.

[[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] Deforestation causes a huge loss of biodiversity<ref>[http://www.fao.org/3/ca8642en/CA8642EN.pdf#page=18 ''The State of the World’s Forests 2020, Executive Summary'', FAO]</ref>:

* Of animal biodiversity because the forest is home to many species. The forest biodiversity index fell by 53% between 1970 and 2014.
* Of plant biodiversity because of the 60,000 known tree species, 8,000 are considered threatened.

[[En-en adult card 27 marine biodiversity|Marine biodiversity]] The two types of biodiversity can interact with each other.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_25_biodiversité_terrestre]]

En-en adult card 26 river flooding

2021-04-05T10:31:01Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=26
|version=adult
|title=River Flooding
}}
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption Water Cycle]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]

== Explanation ==
A flood is the temporary rise in the level of a river due to precipitation (whether local or upstream) or melting snow or ice.

== Facilitation advice ==
Players can be asked what the difference is between flooding and [[En-en adult card 33 marine submersion|Marine Submersion]]. Floods come from rain and rivers, whereas marine submersion comes from the sea.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 16 melting of glaciers|Melting of glaciers]] It is possible, under certain circumstances of high heat, that the rapid melting of glaciers may cause flooding. But the real concern about these glaciers is that they are gradually disappearing, depriving downstream irrigation of a top-up in summer.
* [[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] Vegetation retains water. If it is cut down, flooding is more likely.
* [[En-en adult card 3 building|Building usage]] Artificialization of the soil is also responsible for flooding because the soil no longer drains away excess water.

== To go further ==

=== Occurrences of this phenomenon ===

==== June 2019 ====
In Indonesia, nearly 6,000 people have fled their homes in the northern Konawe, an Indonesian province in Southeast Sulawesi, following heavy flooding that submerged parts of the region, known for its mining and plantation activities. 3,676 hectares of rice fields were destroyed<ref>[https://lecourrier.vn/indonesie-des-milliers-de-deplaces-suite-a-de-fortes-inondations-a-sulawesi-du-sud-est/607588.html Thousands displaced by heavy flooding in South-East Sulawesi (French)]</ref>. The link with [[En-en adult card 32 decline agricultural yields|Decline in Agricultural Yields]] and [[En-en adult card 39 climate refugees|Climate Refugees]] can also be seen here

==== January 2020 ====
Nine people died in Jakarta in floods, the authorities announced on Wednesday, January 1, after torrential rains during New Year's Eve. According to the authorities, about 13,000 people have been evacuated but this figure does not include the inhabitants of Jakarta's satellite cities. "We are in the process of carrying out the evacuations," Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan told the press. "All those living near rivers must expect flooding"<ref>[https://lecourrier.vn/indonesie-des-inondations-font-neuf-morts-dans-la-capitale/659834.html Indonesia: Floods claim nine lives in capital city (French)]</ref>.

==== March 2020 ====
Here is a non-exhaustive list of different examples of floods around the world:

* 4 March 2020: Hundreds of people in northern Namibia are displaced or missing as a result of flooding.
* 6 March: 53 deaths in Rwanda due to heavy rains that led to flooding. 800 houses, 23 roads, 17 bridges destroyed, 200 hectares of agricultural land lost and thus a new manifestation of [[En-en adult card 32 decline agricultural yields|Decline in Agricultural Yields]].
* 9 March: 42 dead in south-east Brazil following a flood that caused a landslide.
* 9 March: 28 dead and 65 injured following heavy rains in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in north-west Pakistan, an example of [[En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle|disruption of the water cycle]].
* 14 March 2020: 3 people die in a landslide following heavy rains in Darjeeling, India.
* 17 March 2020: 3,000 houses and 7,000 hectares of agricultural land destroyed by flooding in Tanzania.
* 19 March 2020 : Flooding in Duhok, Iraq destroys 400 homes and 200 vehicles.
* 22 March: 10 dead and hundreds of people forced to move, becoming [[En-en adult card 39 climate refugees|Climate Refugees]] following flooding in Papua New Guinea.
* 23 March: 700,000 people are displaced by flooding in Zambia awaiting food aid.
* 25 March 2020: 14 people die in 7 provinces of Iran and 2000 homes are destroyed in the Kerman region due to flooding.
* Whole month 1600 people displaced in Burundi due to floods.

==== Late March/early April 2020 ====
80,000 people have been affected by floods in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leaving at least 25 dead. Those left homeless by the floods find themselves exposed to [[En-en adult card 38 human health|infection and disease]]. The risk of cholera, endemic in the region, is increasing. The province of South Kivu also hosts nearly 50,000 Burundian [[En-en adult card 39 climate refugees|Climate Refugees]] out of a total of 500,000 throughout the country. Local authorities are working to build shelters, latrines and water and sanitation facilities, highlighting the problems related to [[En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle|freshwater resources]]<ref>[https://www.unhcr.org/fr/news/briefing/2020/4/5e9ed4e3a/rdc-dizaines-morts-80-000-personnes-touchees-graves-inondations-sud-kivu.html UNHCR, DRC: Dozens dead and 80,000 people affected by severe flooding in South Kivu (French)]</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_26_crues]]

En-en adult card 27 marine biodiversity

2021-04-05T10:27:31Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=27
|version=adult
|title=Marine Biodiversity
}}
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_29_pteropods_and_coccolithophores|Pteropods and Coccolithophores]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_37_famines|Famines]]

== Explanation ==
For the moment, marine biodiversity is more endangered by overfishing than by climate change or acidification. But in the long term, these two phenomena will considerably increase their pressure. The FAO estimates that between 660 and 820 million people worldwide, about 10% of the world's population, are directly or indirectly dependent on fisheries and aquaculture.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 1 human activities|Human activities]] With this link, we can signify all the degradations that humankind is inflicting on marine life, such as plastic pollution and overfishing. This is irrelevant to the subject of climate change, but it is interesting to make the link anyway. If we are talking to an older audience, we can for example mention the size of sardine tins which has decreased because they don't have time to grow before they are fished.

[[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial biodiversity]] The two types of biodiversity can interact with each other.

== To go further ==

=== Direct impact of human activities ===
Overfishing is the main cause of the disappearance of fish. Here are some numbers:

* Every year, between 1,000 and 2,700 billion fish are caught<ref>[http://fishcount.org.uk/studydatascreens/2016/fishcount_estimates_list.php ''Fishcount estimates of numbers of individuals killed in (FAO) reported fishery production'', FishCount]</ref>. If humans were killed at the same rate, it would take only 37 hours to exterminate the human population.
* Plastic pollution kills 1.5 million marine animals<ref>[https://conserveturtles.org/information-sea-turtles-threats-marine-debris/ ''Information About Sea Turtles: Threats from Marine Debris'', Sea turtle Conservacy]</ref>, or 0.0001% of all fishing-related deaths.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_27_biodiversité_marine]]

En-en adult card 28 vectors of disease

2021-04-05T10:23:56Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=28
|version=adult
|title=Vectors of Disease
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]

== Explanation ==
The problem is not so much the proliferation of vectors of disease as their displacement. This card ideally comes after card 25, as vectors of disease are a sub-part of biodiversity.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle|Disruption of the water cycle]] and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|temperature rise]]: The vectors of disease card is generally linked to the [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]] card because vectors of disease are a sub-part of biodiversity, but it can also be linked to the same causes as the biodiversity card, i.e. disruption of the water cycle and temperature rise.

[[En-en adult card 41 permafrost|Permafrost]]: Permafrost contains billions of buried bacteria and viruses. If it were to thaw, some of these pathogens could end up contaminating human or animal populations. In 2016, there was an anthrax epidemic in Siberia because of a 75-year-old carcass that was reported to have thawed<ref>[https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2016/08/01/epidemie-anthrax-renes-siberie-fonte-permafrost_n_11292554.html Anthrax epidemic in Siberia kills 1500 reindeer as permafrost thaws (French)]</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_28_vecteurs_de_maladie]]

En-en adult card 29 pteropods and coccolithophores

2021-04-05T10:21:57Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=29
|version=adult
|title=Pteropods and Coccolithophores
}}
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_23_hindered_calcification_process|Hindered Calcification Process]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_27_marine_biodiversity|Marine Biodiversity]]

== Facilitation advice ==
This is a card that makes people laugh because of the difficulty in pronouncing and remembering these words. Learn them by heart and brazenly pretend they are obvious :-)

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_29_ptéropodes_et_coccolithophores]]

En-en adult card 30 droughts

2021-04-05T10:19:34Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=30
|version=adult
|title=Droughts
}}
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption Water Cycle]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_26_river_flooding|River Flooding]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_31_freshwater_resources|Freshwater Resources]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_35_forest_fires|Forest Fires]]

== Explanation ==
A drought is a period of abnormal water shortage. A meteorological drought is when there is a drop in rainfall, and an agricultural drought is when soil moisture drops abnormally, affecting crop production. A mega-drought is a persistent and widespread drought that lasts much longer than normal (usually a decade or more)<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=216 Glossary for Report 5, Working Group 1](French)</ref>.

Lack of rainfall and evaporation from the ground are the causes of droughts, as well as soil erosion.

== To go further ==

=== Occurrences of this phenomenon ===

==== Africa ====
The worst drought in Africa hit in 2020: according to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), 45 million people are in a situation of severe food insecurity. These include Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe<ref>[https://fr.wfp.org/communiques-de-presse/afrique-australe-les-agences-de-lonu-appellent-soutenir-davantage-les UN World Food Programme, Southern Africa: UN agencies call for more support for hungry people in the face of climate shocks (French)]</ref>.

Tree density is declining in the western Sahel and semi-arid Morocco, beyond the changes due to land use. (IPCC WG2 AR5)

==== Asia ====
In the 1960s, the Aral Sea was the fourth largest lake in the world, more than twice the size of Belgium (70,000km²)<ref>[https://observers.france24.com/fr/20090827-mort-mer-aral-ouzbekistan-kazakhstan-urss-environnement France 24, The death of the Aral Sea (Frech)]</ref>. Today, it has almost disappeared: the Aral Sea has lost 75% of its surface area, 14 metres in depth and 90% of its volume<ref>[http://www.cawater-info.net/aral/data/tabs_e.htm Project INTAS-0511 REBASOWS, ''Database of the Aral Sea / Bathymetric characteristics'']</ref>, which has increased its salinity and caused the disappearance of most endemic species. The number of fish species has fallen from 32 to 6. Shipwrecks can be seen on the old seabed<ref>[https://lewebpedagogique.com/seconde3hg/files/2017/01/Pages-manuel-mer-dAral.pdf The Educational Web, The Aral Sea, repairing a man-made disaster (French)]</ref>.

In India in 2009: the lowest rainy season since 1970 and the strong first year that rice imports have been necessary to feed its population since the late 1980s.

Decreasing soil moisture in central and northeast China (1950 -2006) (IPCC WG2 AR5 medium confidence, major contribution from climate change)

==== Europe ====
Appearance of desert landscapes in south-eastern Spain<ref>[https://www.consoglobe.com/espagne-desertification-cg Consoglobe, Desertification is gaining ground in Spain (French)]</ref>.

In France, since 2001, 670 natural disasters have been recorded in metropolitan France and the overseas departments. They have caused 15,539 deaths, 96% of which were due to the heatwave of 2003, and cost more than 10 billion euros in insured damage alone<ref>[https://www.banquedesterritoires.fr/670-catastrophes-naturelles-lorigine-de-plus-de-15000-morts-depuis-2001#:~:text=La%20temp%C3%AAte%20Klaus%20de%202009,665%20millions%20d'euros) Banque des Territoires Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations, Risks - 670 natural disasters causing more than 15,000 deaths since 2001 (French)]</ref>.

The drought of 2003 was the most costly in its history<ref>[http://www.senat.fr/rap/r09-039/r09-039_mono.html Information Report No. 39 (2009-2010) by Mr. Jean-Claude FRÉCON and Mrs. Fabienne KELLER, made on behalf of the Finance Committee, Drought of 2003: a past that doesn't go by (French)]</ref>, affecting 8,000 French communes and having to push legislation to change its definition of natural disasters, because the drought led to landslides and made land totally uninhabitable.

==== Americas ====
In the United States, autumn 2012 saw the worst drought in 25 years: 80% of agricultural land was affected, with two-thirds of the farms affected, leading to 4% inflation in food prices in 2013. In 7 American states, agricultural yield statistics have highlighted a depletion of water resources ranging from 90% to 100% (Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas, Colorado, Dakota, Nebraska...).

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_30_sécheresses]]

En-en adult card 31 freshwater resources

2021-04-05T10:16:20Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=31
|version=adult
|title=Freshwater Resources
}}
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting of glaciers]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]

== Explanation ==
The biggest issue here is the disappearance of the glaciers. They serve as reservoirs of fresh water in solid form and melt to supply downstream irrigation for crops.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 33 marine submersion|Marine Submersion]] If sea water rises, it can penetrate the water tables, which are freshwater reserves.

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 37 famines|Famines]] If we consider that a famine is not only a lack of food but also a lack of water.

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_31_ressources_eau_douce]]

En-en adult card 32 decline agricultural yields

2021-04-05T10:13:26Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=32
|version=adult
|title=Decline Agricultural Yields
}}
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_21_temperaturet_rise|Temperature Rise]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_26_river_flooding|River Flooding]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_31_freshwater_resources|Freshwater Resources]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_37_famines|Famines]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]

== Explanation ==
This is one of the greatest threats to humanity. Declines in agricultural yields have already led to conflicts in Rwanda and Syria.

== Facilitation advice ==

=== Local or global impacts ===
It may be interesting to differentiate between local and global causes. Local causes are:

* [[En-en adult card 26 river flooding|River Flooding]]
* [[En-en adult card 30 droughts|Droughts]]
* [[En-en adult card 33 marine submersion|Marine Submersion]]
* [[En-en adult card 34 cyclones|Cyclones]]
* [[En-en adult card 35 forest fires|Forest Fires]]

More global causes are:

* [[En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle|Disruption of the water cycle]]
* [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Temperature rise]]
* [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial biodiversity]]
* [[En-en adult card 31 freshwater resources|Freshwater resources]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 12 carbon sinks|Carbon sinks]] Studies have shown that yields increase with increased CO2, but that the nutrient content of vegetables is reduced. Indeed, trace elements do not become more abundant when yields increase.

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_32_baisse_rendements_agricoles]]

En-en adult card 33 marine submersion

2021-04-05T10:08:50Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=33
|version=adult
|title=Marine Submersion
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_22_sea_level_rise|Sea Level Rise]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]

== Explanation ==
Not to be confused with floods. Marine submersion is seawater or ocean water rising. This rise can be exceptional because of extreme weather events, or permanent because of rising water levels.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 31 freshwater resources|Freshwater resources]] If seawater rises, it can penetrate the water tables, which are freshwater reserves.

== To go further ==

=== Examples of events ===
The Maldives and the capital Malé are already struggling to meet the challenges of submersion: the island is committed to achieving carbon neutrality, as are the Marshall Islands, whose properties are threatened every year because of a drought in 2013 and rising water levels that endanger food security. The "Pacific Small Island Developing States" PSIDS (Fiji, Marshall, Micronesia, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, etc.) are collectively positioning themselves to analyse the risks linked to climate change<ref>[https://www.un.org/esa/dsd/resources/res_pdfs/ga-64/cc-inputs/PSIDS_CCIS.pdf Pacific Small Island Developing States, ''Views on the Possible Security Implications of Climate Change to be included in the report of the Secretary-General to the 64th Session of the United Nations General Assembly'']</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_33_submersions]]

En-en adult card 34 cyclones

2021-04-05T10:06:04Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=34
|version=adult
|title=Cyclones
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]

== Definition ==
A cyclone is a whirlwind phenomenon in tropical regions (between 30°N and 30°S) accompanied by winds with speeds of 64 knots (118 km/h, or force 12 on the Beaufort scale) or more<ref>[http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/23659318-ouragan-cyclone-ou-typhon Météo France Definition (French)]</ref>.

The terms typhoon, hurricane and tropical cyclone all refer to the same phenomenon, the designation adopted simply depends on where in the world it occurs. The terms cyclone or tropical cyclone are reserved for the Indian Ocean and the South Pacific. The term hurricane, on the other hand, is used in the Northern Atlantic and North-East Pacific, and typhoon in the North-West Pacific.

== Explanation ==
There are not more cyclones because of climate change (at least we are not yet able to establish this statistically), but they are more violent.

For the upstream card, we can choose either the disruption of the water cycle, in the sense that the increase in cyclone power is an illustration of the disruption of the water cycle, or the increase in water temperature, because cyclones feed on the energy of warm water from intertropical areas. It makes less sense to have both.

== To go further ==

=== Occurrences of this phenomenon ===

==== United States ====
In September 2017, after the destruction from Hurricane Harvey in Texas in August, Hurricane Irma devastated the islands of St. Martin and St. Bartholomew's and Maria the island of Dominica.

A year later in 2018, in the Northern Atlantic, Hurricanes Helen, Isaac, Joyce and Florence moved simultaneously, the latter causing nearly 30 deaths in North Carolina.

On March 3, 2020, 19 people died in Tennessee because of a tornado that destroyed roads, bridges, businesses and buildings that will have to be rebuilt.

==== Africa ====
On 19 March 2020, a strong storm in the south of Mersin in Turkey destroyed tens of thousands of almond trees.

==== Link to [[En-en adult card 38 human health|human health]] ====
Sunday, August 2, 2020, Florida is preparing for the passage of Isaias, the hurricane that dumped torrential rains on the Bahamas the day before. It could regain strength and test the emergency services of one of the states most affected by the Covid-19 epidemic in the United States. It has more than 480,000 cases detected since the start of the pandemic, surpassing New York, long the epicentre of the American epidemic in the spring, and second only to California, which has twice the population. Due to the weather, the state has had to close Covid-19 testing centres, many of which were set up in tents, in anticipation of the hurricane's arrival, although county testing centres remain open<ref>[https://www.ouest-france.fr/monde/etats-unis/covid-19-et-ouragan-isaias-les-deux-combats-de-la-floride-6925734 Ouest France Newspaper, Covid 19 and Hurricane Isaias the two battles of Florida (French)]</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_34_cyclones]]

En-en adult card 35 forest fires

2021-04-05T10:03:25Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=35
|version=adult
|title=Forest Fires
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_36_heat_waves|Heat Waves]]
=== Consequences ===
No direct consequences.
== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]]: Deforestation is partly done by burning the forest, which can then degenerate into uncontrolled fire. This is what happened in the summer of 2019 in the Amazon and Australia.

== To go further ==

=== Mega-Fire ===
A Mega-fire is an exceptionally large fire, causing large local fires that devastate expansive areas, without this appellation corresponding to a very precise scientific definition. We usually speak of a mega-fire when the affected area is at least 1,000 to 10,000 hectares. Mega-fires account for only 3% of all fires, yet represent 50% of global losses<ref>[https://books.google.fr/books?id=X8CnDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT12&lpg=PT12&dq=m%C3%A9gafeu+d%C3%A9finition&source=bl&ots=4mr41HwgSe&sig=ACfU3U1wsXSuuJ8L6hLmP_9Gu28cC4XI3w&hl=fr&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjfjK7Dro7nAhXl8OAKHQL_C8s4ChDoATAGegQIChAB#v=onepage&q&f=false Joelle Zask, When the Forest Burns: Thinking about the New Ecological Disaster (French)]</ref>. 96% of the last 500 mega-fires in the last 10 years took place during a period of abnormally high heat and/or drought<ref>[https://www.unenvironment.org/fr/actualites-et-recits/recit/les-megafeux-sont-ils-la-nouvelle-norme United Nations Are "megafires" the new standard? (French)]</ref>.

=== Examples of events ===
In 2018, in California, 1,975,086 acres (799,200 hectares, about the size of Corsica) were burned, for a total of 8,000 fires and 100 casualties, but the burned area doubled in 2020 to reach 1,635,300 hectares (larger than Ile-De-France: the greater Paris area)<ref>[https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/ 2020 Fire Season, Cal Fire]</ref>.

In the 2019-2020 season, Australia saw a total area of 17 million hectares go up in smoke<ref>''[https://www.9news.com.au/national/australian-bushfires-17-million-hectares-burnt-more-than-previously-thought/b8249781-5c86-4167-b191-b9f628bdd164 Government set to revise total number of hectares destroyed during bushfire season to 17 million]''</ref>. This surface area represents a third of France.

Forest fires on Mount Kilimanjaro on the rise<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''low confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

Forest fires on the rise in Portugal and Greece<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''low confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>

=== Article(s) ===
[http://bancpublic.net/article.php?id=5745 Fire the Earth, on the mega-fires (French)]

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_35_incendies]]

En-en adult card 35 forest fires

2021-04-05T10:03:06Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=35
|version=adult
|title=Forest Fires
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_36_heat_waves|Heat Waves]]
=== Consequences ===
No direct consequences.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]]: Deforestation is partly done by burning the forest, which can then degenerate into uncontrolled fire. This is what happened in the summer of 2019 in the Amazon and Australia.

== To go further ==

=== Mega-Fire ===
A Mega-fire is an exceptionally large fire, causing large local fires that devastate expansive areas, without this appellation corresponding to a very precise scientific definition. We usually speak of a mega-fire when the affected area is at least 1,000 to 10,000 hectares. Mega-fires account for only 3% of all fires, yet represent 50% of global losses<ref>[https://books.google.fr/books?id=X8CnDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT12&lpg=PT12&dq=m%C3%A9gafeu+d%C3%A9finition&source=bl&ots=4mr41HwgSe&sig=ACfU3U1wsXSuuJ8L6hLmP_9Gu28cC4XI3w&hl=fr&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjfjK7Dro7nAhXl8OAKHQL_C8s4ChDoATAGegQIChAB#v=onepage&q&f=false Joelle Zask, When the Forest Burns: Thinking about the New Ecological Disaster (French)]</ref>. 96% of the last 500 mega-fires in the last 10 years took place during a period of abnormally high heat and/or drought<ref>[https://www.unenvironment.org/fr/actualites-et-recits/recit/les-megafeux-sont-ils-la-nouvelle-norme United Nations Are "megafires" the new standard? (French)]</ref>.

=== Examples of events ===
In 2018, in California, 1,975,086 acres (799,200 hectares, about the size of Corsica) were burned, for a total of 8,000 fires and 100 casualties, but the burned area doubled in 2020 to reach 1,635,300 hectares (larger than Ile-De-France: the greater Paris area)<ref>[https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/ 2020 Fire Season, Cal Fire]</ref>.

In the 2019-2020 season, Australia saw a total area of 17 million hectares go up in smoke<ref>''[https://www.9news.com.au/national/australian-bushfires-17-million-hectares-burnt-more-than-previously-thought/b8249781-5c86-4167-b191-b9f628bdd164 Government set to revise total number of hectares destroyed during bushfire season to 17 million]''</ref>. This surface area represents a third of France.

Forest fires on Mount Kilimanjaro on the rise<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''low confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

Forest fires on the rise in Portugal and Greece<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''low confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>

=== Article(s) ===
[http://bancpublic.net/article.php?id=5745 Fire the Earth, on the mega-fires (French)]

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_35_incendies]]

En-en adult card 36 heat waves

2021-04-05T10:00:49Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=36
|version=adult
|title=Heat Waves
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_21_temperaturet_rise|Temperature Rise]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_35_forest_fires|Forest Fires]]

== Explanation ==
A heat wave is a meteorological phenomenon of abnormally high air temperatures, day and night, lasting from a few days to a few weeks, over a relatively large area.

== Facilitation tips ==
This card can have a very strong potential for impact because heat waves occur in developed countries and players will have direct experience of their increase in frequency. With this card, we can highlight the fact that climate change is a global problem that does not only affect the poorest people.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 38 human health|Human health]]: Heat waves can be devastating, especially for the elderly.

== To go further ==

=== France ===
One hundred and sixteen scientists concluded, in a study published by the American Geophysical Union, that the 2016 heat wave (the warmest ever recorded so far) was "only made possible by significant anthropogenic warming".

The European heat wave of June 2019 is quite intense but only lasted a week. This heat wave is especially remarkable for its earliness; in fact it takes place at the beginning of the summer, at the end of June. During this heatwave, the national heat record was broken on 28 June with 46.0°C in city of Vérargues<ref>[https://usbeketrica.com/article/climat-temperatures-invivables-atteintes-plus-tot-que-prevu Usbek & Rica Unsustainable temperatures earlier than expected (French)]</ref>.

The European heatwave at the end of July 2019 reaches its peak on Thursday 25 July. Temperatures have never been so high in the South-West, which recorded 25.4°C at the coolest part of the night<ref>[https://www.francetvinfo.fr/meteo/canicule/direct-canicule-chaleur-record-temperatures-chaud-nuit-vigilance-rouge-orange-secheresse_3550559.html France Info Record temperatures vigilance red (French)]</ref>. In Paris, the night of 24 July was the third hottest night since temperatures were recorded, with 25°C at the coolest part of the night. The record was set in August 2003 at 25.5°C. The heat wave hit the area very hard with 20 departments on red alert and 60 on orange alert on Thursday 25 July. Paris broke its absolute temperature record on that day with 42.6°C recorded at 4.32 p.m.<ref>[https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/paris-bat-son-record-absolu-de-chaleur-avec-410c-ce-jeudi-a-13h42-20190725 Le Figaro Paris beats its absolute heat record (French)]</ref>

=== United States ===
Heat waves are the deadliest weather phenomenon in the United States<ref>[https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article/24/2/190/535042 Oxford Academic ''Relation between Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality: A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence'']</ref>. Between 1992 and 2001, heat-related deaths were more than 2,190 compared with 880 deaths from floods and 150 deaths from hurricanes. Each summer more than 6,000 people are hospitalised in the United States because of the heat, which hits people unevenly. On average, households earning less than $37,000 per year are twice as affected as households earning more than $60,000<ref>[https://www.newswise.com/articles/most-people-struck-down-by-summer-heat-are-poor Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) ''Most People Struck Down by Summer Heat Are Poor'']</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_36_canicules]]

En-en adult card 37 famines

2021-04-05T09:58:55Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=37
|version=adult
|title=Famines
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_27_marine_biodiversity|Marine Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 31 freshwater resources|Freshwater resources]] if we consider that a famine is not only a lack of food but also a lack of water.

== To go further ==
12th March 2020: The Food and Agriculture Organization warns of a new locust invasion in Kenya in Somalia and Ethiopia (terrestrial biodiversity) that poses an unprecedented threat to food security (lower agricultural yields)<ref>[https://news.un.org/fr/story/2020/02/1061441 United Nations Horn of Africa: Worst locust invasion in decades (FAO) (French)]</ref>.

Decrease in the quantity of fruit trees in the Sahel<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, Food security in the Sahel (French)]</ref>.

Crop yields in South Asia declining despite technological improvements<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, minor contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_37_famine]]

En-en adult card 38 human health

2021-04-05T09:56:23Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=38
|version=adult
|title=Human Health
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_28_vectors_of_disease|Vectors of Disease]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_31_freshwater_resources|Freshwater Resources]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_37_famines|Famines]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]

== Explanation ==
It is one of the cards that can be placed last, as one of the ultimate consequences of climate change.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 36 heat waves|Heat waves]] Heat waves can be devastating, especially for older people.

== To go further ==
The Sámi are an indigenous people from an area covering northern Sweden, Norway and Finland as well as the Kola Peninsula in Russia known as Lapland. The livelihoods of the Sámi are endangered by global warming<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

The same applies to the livelihood conditions of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic Circle in Canada and Russia<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

Increase in water-borne diseases (cholera, malaria, dengue fever, diarrhoea, hepatitis (hepatitis A and E), typhoid, some meningitis in Israel, etc.).

Increasing vulnerability to the survival of Aymara farmers in Bolivia due to the lack of freshwater resources caused by global warming<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_38_santé_humaine]]

En-en adult card 38 human health

2021-04-05T09:55:24Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=38
|version=adult
|title=Human Health
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_28_vectors_of_disease|Vectors of Disease]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_31_freshwater_resources|Freshwater Resources]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil fuels]]

== Explanation ==
It is one of the cards that can be placed last, as one of the ultimate consequences of climate change.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 36 heat waves|Heat waves]] Heat waves can be devastating, especially for older people.

== To go further ==
The Sámi are an indigenous people from an area covering northern Sweden, Norway and Finland as well as the Kola Peninsula in Russia known as Lapland. The livelihoods of the Sámi are endangered by global warming<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

The same applies to the livelihood conditions of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic Circle in Canada and Russia<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

Increase in water-borne diseases (cholera, malaria, dengue fever, diarrhoea, hepatitis (hepatitis A and E), typhoid, some meningitis in Israel, etc.).

Increasing vulnerability to the survival of Aymara farmers in Bolivia due to the lack of freshwater resources caused by global warming<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_38_santé_humaine]]

En-en adult card 39 climate refugees

2021-04-05T09:46:06Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=39
|version=adult
|title=Climate Refugees
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_37_famines|Famines]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]

== To go further ==

=== Africa ===
In 2018, extreme climatic events such as droughts in Afghanistan, cyclone Gita in Samoa, floods in the Philippines led to numerous population displacements. According to the IDMC (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre) it is estimated that there will be more than 20 million climate refugees per year in the decade 2008-2018<ref>[https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries IDM ''Country displacement data'']</ref>.

From 2011 to 2012, cross-border movement of Somalis to Kenya and Ethiopia in a context of drought, food insecurity and famine, while conflict and violence also prevail in south and central Somalia<ref>[https://www.unhcr.org/5c1ba88d4.pdf United Nations ''International protection in the context of nexus dynamics between conflict or violence and disaster or climate change'']</ref>.

Between 1984 and 1985 the Ethiopian government had to resettle several tens of thousands of people from drought-stricken areas.

=== Asia and the Pacific ===
Of the 10 countries with the largest share of their displaced population, 7 are Pacific or Caribbean islands.

A European Parliament report estimates that there are 200,000 climate refugees in Bangladesh<ref>[https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/621893/EPRS_BRI(2018)621893_EN.pdf European Parliament ''The concept of 'climate refugee' Towards a possible definition'']</ref>.

Migration and Climate Change reports from the IOM (International Organization for Migration) of the United Nations :

* Cartaret Islands in Papua New Guinea,
* residents of the Lateu village in Vanuatu,
* the movements of the inhabitants of Shishmaref on the Sarichef ise in Alaska
* refugees linked to the flooding of Lohachara Island in the heart of the Hooghly River (a tributary of the Ganges River in India)

Note: for the moment, these four examples remain debatable as to their origins being linked to anthropogenic warming. However, future events are less and less debatable as the effects become more severe.

One in ten inhabitants of Kiribati, Nauru and Tuvalu have had to migrate because of climate change<ref>[https://www.nanseninitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/OR_Human_Mobility_Natural_Disasters_and_Climate_Change_in_the_Pacific.pdf THE NANSEN INITIATIVE ''Human Mobility, Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Pacific, 2013'']</ref>.

=== United States ===
In 2003 the US Immigration Service temporarily (for 2 years) expanded the status of 80,000 refugees from Honduras who had to flee Hurricane Mitch.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_39_réfugiés_climatiques]]

En-en adult card 40 armed conflicts

2021-04-05T09:39:42Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=40
|version=adult
|title=Armed Conflicts
}}
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]

== Explanation ==
This is the card that is intended to be placed last, as the text suggests.

It can already be said that climate change has been one of the causes of some conflicts, such as in Rwanda or Syria.

In a world that is suffering from all the consequences described in this game, it is hard to imagine that armed conflicts can be avoided.

In 2007, when the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, it was the Nobel Peace Prize. And there are very good reasons for that.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil fuels]] Armed conflicts linked to fossil energies are more a geopolitical consequence than a direct climatic one. But it may still be interesting to mention this relationship.

=== Other consequences ===
[[En-en adult card 1 human activities|Human activities]] It's "the loop of the Club of Rome"! All this will eventually regulate itself, but not necessarily peacefully. The players often make this link and sometimes propose to roll up the Collage to connect the beginning and ending edges. Moreover, it is interesting to notice that there are humans in the beginning and end cards, but not in the middle.

== Frequently Asked Questions ==

=== There is no evidence that it will end in armed conflict ===
Although this card comes as a logical follow-up to all the previous ones, some players may say that there is no evidence that climate change will lead to armed conflict. However, a study condensing 55 others showed that for every degree of temperature increase, there will be an increase of 2.4% in interpersonal conflicts (domestic violence, aggression, murders, ...) and 11.3% in intercultural conflicts (riots, ethnic violence, invasions, civil wars or other forms of political instability)<ref>[https://www.nber.org/papers/w20598.pdf Burke, Miguel, Hsiang ''Climate and conflict'']</ref>.

== Examples of conflicts related to climate change ==

=== Situation in Sudan ===
Numerous interactions between factors (freshwater resources, disruption of the water cycle, armed conflict): in 2007, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon described the conflict in Darfur (Sudan region) as the "first armed conflict linked to climate change". Water scarcity and changes in the rainfall cycle have contributed to fuelling this conflict. ("the world's first climate change conflict.") The conflict in Sudan has been marked by a particularly high number of civilian casualties, particularly through the poisoning of wells<ref>[https://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf UNEP ''Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment'']</ref>.

=== The case of Syria ===
It is also multidimensional here (drought, armed conflict, agricultural yield, fresh water resources, climate refugees): the civil war in Syria has been aggravated by the multiple droughts of the last 5 years. Climate models suggest that the severity of the drought is at least partially caused by climate change<ref>[https://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 National Academy of Sciences of the USA ''Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought'']</ref>.

The decisions of previous governments, corruption, mismanagement of natural resources and drought have destroyed the living conditions of Syrians. Particularly through the issue of access to water, because for several consecutive years between 2006 and 2011, disastrous harvests have affected between 2 and 3 million farmers, endangering the food security of one million people through reduced access to wheat, barley and meat. In addition, Syria itself had already hosted refugees from Iraq in the same period. These events have led to almost 1.5 million Syrians having to leave their country.

=== The case of Mali ===
The situation in Mali is influenced by the links between armed conflict and drought<ref>[https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076815603234 Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine (2015) ''Climate change, conflict and health, Devin C Bowles, Colin D Butler, Neil Moris'']''etti''</ref>.

Mali has been experiencing droughts since the 1960s. At the same time, nomadic Tuaregs have turned into mercenaries to form an alliance with Libyan President Gaddafi.

The particularly severe drought of 2009 was an aggravating factor in the country's high food and economic instability. Three years later, a rebellion led by the Tuaregs broke out. The latter organised a coup d'état against the Malian government, allowing the Jihadists to take power and at the same time leading to the intervention of the French army, notably because of the various links between the Jihadists of the Islamic state and Boko Haram.

=== Analysis of the link between climate change and armed conflict ===
Compiling historical data on sub-Saharan conflicts and variations in rainfall, there has been a substantial increase in armed conflicts during warmer years. For example, a 1% increase in temperature leads to a 4.5% increase in the number of civil wars in the same year<ref>[https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/does-climate-change-cause-conflict United Nations University ''Does Climate Change Cause Conflict?'']</ref>. By 2030, according to the study of average data from the 18 climate models used, this will result in a 54% increase in armed conflicts in the region. A compilation of several studies shows that over the last 100 years global warming has been an aggravating factor in armed conflicts in a range between 3% and 20% of cases<ref>[https://news.stanford.edu/2019/06/12/climate-change-cause-armed-conflict/ Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment ''Stanford-led study investigates how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict'']</ref>.

In a multi-factorial analysis of the causes of armed conflicts to date, under a +2°C scenario, the study estimates that the number of armed conflicts would be twice as high; under a +4°C scenario, it would be 5 times higher<ref>[https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31189956/ Nature ''Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict'']</ref>.

The increase in the frequency of famines is strongly linked to the increase in the frequency of wars<ref>[https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30018-2/fulltext THE LANCET VOLUME 393, ISSUE 10175, P981-982, MARCH 09, 2019 ''Back to the root causes of war: food shortages'']</ref>.

Between 1950 and 2001 it is estimated that civil wars were twice as likely to occur in the years corresponding to El Nino compared to the cooler years of La Nina. El Nino could have contributed to 21% of the conflicts during this period<ref>[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4622275/#sec7-0141076815603234title Journal of the Royal Society of Medecine ''Climate change, conflict and health'']</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_40_conflits_armés]]

En-en adult card 41 permafrost

2021-04-05T09:36:22Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=41
|version=adult
|title=Permafrost
}}
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_21_temperaturet_rise|Temperature Rise]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_9_other_ghgs|Other GHGs]]

== Explanation ==
Permafrost is a soil that is permanently frozen for at least two consecutive years<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=212 Glossary, Report 5, Working Group 1 (French)]</ref>.

The two last cards to be added to the Collage after card 40 are potentially violent [[wikipedia:Climate_change_feedback|feedback]] loops or "climate bombs" which, if triggered, would cause us to lose control over the climate for good.

Thermokarst are veritable bioreactors at the heart of the process of releasing frozen carbon: when the permafrost thaws, pieces of soil detach and fall into the water, bringing nutrients and carbon to the bacteria and plankton present in the sea, which degrade them into CO2 (in the water layers near the surface) and methane or CH4 (in the oxygen-deprived bottom)<ref>[https://lejournal.cnrs.fr/articles/pergelisol-le-piege-climatique CNRS The newspaper Permafrost, the climate trap (French)]</ref>.

== Facilitation advice ==
For online murals, you can show this [https://youtu.be/YegdEOSQotE?t=82 video] from the University of Alaska Fairbanks showing the flammable methane stored in the permafrost.

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 14 energy budget|Energy budget]] If we want to stay within the same logic of energy conservation, the thawing of the permafrost should be linked to the energy budget.

== To go further ==
Climate Action Network France: [https://reseauactionclimat.org/carbone-degel-pergelisol-rechauffement-climatique/ Thawing permafrost carbon will increase global warming], 2018 (French)

RT France documentary: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUIYnuoD8To The mystery of permafrost] (French)

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_41_permafrost]]

En-en adult card 42 methane hydrates

2021-04-05T09:32:53Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=42
|version=adult
|title=Methane Hydrates
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_9_other_ghgs|Other GHGs]]

== Explanation ==
The two last cards to be added to the Collage after card 40 are potentially violent feedback loops or "climate bombs" which, if triggered, would cause us to lose control over the climate for good.

Thermokarst are veritable bioreactors at the heart of the process of releasing frozen carbon: when the permafrost thaws, pieces of soil detach and fall into the water, bringing nutrients and carbon to the bacteria and plankton present in the sea, which degrade them into CO2 (in the water layers near the surface) and methane or CH4 (in the oxygen-deprived bottom).

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 14 energy budget|Energy budget]] If we want to stay within the same logic of energy conservation, the thawing of the permafrost should be linked to the energy budget.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_42_hydrates_de_méthane]]

En-en adult card 42 methane hydrates

2021-04-05T09:29:01Z

Ouahcene:

{{Card
|number=42
|version=adult
|title=Methane Hydrates
}}

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_9_other_ghgs|Other GHGs]]

== Explanation ==
The two last cards to be added to the Collage after card 40 are potentially violent feedback loops or "climate bombs" which, if triggered, would cause us to lose control over the climate for good.

Thermokarst are veritable bioreactors at the heart of the process of releasing frozen carbon: when the permafrost thaws, pieces of soil detach and fall into the water, bringing nutrients and carbon to the bacteria and plankton present in the sea, which degrade them into CO2 (in the water layers near the surface) and methane or CH4 (in the oxygen-deprived bottom).

== Other possible links ==

=== Causes ===
[[En-en adult card 14 energy budget|Energy budget]] If we want to stay within the same logic of energy conservation, the thawing of the permafrost should be linked to the energy budget.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_42_hydrates_de_méthane]]

Link Melting of sea ice Sea level rise

2021-03-07T20:06:36Z

Ouahcene:

== Physical phenomenon ==

<center>
{|
|-
| [[File:See_Level_Rise_Fig1.jpg|thumb|left|Figure 1, gravity pulls the ice cube down]]
| [[File:See_Level_Rise_Fig2.jpg|thumb|center|Figure 2, Archimedes' thrust pushes the ice cube upwards]]
| [[File:See_Level_Rise_Fig3.jpg|thumb|Figure 3, the ice cube has melted and the water level has not risen]]
|}
</center>

When sea ice floats, it is subjected to two forces:

* Gravity, equal to the weight of the ice block (Figure 1) :
* Archimedes' thrust, equal to the weight of the volume of water displaced by the ice block (Figure 2).

Since the ice block is in equilibrium, these two forces compensate each other. The weight of the ice block is therefore equal to the weight of the volume of water displaced. The same weight means the same amount of matter. Therefore, once melted, it will occupy exactly the volume that was below its waterline before it melted. It will therefore not contribute to raising the water level (Figure 3).

This works for large ice blocks in the sea and also for ice cubes in a drink, as long as the ice is floating and is not supported by something solid.

== Limits ==
A seasoned player might point out that this only works if the water in the ice pack and the water in which it floats have the same density. As the pack ice is fresh water and what it floats in is not, there can be a slight change in the water level, but this is very negligible.

== Popularisation ==

=== Trivia ===
This reasoning only works when the ice cubes do not touch the bottom, and in a glass of whisky, they touch the bottom, so one should not translate Ricard by whisky. Either the facilitator can take the opportunity to introduce the players to the important part of French culture that is Ricard, or just discuss ice cubes in a glass of coke.

Link Melting of sea ice Sea level rise

2021-03-07T20:04:53Z

Ouahcene:

== Physical phenomenon ==

<center>
{|
|-
| [[File:See_Level_Rise_Fig1.jpg|thumb|left|Figure 1, gravity pulls the ice cube down ]]
| [[File:See_Level_Rise_Fig2.jpg|thumb|center|Figure 2, Archimedes' thrust pushes the ice cube upwards ]]
| [[File:See_Level_Rise_Fig3.jpg|thumb|Figure 3, the ice cube has melted and the water level has not risen]]
|}
</center>

When sea ice floats, it is subjected to two forces:

* Gravity, equal to the weight of the ice block (Figure 1) :
* Archimedes' thrust, equal to the weight of the volume of water displaced by the ice block (Figure 2).

Since the ice block is in equilibrium, these two forces compensate each other. The weight of the ice block is therefore equal to the weight of the volume of water displaced. The same weight means the same amount of matter. Therefore, once melted, it will occupy exactly the volume that was below its waterline before it melted. It will therefore not contribute to raising the water level (Figure 3).

This works for large ice blocks in the sea and also for ice cubes in a drink, as long as the ice is floating and is not supported by something solid.

== Limits ==
A seasoned player might point out that this only works if the water in the ice pack and the water in which it floats have the same density. As the pack ice is fresh water and what it floats in is not, there can be a slight change in the water level, but this is very negligible.

== Popularisation ==

=== Trivia ===
This reasoning only works when the ice cubes do not touch the bottom, and in a glass of whisky, they touch the bottom, so one should not translate Ricard by whisky. Either the facilitator can take the opportunity to introduce the players to the important part of French culture that is Ricard, or just discuss ice cubes in a glass of coke.