Climate Fresk - User contributions [en]

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2023-04-24T08:17:51Z

Laurent Wargon:

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2023-04-24T08:17:35Z

Laurent Wargon:

<div class="portail-bloc bloc-ligne">
<div></div>
<div>[[Edit_the_wiki|Instructions]]</div>
<div>[[Operating_rules|Rules]]</div>
<div>[[Fresco_climate_knowledge_base:About|About us]]</div>
<div>[[Style_conventions|Conventions]]</div>
<div></div>
</div>

En-en adult card 12 carbon sinks

2023-02-19T20:20:29Z

Laurent Wargon:

==Card #12: Carbon Sinks==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_12_front.png|400px]]

Half of the CO<sub>2</sub> we emit every year is absorbed by carbon sinks:

- ¼ by vegetation via photosynthesis

- ¼ by the oceans

The remaining half stays in the atmosphere.

</center>

==Explanation==
The original IPCC graph represents both CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and carbon sinks. The Climate Fresk has chosen to split it in two to show where CO<sub>2</sub> comes from and where it goes. This is why the two cards are symmetrical: every year, the CO<sub>2</sub> emitted by humankind has to go somewhere. Any CO<sub>2</sub> that is not absorbed by the other carbon sinks remains in the atmosphere.

The text at the back of the card gives approximate absorption rates. The more detailed percentages are:

*27.9% for the ocean
*28.8% for photosynthesis<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5+SummaryVolume+FINAL+FRENCH.pdf Page 51 of IPCC's fifth technical summary report (French)]</ref>.

==Facilitation tips ==
This card is to be mirrored with the [[En-en adult card 7 co2 emissions|CO<sub>2</sub> emissions]] card. To help the players figure this out, we can show them the card and ask "Can you see anything weird about this card?". Very often they notice that the legend is written upside-down. We can then tell them that it is a puzzle to be solved and that the answer is on the table. If the players do not figure it out, they can be given some clues:

*What is the type of representation? A graph
*What type of graph? A "filled" curve
*What is the legend? The same as for CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.
==Correction ==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_7_co2_emissions|CO2 Emissions]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_42_thermohaline_circulation|Thermohaline Circulation]]

===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_11_concentration_of_co2|Concentration of CO2]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_24_ocean_acidification|Ocean Acidification]]

== Other possible links==

===Other causes===
* [[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] Players often think that deforestation reduces carbon sinks. In reality, the impact is minimal because deforested areas represent a very small part of the total forest area. On the other hand, the CO<sub>2</sub> emitted is very important.
*[[En-en adult card 8 agriculture|Agriculture]] It doesn't matter if this link is not made, but it is true that agriculture can improve storage capacity through photosynthesis. This is the 0.4% principle (if we increased the soil's capacity to sequester carbon by even 0.4%, we would have a significant impact on CO<sub>2</sub>).

===Other consequences===
*[[En-en adult card 32 decline agricultural yields|Decline in agricultural yields]] Studies have shown that yields increase with increased CO<sub>2</sub>, but that the nutrient content of vegetables is reduced as a result, because trace elements are not more abundant when yields increase.

==Wrong links==
===Wrong consequences===
*[[En-en adult card 14 energy budget|Energy budget]] The idea here is not to say there is no link between these two cards, but to make sure they are not mixed up. The carbon sinks card tells us where the carbon goes. The energy budget card tells us where the excess energy goes. Both distribute something, but not the same thing. To make it even more confusing, the atmosphere and the ocean are present in both.

==To go further==

===Variation in photosynthesis===
On this card, we can see that in some years photosynthesis drops to 0, and varies greatly from one year to another. The explanation comes from the fact that the residual carbon sink is calculated from the remaining value of the other variables<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf#page=66 Page 66 of IPCC's Fifth report summary - Working group #1 (French)]</ref>. This is why negative values are sometimes found. In this graph, emissions and their distribution only include flows that have varied since 1750, without the natural CO<sub>2</sub> flows, such as CO<sub>2</sub> degassing from lakes, rivers and oceans. However, the IPCC does not clearly explain why such a variation can be read on the graph.

It can be added that the atmospheric concentration has increased sharply in years with an El Niño phenomenon because it makes it difficult for vegetation to absorb carbon<ref>[https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/19/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2019.pdf#page=48 The Global Carbon Project, 2019]</ref>.

===Carbon sinks capacity ===
[https://jancovici.com/changement-climatique/gaz-a-effet-de-serre-et-cycle-du-carbone/les-puits-de-carbone-ne-vont-ils-pas-absorber-le-surplus-de-co2/ Jean-Marc Jancovici’s web site - Won't "carbon sinks" absorb excess CO<sub>2</sub>? (French)]

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_12_puits_de_carbone]]

En-en adult card 14 energy budget

2023-02-19T20:20:22Z

Laurent Wargon:

== Card #14: Energy Budget ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_14_front.png|400px]]

This graph explains where the energy accumulated on Earth due to radiative forcing goes. It warms up the ocean, melts ice, dissipates into the ground and warms up the atmosphere.

</center>

== Explanation ==
On the graph, you can see several colours that represent, from top to bottom:

* In light blue, the upper layer of the ocean, between 0 and 700m
* In dark blue, the lower layer of the ocean, between 700m and 2000m
* In white, the different types of ice
* In orange, the soil
* In purple, the atmosphere.

The dotted lines represent uncertainty.

== Facilitation advice ==

=== Simplified version ===
This card can be removed for the simplified version, at the same time as the [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing|radiative forcing]] and [[En-en adult card 10 aerosols|aerosols]].

=== Full version ===
If you choose to keep this card, you need to remember the first principle of thermodynamics: energy is conserved. Players may draw links from Energy budget to [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]] and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Rising Air Temperatures]], then links from [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]] to [[En-en adult card 16 melting of glaciers|Melting glaciers]] and [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]] to [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting Sea Ice]] and [[En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]. By doing this, they consider that the air and water warm up, and then they melt the pack ice, glaciers and ice caps. But if a calorie has passed through the water and finally contributes to melting the pack ice from below, then it is no longer in the water.

=== Explanation advice ===
A tip to simplify the explanation of this card is to rename the following cards. An increase in temperature is an increase in energy, and melting is also an increase in energy. The five cards then become Increase in the energy level of water, air, sea ice... And the players will understand that these five cards have to be put at the same level. So if a calorie that is in the water contributes to melting the pack ice, once the pack ice has melted, this calorie is no longer in the water. The water has cooled down. In this case, should the calorie be counted in the "ocean" or "melting ice" part? Answer: in the melting part of the ice. You can't count this calorie twice.

== Correction==
===Causes===
*[[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing|Radiative forcing]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_42_thermohaline_circulation|Thermohaline Circulation]]

=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting glaciers]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures|Rising Water Temperatures]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_18_melting_of_sea_ice|Melting Sea Ice]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 41 permafrost|Permafrost]] If we take the idea of energy conservation all the way, we can link the energy budget to the thawing of permafrost.

== To go further ==

=== Figures ===
Oceans cover 71% of the earth's surface, with an average depth of 4 km. If air were reduced to the same density as water, its height would be 10m. The ocean has a very high density, which explains why it absorbs most of the energy related to GHGs emitted by man.

=== Videos ===
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFT5Mx0eK3U&feature=youtu.be Video presentation of the map by Rodolphe Meyer (French)]

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_14_budget_énergétique]]

En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle

2023-02-19T20:20:13Z

Laurent Wargon:

== Card #20: Disruption of the Water Cycle ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_20_front.png|400px]]

Hotter oceans and a hotter atmosphere lead to stronger evaporation, causing rainclouds and rainfall. Hotter land and a hotter atmosphere also lead to
stronger evaporation, this time causing the ground to dry out.

</center>

== Explanation ==
This card is important. It alone shows why we used to talk about global warming and now about climate change.

Temperature increase is in itself a problem, but you can see on the Fresk at the end that disruption of the water cycle has much more effect.

== Facilitation advice ==
To illustrate that evaporation takes place at the surface of the water, place cards [[En-en_adult_card 17_increase_in water_temperature|17]] and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|21]] on the table, place the lower edge of card 21 against the upper edge of card 17, then place card 20 at the boundary of the two, perpendicularly, to mark the surface of the water (between water and air).

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures|Rising Water Temperatures]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_42_thermohaline_circulation|Thermohaline Circulation]]

=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_26_river_flooding|River Flooding]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] Vegetation retains water. When it is cut down, the risk of flooding increases.
*[[En-en adult card 42 weakening gulf stream|Weakening Gulf Stream]]

=== Other consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets|Melting ice sheets]] It's a bit technical, but the blue part of the map of Antarctica on card 19 represents a gain in mass due to an increase of precipitations. The red part represents a loss in mass. In total, Antarctica is losing mass.
* [[En-en adult card 28 vectors of disease|Vectors of disease]] The Vectors of disease card is generally linked to the [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]] card because disease vectors are a sub-part of biodiversity, but it can also be linked to the same causes as the biodiversity card, i.e. Disruption of the Water Cycle and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Rising Air Temperatures]].

== Wrong links==
=== Wrong causes===

* [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting Sea Ice]] The melting of the Arctic ice pack, but also the melting of Greenland's glaciers may lead, in the distant future, to a disruption of the thermohaline circulation (which gives rise to the Gulf Stream). But the "Water Cycle" card does not refer at all to thermohaline circulation.

=== Wrong consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 22 sea level rise|Rising Sea Levels]] No, more rain is not going to cause the oceans to overflow! This is a rare mistake to be made, but if it happens to you, ask the players where rainclouds come from...

== To go further ==

=== El Niño===
[https://www.oce.global/en/resources/videos/clim-el-nino Explanatory video from OCE on El Niño]

===Popularisation===
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqMmRdsK5WM The Mystery of the Expansion of the Tropics (French)]

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_20_perturbation_cycle_eau]]

En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets

2023-02-19T20:19:16Z

Laurent Wargon:

== Card #19: Melting Ice Sheets ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_19_front.png|400px]]

Greenland and Antarctica are ice sheets (or continental glaciers). If they were to completely melt, they will cause the sea level to rise by 7
metres for Greenland and 54 metres for Antarctica. During the last ice age, ice sheets were so much larger that the sea level was 120 metres lower than today.
</center>

== Explanation==
These illustrations represent the gain or loss of mass of the caps, indicated in centimetres of water per year (cm of water/year) and measured gravimetrically. In blue the mass gain (because it snows more) and in red the losses (glaciers flow faster towards the ocean).

== Definition ==
An ice cap (or ice sheet) is a continental-scale mass of land ice, thick enough (between 1,600 and 6 400 m thick<ref>[https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/ice-sheet/ National Geographic Resource Library]</ref>) that covers most of the underlying rock formations. There are currently only two major ice sheets, one in Greenland and one in Antarctica.<ref>[https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_FRENCH.pdf IPCC, 2013: Glossary (Planton, S. (coord.)). P.196. (French)]</ref>

We will speak here of melting of the ice caps when the total mass of ice has decreased over the period under consideration, whatever the processes involved.

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_22_sea_level_rise|Rising Sea Levels]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_42_thermohaline_circulation|Thermohaline Circulation]]

== To go further ==

=== Numbers ===
Between 2006 and 2015, the loss of ice from the ice caps is:

* 278 billion tonnes per year for Greenland
* 155 billion tonnes per year for the Antarctic<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/03_SROCC_SPM_FINAL.pdf#page=6 IPCC, Special report on cryosphere and oceans]</ref>.

For some great graphics that illustrate Earth's ice loss, check out [http://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/CryoSat/Our_world_is_losing_ice_at_record_rate this article from ESA].

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_19_fonte_des_calottes_glaciaires]]

Adult game

2023-02-19T20:17:34Z

Laurent Wargon: /* The cards */

= Description =
Count three hours for the adult game. It contains 42 cards in five batches. The optimal number of players is seven participants because this allows each person to read out at least one card per batch. It takes at least five players for the collective intelligence to work its magic, and it is best not to exceed eight, because the group becomes too big and everyone might not have the opportunity to speak.

See below for facilitation advice from beginning to end and batch by batch.

= The game =

=== The cards ===
{| class="wikitable sortable"
! #
! Name
! Batch
|-
|1
|[[En-en_adult_card_1_human_activities|Human activities]]
|1
|-
|2
|[[En-en_adult_card_2_industry|Industry]]
|2
|-
|3
|[[En-en_adult_card_3_building|Building Usage]]
|2
|-
|4
|[[En-en_adult_card_4_transportation|Transportation]]
|2
|-
|5
|[[En-en_adult_card_5_fossil_fuels|Fossil Fuels]]
|1
|-
|6
|[[En-en_adult_card_6_deforestation|Deforestation]]
|2
|-
|7
|[[En-en_adult_card_7_co2_emissions|{{CO2}} Emissions]]
|1
|-
|8
|[[En-en_adult_card_8_agriculture|Agriculture]]
|2
|-
|9
|[[En-en_adult_card_9_other_ghgs|Other GHGs]]
|2
|-
|10
|[[En-en_adult_card_10_aerosols|Aerosols]]
|3
|-
|11
|[[En-en_adult_card_11_concentration_of_co2|Concentration of {{CO2}}]]
|2
|-
|12
|[[En-en_adult_card_12_carbon_sinks|Carbon sinks]]
|2
|-
|13
|[[En-en_adult_card_13_additional_greenhouse_effect|Additional Greenhouse Effect]]
|1
|-
|14
|[[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
|3
|-
|15
|[[En-en_adult_card_15_radiative_forcing|Radiative Forcing]]
|3
|-
|16
|[[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting Glaciers]]
|3
|-
|17
|[[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures|Rising Water Temperatures]]
|3
|-
|18
|[[En-en_adult_card_18_melting_of_sea_ice|Melting Sea ice]]
|1
|-
|19
|[[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]
|3
|-
|20
|[[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption of the Water Cycle]]
|3
|-
|21
|[[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]
|1
|-
|22
|[[En-en_adult_card_22_sea_level_rise|Rising Sea Levels]]
|1
|-
|23
|[[En-en_adult_card_23_hindered_calcification_process|Calcification Difficulties]]
|4
|-
|24
|[[En-en_adult_card_24_ocean_acidification|Ocean Acidification]]
|2
|-
|25
|[[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
|4
|-
|26
|[[En-en_adult_card_26_river_flooding|River Flooding]]
|4
|-
|27
|[[En-en_adult_card_27_marine_biodiversity|Marine Biodiversity]]
|4
|-
|28
|[[En-en_adult_card_28_vectors_of_disease|Vectors of Disease]]
|5
|-
|29
|[[En-en_adult_card_29_pteropods_and_coccolithophores|Pteropods and Coccolithophores]]
|4
|-
|30
|[[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
|4
|-
|31
|[[En-en_adult_card_31_freshwater_resources|Freshwater Resources]]
|5
|-
|32
|[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline in Agricultural Yields]]
|5
|-
|33
|[[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
|4
|-
|34
|[[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]
|4
|-
|35
|[[En-en_adult_card_35_forest_fires|Forest Fires]]
|5
|-
|36
|[[En-en_adult_card_36_heat_waves|Heatwaves]]
|5
|-
|37
|[[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger|Hunger]]
|5
|-
|38
|[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
|5
|-
|39
|[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
|5
|-
|40
|[[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]
|5
|-
|41
|[[En-en_adult_card_41_permafrost|Permafrost]]
|5
|-
|42
|[[En-en_adult_card_42_thermohaline_circulation|Thermohaline Circulation]]
|5
|-
|}

=== Batches ===

{| class="wikitable"
! #
! Name
|-
|1
|[[En-en adult batch 1|Batch 1]]
|-
|2
|[[En-en adult batch 2|Batch 2]]
|-
|3
|[[En-en adult batch 3|Batch 3]]
|-
|4
|[[En-en adult batch 4|Batch 4]]
|-
|5
|[[En-en adult batch 5|Batch 5]]
|-
|}

= The workshop =

The workshop takes three hours, as follows:
* A few minutes for the [[En-en adult introduction|introduction]]
* Between an hour and an hour and a half for the [[En-en scientific part|scientific part]]
* Thirty minutes for the [[En-en creative part|creative part]]
* Ten minutes for the [[En-en pitch|pitch]]
* And the rest for the [[En-en debrief|debrief]]

[[fr:Jeu_adulte]]

En-en adult card 42 weakening gulf stream

2023-02-19T20:15:59Z

Laurent Wargon: Redirected page to En-en adult card 42 thermohaline circulation

#REDIRECT [[En-en_adult_card_42_thermohaline_circulation]]

En-en adult card 42 thermohaline circulation

2023-02-19T20:14:47Z

Laurent Wargon: Created page with "== Card #42: Thermohaline circulation == <center> 400px The Gulf Stream is part of the ocean's thermohaline circulation. It could weaken in response to freshwater input from Greenland's melting ice sheet. This could disrupt the water cycle even more and reduce the ocean's capacity to absorb more carbon and heat. </center> == Definition== == Correction== ===Causes=== * En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheet..."

== Card #42: Thermohaline circulation ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_42_front.png|400px]]

The Gulf Stream is part of the ocean's thermohaline circulation. It could weaken in response to freshwater input from Greenland's melting ice sheet. This could disrupt the water cycle even more and reduce the ocean's capacity to absorb more carbon and heat.
</center>

== Definition==

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_12_carbon_sinks|Carbon Sinks]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption of the Water Cycle]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===

== To go further ==

=== Observation ===

=== Projections ===
== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_42_ralentissement_du_gulf_stream]]
== Card #42: Weakening Gulf Stream ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_42_front.png|400px]]

The Gulf Stream is part of the ocean's thermohaline circulation. It could weaken in response to freshwater input from Greenland's melting ice sheet. This could disrupt the water cycle even more and reduce the ocean's capacity to absorb more carbon and heat.
</center>

== Definition==

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_12_carbon_sinks|Carbon Sinks]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption of the Water Cycle]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===

== To go further ==

=== Observation ===

=== Projections ===
== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_42_circulation_thermohaline]]

File:En-en adult card 42 front.png

2023-02-19T17:57:58Z

Laurent Wargon: Laurent Wargon uploaded a new version of File:En-en adult card 42 front.png

En-en adult card 39 climate refugees

2023-02-13T17:14:01Z

Laurent Wargon: /* Card #39: Climate Refugees */

== Card #39: Climate Refugees ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_39_front.png|400px]]

The consequences of climate change
will inevitably make some ecosystems
uninhabitable for humans, and will
force people to migrate.

</center>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger|Hunger]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]

=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]

==To go further==

===Africa ===
In 2018, extreme climatic events such as droughts in Afghanistan, cyclone Gita in Samoa, floods in the Philippines led to numerous population displacements. According to the IDMC (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre) it is estimated that there will be more than 20 million climate refugees per year in the decade 2008-2018<ref>[https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries IDM ''Country displacement data'']</ref>.

From 2011 to 2012, cross-border movement of Somalis to Kenya and Ethiopia in a context of drought, food insecurity and starvation, while conflict and violence also prevail in south and central Somalia<ref>[https://www.unhcr.org/5c1ba88d4.pdf United Nations ''International protection in the context of nexus dynamics between conflict or violence and disaster or climate change'']</ref>.

Between 1984 and 1985 the Ethiopian government had to resettle several tens of thousands of people from drought-stricken areas.

===Asia and the Pacific===
Of the 10 countries with the largest share of their displaced population, 7 are Pacific or Caribbean islands.

A European Parliament report estimates that there are 200,000 climate refugees in Bangladesh<ref>[https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/621893/EPRS_BRI(2018)621893_EN.pdf European Parliament ''The concept of 'climate refugee' Towards a possible definition'']</ref>.

Migration and Climate Change reports from the IOM (International Organization for Migration) of the United Nations :

*Cartaret Islands in Papua New Guinea,
*residents of the Lateu village in Vanuatu,
* the movements of the inhabitants of Shishmaref on the Sarichef ise in Alaska
*refugees linked to the flooding of Lohachara Island in the heart of the Hooghly River (a tributary of the Ganges River in India)

Note: for the moment, these four examples remain debatable as to their origins being linked to anthropogenic warming. However, future events are less and less debatable as the effects become more severe.

One in ten inhabitants of Kiribati, Nauru and Tuvalu have had to migrate because of climate change<ref>[https://www.nanseninitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/OR_Human_Mobility_Natural_Disasters_and_Climate_Change_in_the_Pacific.pdf THE NANSEN INITIATIVE ''Human Mobility, Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Pacific, 2013'']</ref>.

=== United States===
In 2003 the US Immigration Service temporarily (for 2 years) expanded the status of 80,000 refugees from Honduras who had to flee Hurricane Mitch.

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_39_réfugiés_climatiques]]

File:En-en adult card 39 front.png

2023-02-13T17:07:40Z

Laurent Wargon: Laurent Wargon uploaded a new version of File:En-en adult card 39 front.png

File:En-en adult card 38 front.png

2023-02-13T17:07:12Z

Laurent Wargon: Laurent Wargon uploaded a new version of File:En-en adult card 38 front.png

File:En-en adult card 37 front.png

2023-02-13T17:06:00Z

Laurent Wargon: Laurent Wargon uploaded a new version of File:En-en adult card 37 front.png

File:En-en adult card 36 front.png

2023-02-13T17:05:16Z

Laurent Wargon: Laurent Wargon uploaded a new version of File:En-en adult card 36 front.png

File:En-en adult card 26 front.png

2023-02-13T17:04:39Z

Laurent Wargon: Laurent Wargon uploaded a new version of File:En-en adult card 26 front.png

Adult game

2021-10-31T08:40:05Z

Laurent Wargon: /* The cards */

= Description =
Count three hours for the adult game. It contains 42 cards in five batches. The optimal number of players is seven participants because this allows each person to read out at least one card per batch. It takes at least five players for the collective intelligence to work its magic, and it is best not to exceed eight, because the group becomes too big and everyone might not have the opportunity to speak.

See below for facilitation advice from beginning to end and batch by batch.

= The game =

=== The cards ===
{| class="wikitable sortable"
! #
! Name
! Batch
|-
|1
|[[En-en_adult_card_1_human_activities|Human activities]]
|1
|-
|2
|[[En-en_adult_card_2_industry|Industry]]
|2
|-
|3
|[[En-en_adult_card_3_building|Building Usage]]
|2
|-
|4
|[[En-en_adult_card_4_transportation|Transportation]]
|2
|-
|5
|[[En-en_adult_card_5_fossil_fuels|Fossil Fuels]]
|1
|-
|6
|[[En-en_adult_card_6_deforestation|Deforestation]]
|2
|-
|7
|[[En-en_adult_card_7_co2_emissions|{{CO2}} Emissions]]
|1
|-
|8
|[[En-en_adult_card_8_agriculture|Agriculture]]
|2
|-
|9
|[[En-en_adult_card_9_other_ghgs|Other GHGs]]
|2
|-
|10
|[[En-en_adult_card_10_aerosols|Aerosols]]
|3
|-
|11
|[[En-en_adult_card_11_concentration_of_co2|Concentration of {{CO2}}]]
|2
|-
|12
|[[En-en_adult_card_12_carbon_sinks|Carbon sinks]]
|2
|-
|13
|[[En-en_adult_card_13_additional_greenhouse_effect|Additional Greenhouse Effect]]
|1
|-
|14
|[[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
|3
|-
|15
|[[En-en_adult_card_15_radiative_forcing|Radiative Forcing]]
|3
|-
|16
|[[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting Glaciers]]
|3
|-
|17
|[[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures|Rising Water Temperatures]]
|3
|-
|18
|[[En-en_adult_card_18_melting_of_sea_ice|Melting Sea ice]]
|1
|-
|19
|[[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]
|3
|-
|20
|[[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption of the Water Cycle]]
|3
|-
|21
|[[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]
|1
|-
|22
|[[En-en_adult_card_22_sea_level_rise|Rising Sea Levels]]
|1
|-
|23
|[[En-en_adult_card_23_hindered_calcification_process|Calcification Difficulties]]
|4
|-
|24
|[[En-en_adult_card_24_ocean_acidification|Ocean Acidification]]
|2
|-
|25
|[[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
|4
|-
|26
|[[En-en_adult_card_26_river_flooding|River Flooding]]
|4
|-
|27
|[[En-en_adult_card_27_marine_biodiversity|Marine Biodiversity]]
|4
|-
|28
|[[En-en_adult_card_28_vectors_of_disease|Vectors of Disease]]
|5
|-
|29
|[[En-en_adult_card_29_pteropods_and_coccolithophores|Pteropods and Coccolithophores]]
|4
|-
|30
|[[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
|4
|-
|31
|[[En-en_adult_card_31_freshwater_resources|Freshwater Resources]]
|5
|-
|32
|[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline in Agricultural Yields]]
|5
|-
|33
|[[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
|4
|-
|34
|[[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]
|4
|-
|35
|[[En-en_adult_card_35_forest_fires|Forest Fires]]
|5
|-
|36
|[[En-en_adult_card_36_heat_waves|Heatwaves]]
|5
|-
|37
|[[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger|Hunger]]
|5
|-
|38
|[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
|5
|-
|39
|[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
|5
|-
|40
|[[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]
|5
|-
|41
|[[En-en_adult_card_41_permafrost|Permafrost]]
|5
|-
|42
|[[En-en_adult_card_42_weakening_gulf_stream|Weakening Gulf Stream]]
|5
|-
|}

=== Batches ===

{| class="wikitable"
! #
! Name
|-
|1
|[[En-en adult batch 1|Batch 1]]
|-
|2
|[[En-en adult batch 2|Batch 2]]
|-
|3
|[[En-en adult batch 3|Batch 3]]
|-
|4
|[[En-en adult batch 4|Batch 4]]
|-
|5
|[[En-en adult batch 5|Batch 5]]
|-
|}

= The workshop =

The workshop takes three hours, as follows:
* A few minutes for the [[En-en adult introduction|introduction]]
* Between an hour and an hour and a half for the [[En-en scientific part|scientific part]]
* Thirty minutes for the [[En-en creative part|creative part]]
* Ten minutes for the [[En-en pitch|pitch]]
* And the rest for the [[En-en debrief|debrief]]

[[fr:Jeu_adulte]]

En-en adult card 14 energy budget

2021-10-31T08:38:26Z

Laurent Wargon: /* Consequences */

== Card #14: Energy Budget ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_14_front.png|400px]]

This graph explains where the energy accumulated on Earth due to radiative forcing goes. It warms up the ocean, melts ice, dissipates into the ground and warms up the atmosphere.

</center>

== Explanation ==
On the graph, you can see several colours that represent, from top to bottom:

* In light blue, the upper layer of the ocean, between 0 and 700m
* In dark blue, the lower layer of the ocean, between 700m and 2000m
* In white, the different types of ice
* In orange, the soil
* In purple, the atmosphere.

The dotted lines represent uncertainty.

== Facilitation advice ==

=== Simplified version ===
This card can be removed for the simplified version, at the same time as the [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing|radiative forcing]] and [[En-en adult card 10 aerosols|aerosols]].

=== Full version ===
If you choose to keep this card, you need to remember the first principle of thermodynamics: energy is conserved. Players may draw links from Energy budget to [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]] and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|TRising Air Temperatures], then links from [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Rising Air Temperatures]] to [[En-en adult card 16 melting of glaciers|Melting glaciers]] and [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]] to [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting Sea Ice]] and [[En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]. By doing this, they consider that the air and water warm up, and then they melt the pack ice, glaciers and ice caps. But if a calorie has passed through the water and finally contributes to melting the pack ice from below, then it is no longer in the water.

=== Explanation advice ===
A tip to simplify the explanation of this card is to rename the following cards. An increase in temperature is an increase in energy, and melting is also an increase in energy. The five cards then become Increase in the energy level of water, air, sea ice... And the players will understand that these five cards have to be put at the same level. So if a calorie that is in the water contributes to melting the pack ice, once the pack ice has melted, this calorie is no longer in the water. The water has cooled down. In this case, should the calorie be counted in the "ocean" or "melting ice" part? Answer: in the melting part of the ice. You can't count this calorie twice.

== Correction==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_15_radiative_forcing|Radiative forcing]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_42_weakening_gulf_stream|Weakening Gulf Stream]]

=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting glaciers]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures|Rising Water Temperatures]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_18_melting_of_sea_ice|Melting Sea Ice]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 41 permafrost|Permafrost]] If we take the idea of energy conservation all the way, we can link the energy budget to the thawing of permafrost.

== To go further ==

=== Figures ===
Oceans cover 71% of the earth's surface, with an average depth of 4 km. If air were reduced to the same density as water, its height would be 10m. The ocean has a very high density, which explains why it absorbs most of the energy related to GHGs emitted by man.

=== Videos ===
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFT5Mx0eK3U&feature=youtu.be Video presentation of the map by Rodolphe Meyer (French)]

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_14_budget_énergétique]]

En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature

2021-10-31T08:37:49Z

Laurent Wargon: Redirected page to En-en adult card 17 Rising Water Temperatures

#REDIRECT [[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures]]

En-en adult card 14 energy budget

2021-10-31T08:34:10Z

Laurent Wargon: /* Consequences */

== Card #14: Energy Budget ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_14_front.png|400px]]

This graph explains where the energy accumulated on Earth due to radiative forcing goes. It warms up the ocean, melts ice, dissipates into the ground and warms up the atmosphere.

</center>

== Explanation ==
On the graph, you can see several colours that represent, from top to bottom:

* In light blue, the upper layer of the ocean, between 0 and 700m
* In dark blue, the lower layer of the ocean, between 700m and 2000m
* In white, the different types of ice
* In orange, the soil
* In purple, the atmosphere.

The dotted lines represent uncertainty.

== Facilitation advice ==

=== Simplified version ===
This card can be removed for the simplified version, at the same time as the [[En-en adult card 15 radiative forcing|radiative forcing]] and [[En-en adult card 10 aerosols|aerosols]].

=== Full version ===
If you choose to keep this card, you need to remember the first principle of thermodynamics: energy is conserved. Players may draw links from Energy budget to [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]] and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|TRising Air Temperatures], then links from [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Rising Air Temperatures]] to [[En-en adult card 16 melting of glaciers|Melting glaciers]] and [[En-en adult card 17 increase in water temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]] to [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting Sea Ice]] and [[En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]. By doing this, they consider that the air and water warm up, and then they melt the pack ice, glaciers and ice caps. But if a calorie has passed through the water and finally contributes to melting the pack ice from below, then it is no longer in the water.

=== Explanation advice ===
A tip to simplify the explanation of this card is to rename the following cards. An increase in temperature is an increase in energy, and melting is also an increase in energy. The five cards then become Increase in the energy level of water, air, sea ice... And the players will understand that these five cards have to be put at the same level. So if a calorie that is in the water contributes to melting the pack ice, once the pack ice has melted, this calorie is no longer in the water. The water has cooled down. In this case, should the calorie be counted in the "ocean" or "melting ice" part? Answer: in the melting part of the ice. You can't count this calorie twice.

== Correction==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_15_radiative_forcing|Radiative forcing]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_42_weakening_gulf_stream|Weakening Gulf Stream]]

=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting glaciers]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_18_melting_of_sea_ice|Melting Sea Ice]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 41 permafrost|Permafrost]] If we take the idea of energy conservation all the way, we can link the energy budget to the thawing of permafrost.

== To go further ==

=== Figures ===
Oceans cover 71% of the earth's surface, with an average depth of 4 km. If air were reduced to the same density as water, its height would be 10m. The ocean has a very high density, which explains why it absorbs most of the energy related to GHGs emitted by man.

=== Videos ===
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFT5Mx0eK3U&feature=youtu.be Video presentation of the map by Rodolphe Meyer (French)]

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_14_budget_énergétique]]

En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle

2021-10-31T08:33:24Z

Laurent Wargon: /* Causes */

== Card #20: Disruption of the Water Cycle ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_20_front.png|400px]]

Hotter oceans and a hotter atmosphere lead to stronger evaporation, causing rainclouds and rainfall. Hotter land and a hotter atmosphere also lead to
stronger evaporation, this time causing the ground to dry out.

</center>

== Explanation ==
This card is important. It alone shows why we used to talk about global warming and now about climate change.

Temperature increase is in itself a problem, but you can see on the Fresk at the end that disruption of the water cycle has much more effect.

== Facilitation advice ==
To illustrate that evaporation takes place at the surface of the water, place cards [[En-en_adult_card 17_increase_in water_temperature|17]] and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|21]] on the table, place the lower edge of card 21 against the upper edge of card 17, then place card 20 at the boundary of the two, perpendicularly, to mark the surface of the water (between water and air).

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures|Rising Water Temperatures]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]
*[[En-en adult card 42 weakening gulf stream|Weakening Gulf Stream]]

=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_26_river_flooding|River Flooding]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 6 deforestation|Deforestation]] Vegetation retains water. When it is cut down, the risk of flooding increases.

=== Other consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 19 melting of ice sheets|Melting ice sheets]] It's a bit technical, but the blue part of the map of Antarctica on card 19 represents a gain in mass due to an increase of precipitations. The red part represents a loss in mass. In total, Antarctica is losing mass.
* [[En-en adult card 28 vectors of disease|Vectors of disease]] The Vectors of disease card is generally linked to the [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]] card because disease vectors are a sub-part of biodiversity, but it can also be linked to the same causes as the biodiversity card, i.e. Disruption of the Water Cycle and [[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Rising Air Temperatures]].

== Wrong links==
=== Wrong causes===

* [[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting Sea Ice]] The melting of the Arctic ice pack, but also the melting of Greenland's glaciers may lead, in the distant future, to a disruption of the thermohaline circulation (which gives rise to the Gulf Stream). But the "Water Cycle" card does not refer at all to thermohaline circulation.

=== Wrong consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 22 sea level rise|Rising Sea Levels]] No, more rain is not going to cause the oceans to overflow! This is a rare mistake to be made, but if it happens to you, ask the players where rainclouds come from...

== To go further ==

=== El Niño===
[https://www.oce.global/en/resources/videos/clim-el-nino Explanatory video from OCE on El Niño]

===Popularisation===
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqMmRdsK5WM The Mystery of the Expansion of the Tropics (French)]

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_20_perturbation_cycle_eau]]

En-en adult card 22 sea level rise

2021-10-31T08:32:19Z

Laurent Wargon: /* Causes */

== Card #22: Rising Sea Levels ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_22_front.png|400px]]

Since 1900, sea levels have risen by 20 cm. This is caused by the thermal expansion of ocean waters and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.

</center>

== Explanation==
It is important to note that the forecasts for the rise in water levels are very conservative. Some phenomena, understood qualitatively but not quantitatively, are simply not quantified in the IPCC report.

This is the case for moulins, for example. Moulins, or glacier mills, are shafts that carry melted water from the surface of a glacier or an ice sheet down to the bedrock. Once the water enters these passages, it lubricates the contact between the bedrock and the ice sheet, making it easier for the glaciers to drift towards the sea.

The figures for sea level rise will therefore most likely be revised upwards in future reports.

For the US, you can use the [https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/ Sea Level Rise Viewer] to show the extent of the phenomenon.

==Correction==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting Glaciers]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures|Rising Water Temperatures]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]

===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]

==Wrong links ==

===Wrong causes===

*[[En-en adult card 18 melting of sea ice|Melting Sea Ice]] is not responsible for the rise of sea levels. More information on the [[Link Melting of sea ice Sea level rise|link explanation page]].

==To go further==

===Key points===

*Water hardly expands. How can ocean warming of a tenth of a degree result in a rise of the water level? The quick answer is that the ocean is 4,000 metres deep on average, so a very slight expansion is enough to make it a few centimetres deeper. A more complete answer is to talk about water's expansion coefficient. It happens to depend on the temperature. Between 0 and 4°C, it is negative, i.e. the water contracts when it warms up. This value of 4°C is precisely the value of the temperature at the bottom of many lakes. This is logical because water that is either colder or warmer is lighter than water at 4°C. It is at 4°C that the water is the densest, so it ends up at the bottom. If we look at the temperature of the ocean, over all latitudes and at all depths, it varies for the most part between 0°C and 10°C, with an average value probably around 4°C. So in theory, around this value, the expansion coefficient is zero. So how much can the ocean expand? In reality, it is in areas where the water temperature is higher that the ocean expands. When the water reaches 20°C, or even much higher temperatures, several tens of metres deep, then there is reason to see water dilation in these areas. We can then imagine how difficult it is to calculate the rise in the water level: to do so, we need to know with great precision the distribution of water temperatures, including at depth, and also to know the temperature rise in certain areas.
*Another important point: the rise in water levels is due both to an increase in its mass (melting of glaciers and ice caps) and to an increase in volume (expansion of water). This increase in water volume is not homogenous: it takes place in areas where water expands, i.e. in warm areas. The water level is not horizontal! Hot water floats in relation to cold water, it's just that we rarely have the opportunity to check it.
*The melting of the cryosphere (ice caps and glaciers) has become the dominant factor in sea level rise<ref>Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Conference in Lyon, 58'51 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73qkhnhbyGI&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73qkhnhbyGI&feature=youtu.be (French)]</ref>.

===Numbers===
About 11% of the world's population lives below 10 metres, and these areas produce 14% of domestic products<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/11_SROCC_CCB9-LLIC_FINAL.pdf#page=2 IPCC, Special report on cryosphere and oceans]</ref>.

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_22_montée_des_eaux]]

En-en adult card 27 marine biodiversity

2021-10-31T08:30:17Z

Laurent Wargon: /* Causes */

== Card #27: Marine Biodiversity ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_27_front.png|400px]]

Pteropods and coccolithophores are at the base of the ocean food chain. If they are driven to extinction, all marine biodiversity will be threatened.
Warming ocean waters also threaten marine biodiversity.

</center>

== Explanation==
For the moment, marine biodiversity is more endangered by overfishing than by climate change or acidification. But in the long term, these two phenomena will considerably increase their pressure. The FAO estimates that between 660 and 820 million people worldwide, about 10% of the world's population, are directly or indirectly dependent on fisheries and aquaculture.
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures|Rising Water Temperatures]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_29_pteropods_and_coccolithophores|Pteropods and Coccolithophores]]

=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger|Hunger]]

== Other possible links ==
=== Other causes ===
* [[En-en adult card 1 human activities|Human activities]] With this link, we can signify all the degradations that humankind is inflicting on marine life, such as plastic pollution and overfishing. This is irrelevant to the subject of climate change, but it is interesting to make the link anyway. If we are talking to an older audience, we can for example mention the size of sardine tins which has decreased because they don't have time to grow before they are fished.
* [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial biodiversity]] The two types of biodiversity can interact with each other.

=== Other consequences ===
* [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial biodiversity]] The two types of biodiversity can interact with each other.

== To go further ==

=== Direct impact of human activities ===
Overfishing is the main cause of the disappearance of fish. Here are some numbers:

* Every year, between 1,000 and 2,700 billion fish are caught<ref>[http://fishcount.org.uk/studydatascreens/2016/fishcount_estimates_list.php ''Fishcount estimates of numbers of individuals killed in (FAO) reported fishery production'', FishCount]</ref>. If humans were killed at the same rate, it would take only 37 hours to exterminate the human population.
* Plastic pollution kills 1.5 million marine animals<ref>[https://conserveturtles.org/information-sea-turtles-threats-marine-debris/ ''Information About Sea Turtles: Threats from Marine Debris'', Sea turtle Conservacy]</ref>, or 0.0001% of all fishing-related deaths.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_27_biodiversité_marine]]

En-en adult card 34 cyclones

2021-10-31T08:29:36Z

Laurent Wargon: /* Causes */

== Card #34: Cyclones ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_34_front.png|400px]]

Cyclones draw their energy from warm water at the surface of the ocean. They are getting stronger because of global warming.

</center>

== Definition==
A cyclone is a whirlwind phenomenon in tropical regions (between 30°N and 30°S) accompanied by winds with speeds of 64 knots (118 km/h, or force 12 on the Beaufort scale) or more<ref>[http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/23659318-ouragan-cyclone-ou-typhon Météo France Definition (French)]</ref>.

The terms typhoon, hurricane and tropical cyclone all refer to the same phenomenon, the designation adopted simply depends on where in the world it occurs. The terms cyclone or tropical cyclone are reserved for the Indian Ocean and the South Pacific. The term hurricane, on the other hand, is used in the Northern Atlantic and North-East Pacific, and typhoon in the North-West Pacific.

== Explanation ==
There are not more cyclones because of climate change (at least we are not yet able to establish this statistically), but they are more violent.

For the upstream card, we can choose either the disruption of the water cycle, in the sense that the increase in cyclone power is an illustration of the disruption of the water cycle, or the increase in water temperature, because cyclones feed on the energy of warm water from intertropical areas. It makes less sense to have both.

==Correction==
=== Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_17_Rising_Water_Temperatures|Rising Water Temperatures]]

===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]] Sunday, August 2, 2020, Florida is preparing for the passage of Isaias, the hurricane that dumped torrential rains on the Bahamas the day before. It could regain strength and test the emergency services of one of the states most affected by the Covid-19 epidemic in the United States. It has more than 480,000 cases detected since the start of the pandemic, surpassing New York, long the epicentre of the American epidemic in the spring, and second only to California, which has twice the population. Due to the weather, the state has had to close Covid-19 testing centres, many of which were set up in tents, in anticipation of the hurricane's arrival, although county testing centres remain open<ref>[https://www.ouest-france.fr/monde/etats-unis/covid-19-et-ouragan-isaias-les-deux-combats-de-la-floride-6925734 Ouest France Newspaper, Covid 19 and Hurricane Isaias the two battles of Florida (French)]</ref>.

== To go further ==

=== Occurrences of this phenomenon ===

==== United States ====
In September 2017, after the destruction from Hurricane Harvey in Texas in August, Hurricane Irma devastated the islands of St. Martin and St. Bartholomew's and Maria the island of Dominica.

A year later in 2018, in the Northern Atlantic, Hurricanes Helen, Isaac, Joyce and Florence moved simultaneously, the latter causing nearly 30 deaths in North Carolina.

On March 3, 2020, 19 people died in Tennessee because of a tornado that destroyed roads, bridges, businesses and buildings that will have to be rebuilt.

==== Asia ====
On 19 March 2020, a strong storm in the south of Mersin in Turkey destroyed tens of thousands of almond trees.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_34_cyclones]]

En-en adult card 17 Rising Water Temperatures

2021-10-31T08:28:03Z

Laurent Wargon: Created page with "== Card #17: Rising Water Temperatures == <center> 400px Oceans absorb 91% of the energy accumulated on Earth. The water temperature h..."

== Card #17: Rising Water Temperatures ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_17_front.png|400px]]

Oceans absorb 91% of the energy accumulated on Earth. The water temperature has therefore increased, especially close to the surface. Water expands as it warms.

</center>

== Explanation==
The ocean is warming by only about a tenth of a degree at the surface and even less under water. Why so little when it absorbs 93% of the excess energy on Earth? This is because it is much larger than the atmosphere and it has a much greater calorific capacity.

To measure this, you need to remember that the ocean covers 71% of the Earth's surface and that it has a depth of 4000 m on average. The atmosphere extends over a greater height, but if brought it back to the same density as water, it would only be 10 m thick. (That's why we gain one atmosphere of pressure every 10 m when we dive.)

The water expands very little. How can warming the ocean by a tenth of a degree result in a rise in the water level? A first answer is that the ocean is 4000 m deep on average, so a very small expansion is enough to amount to a few centimetres.

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption of the Water Cycle]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_22_sea_level_rise|Rising Sea Levels]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_27_marine_biodiversity|Marine Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]

==Wrong links==
===Wrong consequences===
*[[En-en adult card 24 ocean acidification|Ocean acidification]] The increase of water temperature is not linked to ocean acidification, at least for the time being. In the long term (over several centuries), as it heats up, the water will lose its capacity to dissolve atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and will become less efficient as a carbon sink. So the increase in water temperature will inhibit, to some extent, ocean acidification.

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_17_hausse_température_eau]]

En-en adult card 37 starvation

2021-10-31T08:17:13Z

Laurent Wargon: Redirected page to En-en adult card 37 hunger

#REDIRECT [[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger]]

Adult game

2021-10-31T08:16:36Z

Laurent Wargon:

= Description =
Count three hours for the adult game. It contains 42 cards in five batches. The optimal number of players is seven participants because this allows each person to read out at least one card per batch. It takes at least five players for the collective intelligence to work its magic, and it is best not to exceed eight, because the group becomes too big and everyone might not have the opportunity to speak.

See below for facilitation advice from beginning to end and batch by batch.

= The game =

=== The cards ===
{| class="wikitable sortable"
! #
! Name
! Batch
|-
|1
|[[En-en_adult_card_1_human_activities|Human activities]]
|1
|-
|2
|[[En-en_adult_card_2_industry|Industry]]
|2
|-
|3
|[[En-en_adult_card_3_building|Building Usage]]
|2
|-
|4
|[[En-en_adult_card_4_transportation|Transportation]]
|2
|-
|5
|[[En-en_adult_card_5_fossil_fuels|Fossil Fuels]]
|1
|-
|6
|[[En-en_adult_card_6_deforestation|Deforestation]]
|2
|-
|7
|[[En-en_adult_card_7_co2_emissions|{{CO2}} Emissions]]
|1
|-
|8
|[[En-en_adult_card_8_agriculture|Agriculture]]
|2
|-
|9
|[[En-en_adult_card_9_other_ghgs|Other GHGs]]
|2
|-
|10
|[[En-en_adult_card_10_aerosols|Aerosols]]
|3
|-
|11
|[[En-en_adult_card_11_concentration_of_co2|Concentration of {{CO2}}]]
|2
|-
|12
|[[En-en_adult_card_12_carbon_sinks|Carbon sinks]]
|2
|-
|13
|[[En-en_adult_card_13_additional_greenhouse_effect|Additional Greenhouse Effect]]
|1
|-
|14
|[[En-en_adult_card_14_energy_budget|Energy Budget]]
|3
|-
|15
|[[En-en_adult_card_15_radiative_forcing|Radiative Forcing]]
|3
|-
|16
|[[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting Glaciers]]
|3
|-
|17
|[[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Rising Water Temperatures]]
|3
|-
|18
|[[En-en_adult_card_18_melting_of_sea_ice|Melting Sea ice]]
|1
|-
|19
|[[En-en_adult_card_19_melting_of_ice_sheets|Melting Ice Sheets]]
|3
|-
|20
|[[En-en_adult_card_20_disruption_water_cycle|Disruption of the Water Cycle]]
|3
|-
|21
|[[En-en_adult_card_21_temperature_rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]
|1
|-
|22
|[[En-en_adult_card_22_sea_level_rise|Rising Sea Levels]]
|1
|-
|23
|[[En-en_adult_card_23_hindered_calcification_process|Calcification Difficulties]]
|4
|-
|24
|[[En-en_adult_card_24_ocean_acidification|Ocean Acidification]]
|2
|-
|25
|[[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
|4
|-
|26
|[[En-en_adult_card_26_river_flooding|River Flooding]]
|4
|-
|27
|[[En-en_adult_card_27_marine_biodiversity|Marine Biodiversity]]
|4
|-
|28
|[[En-en_adult_card_28_vectors_of_disease|Vectors of Disease]]
|5
|-
|29
|[[En-en_adult_card_29_pteropods_and_coccolithophores|Pteropods and Coccolithophores]]
|4
|-
|30
|[[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
|4
|-
|31
|[[En-en_adult_card_31_freshwater_resources|Freshwater Resources]]
|5
|-
|32
|[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline in Agricultural Yields]]
|5
|-
|33
|[[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
|4
|-
|34
|[[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]
|4
|-
|35
|[[En-en_adult_card_35_forest_fires|Forest Fires]]
|5
|-
|36
|[[En-en_adult_card_36_heat_waves|Heatwaves]]
|5
|-
|37
|[[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger|Hunger]]
|5
|-
|38
|[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
|5
|-
|39
|[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
|5
|-
|40
|[[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]
|5
|-
|41
|[[En-en_adult_card_41_permafrost|Permafrost]]
|5
|-
|42
|[[En-en_adult_card_42_weakening_gulf_stream|Weakening Gulf Stream]]
|5
|-
|}

=== Batches ===

{| class="wikitable"
! #
! Name
|-
|1
|[[En-en adult batch 1|Batch 1]]
|-
|2
|[[En-en adult batch 2|Batch 2]]
|-
|3
|[[En-en adult batch 3|Batch 3]]
|-
|4
|[[En-en adult batch 4|Batch 4]]
|-
|5
|[[En-en adult batch 5|Batch 5]]
|-
|}

= The workshop =

The workshop takes three hours, as follows:
* A few minutes for the [[En-en adult introduction|introduction]]
* Between an hour and an hour and a half for the [[En-en scientific part|scientific part]]
* Thirty minutes for the [[En-en creative part|creative part]]
* Ten minutes for the [[En-en pitch|pitch]]
* And the rest for the [[En-en debrief|debrief]]

[[fr:Jeu_adulte]]

En-en adult card 37 famines

2021-10-31T08:15:42Z

Laurent Wargon: Changed redirect target from En-en adult card 37 starvation to En-en adult card 37 hunger

#REDIRECT [[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger]]

En-en adult card 31 freshwater resources

2021-10-31T08:13:18Z

Laurent Wargon: /* Other consequences */

== Card #31: Freshwater Resources ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_31_front.png|400px]]

Freshwater resources are affected by changes in rainfall and by the melting of glaciers that regulate the flow of rivers.

</center>

== Explanation ==
The biggest issue here is the disappearance of the glaciers. They serve as reservoirs of fresh water in solid form and melt to supply downstream irrigation for crops.
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_16_melting_of_glaciers|Melting of glaciers]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 33 marine submersion|Marine Submersion]] If sea water rises, it can penetrate the water tables, which are freshwater reserves.

=== Other consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 37 hunger|Hunger]] If we consider that hunger and famines are not only a lack of food but also a lack of water.
* [[En-en adult card 38 human health|Human health]] A lack of drinking water will have impacts on human health.

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_31_ressources_eau_douce]]

En-en adult card 39 climate refugees

2021-10-31T08:12:44Z

Laurent Wargon: /* Causes */

== Card #39: Climate Refugees ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_39_front.png|400px]]

Imagine that you live in a place that has been miraculously spared from climate change. Several billion people may wish to share this space with you.

</center>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger|Hunger]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]

=== Consequences ===
* [[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]

== Other possible causes ==
=== Other consequences===
*[[En-en adult card 38 human health|Human health]]

==To go further==

===Africa ===
In 2018, extreme climatic events such as droughts in Afghanistan, cyclone Gita in Samoa, floods in the Philippines led to numerous population displacements. According to the IDMC (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre) it is estimated that there will be more than 20 million climate refugees per year in the decade 2008-2018<ref>[https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries IDM ''Country displacement data'']</ref>.

From 2011 to 2012, cross-border movement of Somalis to Kenya and Ethiopia in a context of drought, food insecurity and starvation, while conflict and violence also prevail in south and central Somalia<ref>[https://www.unhcr.org/5c1ba88d4.pdf United Nations ''International protection in the context of nexus dynamics between conflict or violence and disaster or climate change'']</ref>.

Between 1984 and 1985 the Ethiopian government had to resettle several tens of thousands of people from drought-stricken areas.

===Asia and the Pacific===
Of the 10 countries with the largest share of their displaced population, 7 are Pacific or Caribbean islands.

A European Parliament report estimates that there are 200,000 climate refugees in Bangladesh<ref>[https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/621893/EPRS_BRI(2018)621893_EN.pdf European Parliament ''The concept of 'climate refugee' Towards a possible definition'']</ref>.

Migration and Climate Change reports from the IOM (International Organization for Migration) of the United Nations :

*Cartaret Islands in Papua New Guinea,
*residents of the Lateu village in Vanuatu,
* the movements of the inhabitants of Shishmaref on the Sarichef ise in Alaska
*refugees linked to the flooding of Lohachara Island in the heart of the Hooghly River (a tributary of the Ganges River in India)

Note: for the moment, these four examples remain debatable as to their origins being linked to anthropogenic warming. However, future events are less and less debatable as the effects become more severe.

One in ten inhabitants of Kiribati, Nauru and Tuvalu have had to migrate because of climate change<ref>[https://www.nanseninitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/OR_Human_Mobility_Natural_Disasters_and_Climate_Change_in_the_Pacific.pdf THE NANSEN INITIATIVE ''Human Mobility, Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Pacific, 2013'']</ref>.

=== United States===
In 2003 the US Immigration Service temporarily (for 2 years) expanded the status of 80,000 refugees from Honduras who had to flee Hurricane Mitch.

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_39_réfugiés_climatiques]]

En-en adult card 38 human health

2021-10-31T08:12:23Z

Laurent Wargon: /* Causes */

== Card #38: Human Health ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_38_front.png|400px]]

Hunger, new vectors of disease, heatwaves and armed conflicts can have a negative effect on human health.

</center>

== Explanation==
This is one of the cards to be placed last, as one of the ultimate consequences of climate change.

==Correction==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_28_vectors_of_disease|Vectors of Disease]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_31_freshwater_resources|Freshwater Resources]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger|Hunger]]

=== Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_40_armed_conflicts|Armed Conflicts]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===
[[En-en adult card 36 heat waves|Heat waves]] Heat waves can be devastating, especially for older people and in places where air conditioning is not available.

== To go further ==
The Sámi are an indigenous people from an area covering northern Sweden, Norway and Finland as well as the Kola Peninsula in Russia known as Lapland. The livelihoods of the Sámi are endangered by global warming<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

The same applies to the livelihood conditions of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic Circle in Canada and Russia<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

Increase in water-borne diseases (cholera, malaria, dengue fever, diarrhoea, hepatitis (hepatitis A and E), typhoid, some meningitis in Israel, etc.).

Increasing vulnerability to the survival of Aymara farmers in Bolivia due to the lack of freshwater resources caused by global warming<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, major contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_38_santé_humaine]]

En-en adult card 32 decline agricultural yields

2021-10-31T08:11:31Z

Laurent Wargon:

== Card #32: Decline in Agricultural Yields ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_32_front.png|400px]]

Food production can be affected by temperature, droughts, extreme weather events, floods and marine submersion (e.g. the Nile Delta).

</center>

== Explanation==
This is one of the greatest threats to humanity. Declines in agricultural yields have already led to conflicts in Rwanda and Syria.

==Facilitation advice==
===Local or global impacts===
It may be interesting to differentiate between local and global causes. Local causes are:

*[[En-en adult card 26 river flooding|River Flooding]]
*[[En-en adult card 30 droughts|Droughts]]
*[[En-en adult card 33 marine submersion|Marine Submersion]]
*[[En-en adult card 34 cyclones|Cyclones]]
*[[En-en adult card 35 forest fires|Forest Fires]]

More global causes are:

*[[En-en adult card 20 disruption water cycle|Disruption of the water cycle]]
*[[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]
*[[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial biodiversity]]
*[[En-en adult card 31 freshwater resources|Freshwater resources]]

==Correction==
===Causes===
*[[En-en adult card 21 temperature rise|Rising Air Temperatures]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_25_terrestrial_biodiversity|Terrestrial Biodiversity]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_26_river_flooding|River Flooding]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_30_droughts|Droughts]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_31_freshwater_resources|Freshwater Resources]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_33_marine_submersion|Marine Submersion]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_34_cyclones|Cyclones]]
===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger|Hunger]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 12 carbon sinks|Carbon sinks]] Studies have shown that yields increase with increased CO<sub>2</sub>, but that the nutrient content of vegetables is reduced. Indeed, trace elements do not become more abundant when yields increase.

== Wrong links ==
=== Wrong consequences ===
*[[En-en adult card 8 agriculture|Agriculture]] Yes, the yield decline does affect agriculture, but the agriculture card is here to stand for one of the causes of GHG emissions.

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_32_baisse_rendements_agricoles]]

En-en adult card 27 marine biodiversity

2021-10-31T08:10:39Z

Laurent Wargon:

== Card #27: Marine Biodiversity ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_27_front.png|400px]]

Pteropods and coccolithophores are at the base of the ocean food chain. If they are driven to extinction, all marine biodiversity will be threatened.
Warming ocean waters also threaten marine biodiversity.

</center>

== Explanation==
For the moment, marine biodiversity is more endangered by overfishing than by climate change or acidification. But in the long term, these two phenomena will considerably increase their pressure. The FAO estimates that between 660 and 820 million people worldwide, about 10% of the world's population, are directly or indirectly dependent on fisheries and aquaculture.
== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_17_increase_in_water_temperature|Increase in Water Temperature]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_29_pteropods_and_coccolithophores|Pteropods and Coccolithophores]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_37_hunger|Hunger]]

== Other possible links ==
=== Other causes ===
* [[En-en adult card 1 human activities|Human activities]] With this link, we can signify all the degradations that humankind is inflicting on marine life, such as plastic pollution and overfishing. This is irrelevant to the subject of climate change, but it is interesting to make the link anyway. If we are talking to an older audience, we can for example mention the size of sardine tins which has decreased because they don't have time to grow before they are fished.
* [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial biodiversity]] The two types of biodiversity can interact with each other.

=== Other consequences ===
* [[En-en adult card 25 terrestrial biodiversity|Terrestrial biodiversity]] The two types of biodiversity can interact with each other.

== To go further ==

=== Direct impact of human activities ===
Overfishing is the main cause of the disappearance of fish. Here are some numbers:

* Every year, between 1,000 and 2,700 billion fish are caught<ref>[http://fishcount.org.uk/studydatascreens/2016/fishcount_estimates_list.php ''Fishcount estimates of numbers of individuals killed in (FAO) reported fishery production'', FishCount]</ref>. If humans were killed at the same rate, it would take only 37 hours to exterminate the human population.
* Plastic pollution kills 1.5 million marine animals<ref>[https://conserveturtles.org/information-sea-turtles-threats-marine-debris/ ''Information About Sea Turtles: Threats from Marine Debris'', Sea turtle Conservacy]</ref>, or 0.0001% of all fishing-related deaths.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_27_biodiversité_marine]]

En-en adult card 37 hunger

2021-10-31T08:09:35Z

Laurent Wargon: Created page with "== Card #37: Hunger == <center> 400px Hunger can be caused by lower agricultural yields and by the loss of marine biodiversity. </cen..."

== Card #37: Hunger ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_37_front.png|400px]]

Hunger can be caused by lower agricultural yields and by the loss of marine biodiversity.

</center>

== Correction==
===Causes===
* [[En-en_adult_card_27_marine_biodiversity|Marine Biodiversity]]
* [[En-en_adult_card_32_decline_agricultural_yields|Decline Agricultural Yields]]
=== Consequences ===
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]

== Other possible links ==

=== Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 31 freshwater resources|Freshwater resources]] if we consider that hunger and famines are not only a lack of food but also a lack of water.

=== Other consequences ===

* [[En-en adult card 40 armed conflicts|Armed conflicts]]

== To go further ==
12<sup>th</sup> March 2020: The Food and Agriculture Organization warns of a new locust invasion in Kenya in Somalia and Ethiopia (terrestrial biodiversity) that poses an unprecedented threat to food security (lower agricultural yields)<ref>[https://news.un.org/fr/story/2020/02/1061441 United Nations Horn of Africa: Worst locust invasion in decades (FAO) (French)]</ref>.

Decrease in the quantity of fruit trees in the Sahel<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, Food security in the Sahel (French)]</ref>.

Crop yields in South Asia declining despite technological improvements<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf AR5 WG2 IPCC, ''medium confidence, minor contribution from climate change'']</ref>.

== References ==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_37_famine]]

En-en adult card 40 armed conflicts

2021-10-26T20:14:35Z

Laurent Wargon:

== Card #40: Armed Conflicts ==
<center>

[[File:En-en_adult_card_40_front.png|400px]]

We shouldn’t let it come to this...

</center>

==Explanation==
This card is intended to be placed last, as the text suggests.

It can already be said that climate change has been one of the causes of some conflicts, such as in Rwanda or Syria.

In a world that is suffering from all the consequences described in the game, it is hard to imagine that armed conflicts can be avoided.

In 2007, when the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Prize, it was the Nobel Peace Prize. And there are very good reasons for that.

==Other possible links==
==Correction ==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
==Other possible links==
===Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil fuels]] Armed conflicts linked to fossil energies are more a geopolitical consequence than a direct climatic one. But it may still be interesting to mention this relationship.

===Other consequences===

* [[En-en adult card 1 human activities|Human activities]] It's the final loop of the Club of Rome. All this will eventually regulate itself, but not necessarily peacefully. The players often make this link and sometimes propose to roll up the Fresk to connect the beginning and ending edges. Moreover, it is noteworthy that humankind appears in the first and last cards, but not in the middle of the Fresk.
* [[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil Fuels]] Conflicts are often linked to fossil fuels, but the link is more the other way round.

==Examples of conflicts related to climate change==

''"Is there evidence that it will end in armed conflict?"'' Although this card comes as a logical follow-up to all the previous ones, some players may say that there is no evidence that climate change will lead to armed conflict. However, a study condensing 55 others showed that for every degree of temperature increase, there will be an increase of 2.4% in interpersonal conflicts (domestic violence, aggression, murders...) and 11.3% in intercultural conflicts (riots, ethnic violence, invasions, civil wars or other forms of political instability)<ref>[https://www.nber.org/papers/w20598.pdf Burke, Miguel, Hsiang ''Climate and conflict'']</ref>.

===Situation in Sudan===
Numerous interactions between factors (freshwater resources, disruption of the water cycle, armed conflict): in 2007, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon described the conflict in Darfur (Sudan region) as the "first armed conflict linked to climate change". Water scarcity and changes in the rainfall cycle have contributed to fuelling this conflict. ("the world's first climate change conflict.") The conflict in Sudan has been marked by a particularly high number of civilian casualties, particularly through the poisoning of wells<ref>[https://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf UNEP ''Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment'']</ref>.

===Syria===
It is also multidimensional here (drought, armed conflict, agricultural yield, fresh water resources, climate refugees): the civil war in Syria has been aggravated by the multiple droughts of the last 5 years. Climate models suggest that the severity of the drought is at least partially caused by climate change<ref>[https://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 National Academy of Sciences of the USA ''Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought'']</ref>.

The decisions of previous governments, corruption, mismanagement of natural resources and drought have destroyed the living conditions of Syrians. Particularly through the issue of access to water, because for several consecutive years between 2006 and 2011, disastrous harvests have affected between 2 and 3 million farmers, endangering the food security of one million people through reduced access to wheat, barley and meat. In addition, Syria itself had already hosted refugees from Iraq in the same period. These events have led to almost 1.5 million Syrians having to leave their country.

=== Mali===
The situation in Mali is influenced by the links between armed conflict and drought<ref>[https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076815603234 Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine (2015) ''Climate change, conflict and health, Devin C Bowles, Colin D Butler, Neil Moris'']''etti''</ref>.

Mali has been experiencing droughts since the 1960s. At the same time, nomadic Tuaregs have turned into mercenaries to form an alliance with Libyan President Gaddafi.

The particularly severe drought of 2009 was an aggravating factor in the country's high food and economic instability. Three years later, a rebellion led by the Tuaregs broke out. The latter organised a coup d'état against the Malian government, allowing the Jihadists to take power and at the same time leading to the intervention of the French army, notably because of the various links between the Jihadists of the Islamic state and Boko Haram.

===Analysis of the link between climate change and armed conflict===
Compiling historical data on sub-Saharan conflicts and variations in rainfall, there has been a substantial increase in armed conflicts during warmer years. For example, a 1% increase in temperature leads to a 4.5% increase in the number of civil wars in the same year<ref>[https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/does-climate-change-cause-conflict United Nations University ''Does Climate Change Cause Conflict?'']</ref>. By 2030, according to the study of average data from the 18 climate models used, this will result in a 54% increase in armed conflicts in the region. A compilation of several studies shows that over the last 100 years global warming has been an aggravating factor in armed conflicts in a range between 3% and 20% of cases<ref>[https://news.stanford.edu/2019/06/12/climate-change-cause-armed-conflict/ Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment ''Stanford-led study investigates how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict'']</ref>.

In a multi-factorial analysis of the causes of armed conflicts to date, under a +2°C scenario, the study estimates that the number of armed conflicts would be twice as high; under a +4°C scenario, it would be 5 times higher<ref>[https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31189956/ Nature ''Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict'']</ref>.

The increase in the frequency of famines is strongly linked to the increase in the frequency of wars<ref>[https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30018-2/fulltext THE LANCET VOLUME 393, ISSUE 10175, P981-982, MARCH 09, 2019 ''Back to the root causes of war: food shortages'']</ref>.

Between 1950 and 2001 it is estimated that civil wars were twice as likely to occur in the years corresponding to El Nino compared to the cooler years of La Nina. El Nino could have contributed to 21% of the conflicts during this period<ref>[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4622275/#sec7-0141076815603234title Journal of the Royal Society of Medecine ''Climate change, conflict and health'']</ref>.

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_40_conflits_armés]]

En-en adult card 40 armed conflicts

2021-10-26T20:12:47Z

Laurent Wargon:

== Card #40: Armed Conflicts ==
<center>

[[Fichier:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_40_recto.png|400px]]

We shouldn’t let it come to this...

</center>

==Explanation==
This card is intended to be placed last, as the text suggests.

It can already be said that climate change has been one of the causes of some conflicts, such as in Rwanda or Syria.

In a world that is suffering from all the consequences described in the game, it is hard to imagine that armed conflicts can be avoided.

In 2007, when the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Prize, it was the Nobel Peace Prize. And there are very good reasons for that.

==Other possible links==
==Correction ==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
==Other possible links==
===Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil fuels]] Armed conflicts linked to fossil energies are more a geopolitical consequence than a direct climatic one. But it may still be interesting to mention this relationship.

===Other consequences===

* [[En-en adult card 1 human activities|Human activities]] It's the final loop of the Club of Rome. All this will eventually regulate itself, but not necessarily peacefully. The players often make this link and sometimes propose to roll up the Fresk to connect the beginning and ending edges. Moreover, it is noteworthy that humankind appears in the first and last cards, but not in the middle of the Fresk.
* [[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil Fuels]] Conflicts are often linked to fossil fuels, but the link is more the other way round.

==Examples of conflicts related to climate change==

''"Is there evidence that it will end in armed conflict?"'' Although this card comes as a logical follow-up to all the previous ones, some players may say that there is no evidence that climate change will lead to armed conflict. However, a study condensing 55 others showed that for every degree of temperature increase, there will be an increase of 2.4% in interpersonal conflicts (domestic violence, aggression, murders...) and 11.3% in intercultural conflicts (riots, ethnic violence, invasions, civil wars or other forms of political instability)<ref>[https://www.nber.org/papers/w20598.pdf Burke, Miguel, Hsiang ''Climate and conflict'']</ref>.

===Situation in Sudan===
Numerous interactions between factors (freshwater resources, disruption of the water cycle, armed conflict): in 2007, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon described the conflict in Darfur (Sudan region) as the "first armed conflict linked to climate change". Water scarcity and changes in the rainfall cycle have contributed to fuelling this conflict. ("the world's first climate change conflict.") The conflict in Sudan has been marked by a particularly high number of civilian casualties, particularly through the poisoning of wells<ref>[https://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf UNEP ''Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment'']</ref>.

===Syria===
It is also multidimensional here (drought, armed conflict, agricultural yield, fresh water resources, climate refugees): the civil war in Syria has been aggravated by the multiple droughts of the last 5 years. Climate models suggest that the severity of the drought is at least partially caused by climate change<ref>[https://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 National Academy of Sciences of the USA ''Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought'']</ref>.

The decisions of previous governments, corruption, mismanagement of natural resources and drought have destroyed the living conditions of Syrians. Particularly through the issue of access to water, because for several consecutive years between 2006 and 2011, disastrous harvests have affected between 2 and 3 million farmers, endangering the food security of one million people through reduced access to wheat, barley and meat. In addition, Syria itself had already hosted refugees from Iraq in the same period. These events have led to almost 1.5 million Syrians having to leave their country.

=== Mali===
The situation in Mali is influenced by the links between armed conflict and drought<ref>[https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076815603234 Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine (2015) ''Climate change, conflict and health, Devin C Bowles, Colin D Butler, Neil Moris'']''etti''</ref>.

Mali has been experiencing droughts since the 1960s. At the same time, nomadic Tuaregs have turned into mercenaries to form an alliance with Libyan President Gaddafi.

The particularly severe drought of 2009 was an aggravating factor in the country's high food and economic instability. Three years later, a rebellion led by the Tuaregs broke out. The latter organised a coup d'état against the Malian government, allowing the Jihadists to take power and at the same time leading to the intervention of the French army, notably because of the various links between the Jihadists of the Islamic state and Boko Haram.

===Analysis of the link between climate change and armed conflict===
Compiling historical data on sub-Saharan conflicts and variations in rainfall, there has been a substantial increase in armed conflicts during warmer years. For example, a 1% increase in temperature leads to a 4.5% increase in the number of civil wars in the same year<ref>[https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/does-climate-change-cause-conflict United Nations University ''Does Climate Change Cause Conflict?'']</ref>. By 2030, according to the study of average data from the 18 climate models used, this will result in a 54% increase in armed conflicts in the region. A compilation of several studies shows that over the last 100 years global warming has been an aggravating factor in armed conflicts in a range between 3% and 20% of cases<ref>[https://news.stanford.edu/2019/06/12/climate-change-cause-armed-conflict/ Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment ''Stanford-led study investigates how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict'']</ref>.

In a multi-factorial analysis of the causes of armed conflicts to date, under a +2°C scenario, the study estimates that the number of armed conflicts would be twice as high; under a +4°C scenario, it would be 5 times higher<ref>[https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31189956/ Nature ''Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict'']</ref>.

The increase in the frequency of famines is strongly linked to the increase in the frequency of wars<ref>[https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30018-2/fulltext THE LANCET VOLUME 393, ISSUE 10175, P981-982, MARCH 09, 2019 ''Back to the root causes of war: food shortages'']</ref>.

Between 1950 and 2001 it is estimated that civil wars were twice as likely to occur in the years corresponding to El Nino compared to the cooler years of La Nina. El Nino could have contributed to 21% of the conflicts during this period<ref>[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4622275/#sec7-0141076815603234title Journal of the Royal Society of Medecine ''Climate change, conflict and health'']</ref>.

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_40_conflits_armés]]

En-en adult card 40 armed conflicts

2021-10-26T20:10:37Z

Laurent Wargon:

{{Card
|number=40
|version=adult
|title=Armed Conflicts
}}

== Card #40: Armed Conflicts ==
<center>
[[Fichier:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_40_recto.png|400px]]
We shouldn’t let it come to this...
</center>

==Explanation==
This card is intended to be placed last, as the text suggests.

It can already be said that climate change has been one of the causes of some conflicts, such as in Rwanda or Syria.

In a world that is suffering from all the consequences described in the game, it is hard to imagine that armed conflicts can be avoided.

In 2007, when the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Prize, it was the Nobel Peace Prize. And there are very good reasons for that.

==Other possible links==
==Correction ==
===Causes===
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
===Consequences===
*[[En-en_adult_card_38_human_health|Human Health]]
*[[En-en_adult_card_39_climate_refugees|Climate Refugees]]
==Other possible links==
===Other causes ===

* [[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil fuels]] Armed conflicts linked to fossil energies are more a geopolitical consequence than a direct climatic one. But it may still be interesting to mention this relationship.

===Other consequences===

* [[En-en adult card 1 human activities|Human activities]] It's the final loop of the Club of Rome. All this will eventually regulate itself, but not necessarily peacefully. The players often make this link and sometimes propose to roll up the Fresk to connect the beginning and ending edges. Moreover, it is noteworthy that humankind appears in the first and last cards, but not in the middle of the Fresk.
* [[En-en adult card 5 fossil fuels|Fossil Fuels]] Conflicts are often linked to fossil fuels, but the link is more the other way round.

==Examples of conflicts related to climate change==

''"Is there evidence that it will end in armed conflict?"'' Although this card comes as a logical follow-up to all the previous ones, some players may say that there is no evidence that climate change will lead to armed conflict. However, a study condensing 55 others showed that for every degree of temperature increase, there will be an increase of 2.4% in interpersonal conflicts (domestic violence, aggression, murders...) and 11.3% in intercultural conflicts (riots, ethnic violence, invasions, civil wars or other forms of political instability)<ref>[https://www.nber.org/papers/w20598.pdf Burke, Miguel, Hsiang ''Climate and conflict'']</ref>.

===Situation in Sudan===
Numerous interactions between factors (freshwater resources, disruption of the water cycle, armed conflict): in 2007, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon described the conflict in Darfur (Sudan region) as the "first armed conflict linked to climate change". Water scarcity and changes in the rainfall cycle have contributed to fuelling this conflict. ("the world's first climate change conflict.") The conflict in Sudan has been marked by a particularly high number of civilian casualties, particularly through the poisoning of wells<ref>[https://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf UNEP ''Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment'']</ref>.

===Syria===
It is also multidimensional here (drought, armed conflict, agricultural yield, fresh water resources, climate refugees): the civil war in Syria has been aggravated by the multiple droughts of the last 5 years. Climate models suggest that the severity of the drought is at least partially caused by climate change<ref>[https://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 National Academy of Sciences of the USA ''Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought'']</ref>.

The decisions of previous governments, corruption, mismanagement of natural resources and drought have destroyed the living conditions of Syrians. Particularly through the issue of access to water, because for several consecutive years between 2006 and 2011, disastrous harvests have affected between 2 and 3 million farmers, endangering the food security of one million people through reduced access to wheat, barley and meat. In addition, Syria itself had already hosted refugees from Iraq in the same period. These events have led to almost 1.5 million Syrians having to leave their country.

=== Mali===
The situation in Mali is influenced by the links between armed conflict and drought<ref>[https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076815603234 Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine (2015) ''Climate change, conflict and health, Devin C Bowles, Colin D Butler, Neil Moris'']''etti''</ref>.

Mali has been experiencing droughts since the 1960s. At the same time, nomadic Tuaregs have turned into mercenaries to form an alliance with Libyan President Gaddafi.

The particularly severe drought of 2009 was an aggravating factor in the country's high food and economic instability. Three years later, a rebellion led by the Tuaregs broke out. The latter organised a coup d'état against the Malian government, allowing the Jihadists to take power and at the same time leading to the intervention of the French army, notably because of the various links between the Jihadists of the Islamic state and Boko Haram.

===Analysis of the link between climate change and armed conflict===
Compiling historical data on sub-Saharan conflicts and variations in rainfall, there has been a substantial increase in armed conflicts during warmer years. For example, a 1% increase in temperature leads to a 4.5% increase in the number of civil wars in the same year<ref>[https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/does-climate-change-cause-conflict United Nations University ''Does Climate Change Cause Conflict?'']</ref>. By 2030, according to the study of average data from the 18 climate models used, this will result in a 54% increase in armed conflicts in the region. A compilation of several studies shows that over the last 100 years global warming has been an aggravating factor in armed conflicts in a range between 3% and 20% of cases<ref>[https://news.stanford.edu/2019/06/12/climate-change-cause-armed-conflict/ Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment ''Stanford-led study investigates how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict'']</ref>.

In a multi-factorial analysis of the causes of armed conflicts to date, under a +2°C scenario, the study estimates that the number of armed conflicts would be twice as high; under a +4°C scenario, it would be 5 times higher<ref>[https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31189956/ Nature ''Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict'']</ref>.

The increase in the frequency of famines is strongly linked to the increase in the frequency of wars<ref>[https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30018-2/fulltext THE LANCET VOLUME 393, ISSUE 10175, P981-982, MARCH 09, 2019 ''Back to the root causes of war: food shortages'']</ref>.

Between 1950 and 2001 it is estimated that civil wars were twice as likely to occur in the years corresponding to El Nino compared to the cooler years of La Nina. El Nino could have contributed to 21% of the conflicts during this period<ref>[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4622275/#sec7-0141076815603234title Journal of the Royal Society of Medecine ''Climate change, conflict and health'']</ref>.

==References==
<references />

[[fr:Fr-fr_adulte_carte_40_conflits_armés]]

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